Good Morning! Evercore is predicting that private equity deals will come back in 2024 as funds need more cash for partners. But there’s some drama in the VC world and LPs are doubting venture funds’ startup valuations. The Fed says rate cuts are coming - they just can’t figure out when. Plus, 4 strategies for great conversations, and the secret to overcoming nerves and becoming a stronger negotiator. 

guidde is a GPT-powered tool and browser extension that helps you explain the most complex tasks in seconds with AI generated documentation. Try it for free here.

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Private Equity’s 2023 MVP

In 2023, private equity fundraising took a hit for the second year in a row. And firms have no choice but to get creative with how they raise capital.

Things started to look a little gloomy when institutional investors tightened their belts on private asset allocations. Making matters worse, firms are struggling to hand back cash to investors - and they also have less capital to deploy on new funds.

But in the aftermath of the easy money era, placement agents are swooping in as the unsung heroes, providing a lifeline to private equity firms.

These agents are helping American firms raise capital from smaller pension funds and family offices across Europe and the Middle East.

It’s great news for private equity firms - they usually never needed help finding clients before. EQT and TPG are struggling to close $15-20 billion funds without a little outside help. And while private equity’s usually good at keeping those long-term relationships - finding fresh cash in a brutal fundraising year isn’t necessarily their specialty.

Takeaway: In the nine months through September, the total capital raised by private equity firms was $900 billion. This trajectory suggests that 2023 is expected to lag behind 2022's $1.4 trillion due to a number of factors, including elevated interest rates, inflation apprehensions, and heightened regulatory oversight. But there’s lots of hope that 2024 will be a much better year.

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Magically Create Video Documentation with AI

We all have that one coworker who keeps asking the same thing over and over again, no matter how many times we explain it to them.

It’s time to free yourself from repetitive conversations and explainers with the help of AI-powered documentation. guidde is a GPT-powered tool that helps you explain the most complex tasks in seconds with AI generated documentation:

• Turn boring documentation into stunning visual guides

• Save valuable time by creating video documentation 11x faster

• Share or embed your guide anywhere for your team to see

Simply click capture on our browser extension and the app will automatically generate step-by-step video guides complete with visuals, voiceover and call to actions.

The deal closer? guidde is 100% free.

Try it here and watch your team’s productivity skyrocket.

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Top Reads

• Why 2024 could be a year of American optimism (Axios)

• Evercore sees private equity deals coming back (BB)

• LPs doubt venture funds’ startup valuations (WSJ)

• Monthly job openings hit lowest level since March 2021 (YF)

• Cash home sales in Manhattan hit a record high (Axios)

• Apple leads $383 billion tech rout in reversal from 2023 rally (YF)

• Fed signals rate cuts are coming, but timing uncertain (CNBC)

• US national debt hit record $34 trillion (CNN)

• GM’s 2023 U.S. vehicle sales were its best since 2019 (CNBC)

• These five companies can’t afford a misstep in 2024 (Axios)

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Markets Rundown

Stocks closed lower as the Nasdaq already slipped 1% to start 2024.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Eli Lilly ($LLY) +4% after the pharmaceutical company was named to Bank of America’s ‘stocks to watch.’

• (–) Xerox ($XRX) -12% because the company will cut 15% of its workforce .

• (–) SoFi ($SOFI) -14% after a downgrade by KBW.

Private Dealmaking

• Entropy, a carbon capture developer, raised $150 million

• Aqua Security, a cybersecurity company, raised $60 million

• Radionetics Oncology, a radiopharmaceutical startup, raised $52.5 million 

• Robin AI, a legal copilot, raised $26 million

• Arduino, an open-source hardware and software company, raised $22 million

• SolarDuck, a floating solar developer, raised $16 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

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Misbelief

Misinformation affects all of us on a daily basis—from social media to larger political challenges, from casual conversations in supermarkets, to even our closest relationships. While we recognize the dangers that misinformation poses, the problem is complex—far beyond what policing social media alone can achieve—and too often our limited solutions are shaped by partisan politics and individual interpretations of truth.

In Misbelief, preeminent social scientist Dan Ariely argues that to understand the irrational appeal of misinformation, we must first understand the behavior of “misbelief”—the psychological and social journey that leads people to mistrust accepted truths, entertain alternative facts, and even embrace full-blown conspiracy theories.

Misinformation, it turns out, appeals to something innate in all of us—on the right and the left—and it is only by understanding this psychology that we can blunt its effects. Grounded in years of study as well as Ariely’s own experience as a target of disinformation, Misbelief is an eye-opening and comprehensive analysis of the psychological drivers that cause otherwise rational people to adopt deeply irrational beliefs.

Utilizing the latest research, Ariely reveals the key elements—emotional, cognitive, personality, and social—that drive people down the funnel of false information and mistrust, showing how under the right circumstances, anyone can become a misbeliever.

“Dan Ariely writes in a way that gets us to think and reflect about our human nature.”

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All-cash Home Sales in Manhattan Hit Record High

Share of Manhattan homes bought with cash

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Ranking, Rewarding, and Revolutionizing Open-Source Software

tea is a web3 protocol that’s designed to enhance the sustainability and integrity of the software supply chain by enabling open-source software developers to capture the value that they create. 

Founded by the creator of Homebrew—the largest macOS package manager with tens of millions of users—Max Howell started tea because he’s on a mission to solve the problem of open-source software contributors not being fairly rewarded for their important work.

The tea Protocol uses an algorithm called Proof of Contribution to quantify the impact of a software project across the software ecosystem. The algorithm assigns each project a dynamic score—referred to as the project’s teaRank—based on the project’s orientation within, and utilization by the software ecosystem over time. 

Find out what’s brewing and join the OSS rewards revolution by getting involved with the communi’tea!

Sign up for the tea Incentivized Testnet waitlist here.

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Think Again

"When people reflect on what it takes to be mentally fit, the first idea that comes to mind is usually intelligence. The smarter you are, the more complex the problems you can solve— and the faster you can solve them.

Intelligence is traditionally viewed as the ability to think and learn. Yet in a turbulent world, there’s another set of cognitive skills that might matter more: the ability to rethink and unlearn.

Mental horsepower doesn’t guarantee mental dexterity. No matter how much brainpower you have, if you lack the motivation to change your mind, you’ll miss many occasions to think again.

Research reveals that the higher you score on an IQ test, the more likely you are to fall for stereotypes, because you’re faster at recognizing patterns. And recent experiments suggest that the smarter you are, the more you might struggle to update your beliefs.

The curse of knowledge is that it closes your mind to what you don’t know. Good judgment depends on having the skill— and the will— to open your mind. A hallmark of wisdom is knowing when it’s time to abandon some of the most cherished parts of your identity."

Source: Adam Grant

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Short Squeez Picks

• 4 key strategies for great conversations

• How to overcome nerves to become a stronger negotiator 

• A former CIA agent shared her #1 secret to a highly productive week

• Patagonia gave a masterclass on how to treat your people

• 10 useful time management tips

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Memes of the Day