Good Morning! The TACO Trade is back: Trump announced a 2-week ceasefire contingent on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices plunging 19% to under $100/barrel. Bill Ackman is targeting Universal Music Group with a $65B merger proposal. Blackstone closed a record $10B credit fund. And Morgan Stanley is pushing into private credit even as investors pull back.

SpaceX is set to kick off its IPO roadshow the week of June 8. Used car prices have climbed to their highest level since summer 2023. And Citi is setting aggressive targets for bankers in its wealth management division.

Plus: Movie theaters post their strongest run since COVID, and 15 questions to figure out if you’re the problem at work.

How reliable are LLMs for financial modeling? Learn more here.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Private Equity Winter

The private equity industry entered 2026 with low expectations for fundraising, but the first quarter managed to come in below even those. PE firms globally raised just $86 billion for buyout, growth, and turnaround funds in Q1, putting the industry on pace to fall short of last year’s already disappointing $423 billion total, which would make 2026 the worst fundraising year since 2016. 

While deals and exits are recovering, fundraising is not. And the gap between those two things is becoming the defining story of 2026. The causes are layered, and none of them are going away quickly.

Between the private credit stress spooking LPs or the Iran War putting stress on Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds, the headwinds are real. And the “denominator effect” from 2022 has never fully resolved, and LPs are still waiting for distributions before they commit to new funds.

The one bright spot is size, and the biggest funds, especially at the megafund level, are still getting done. Blackstone closed a $6.3 billion life sciences fund. Greenbriar closed a $5.4 billion buyout fund. And KKR just announced the close of its North America Fund XIV at $23 billion, the largest fund in the firm’s history.

But while mega-funds are still flying off the shelf, everything below them is struggling. That bifurcation tells you something important: LPs aren’t abandoning private equity, they’re concentrating their bets on the platforms they trust most and cutting everything else.

Takeaway: Private equity’s fundraising problem is really a trust problem after LPs committed enormous capital in 2020 and 2021 at peak valuations, got back less than expected, and are now being asked to reload before the cycle has fully cleared. The firms at the top of the food chain, like Blackstone, KKR, and Apollo, will probably be fine. But the mid-market and emerging managers are going to have a difficult year. When KKR raises $23 billion, and the whole industry only raises $86 billion in a quarter, the math on who’s winning and who’s losing is pretty clear.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

PRESENTED BY MOSAIC

How Reliable Are LLMs for Financial Modeling?

AI has transformed how Wall Street handles language-based work. Summarizing earnings calls, processing CIMs, drafting memos… for tasks like these, LLMs are definitely a game changer.

But financial modeling is a different problem entirely.

LLMs are probabilistic by nature. Run the same model twice and you get two different answers. For a summary of an expert call, that's fine. For an LBO supporting a multi-billion dollar investment decision, that's a structural problem.

A financial model needs to be 100% correct. A 99% accurate LBO is still a wrong LBO. And LLMs are nowhere near 99%...

AI adds more randomness to a system that needs less.

What firms actually need is purpose-built software where the math is locked in and never in doubt. Not AI making it up as it goes.

That's the approach Mosaic takes, fully automating the LBO process so the output is the same every single time. The questions on a deal should be about the business, not whether the math is working correctly.

Read the full article here.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• U.S. oil price plunges nearly 19% to below $100 after Trump agrees to two-week ceasefire with Iran (CNBC)

• Universal Music stock rises after Pershing Square's $64 billion takeover proposal (CNBC)

• Blackstone hits $10 billion cap for opportunistic credit fund (BB)

• Morgan Stanley plans private credit fund even as investors flee (BB)

• SpaceX lays out IPO details, targets early June roadshow (CNBC)

• Used car prices rise to highest point since summer 2023 (CNBC)

• Citi sets aggressive targets for bankers in wealth management unit (FT)

• Theaters flex strongest run since COVID (Axios)

• Wall Street banks line up financing for €1.5 billion sushi deal (BB)

• Goldman says it’s ready to pounce as retail flees private credit (BB)

• Delta raises checked bag fees $10 amid jet fuel price surge, joining other carriers (CNBC)

• Broadcom confirms deal to ship Google TPU chips to Anthropic as revenue run rate tops $30 billion (BB)

• Pimco weighs $14 billion debt deal for Oracle data center (YF)

• MrBeast's digital push runs into a skeptical Elizabeth Warren (BB)

• College football, Cinco de Mayo drive record US avocado imports (BB)

• Anthropic launches cybersecurity partnership with Nvidia, Microsoft, other tech giants after latest AI model finds 'thousands' of previously unknown bugs (YF)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Stocks edged higher ahead of a key U.S.–Iran deadline, with markets leaning toward cautious optimism

• Communication services and energy led gains, reflecting both risk-on and oil dynamics

• Bond yields moved lower, signaling some easing in near-term stress

• Oil pulled back after briefly spiking, highlighting continued volatility around supply risks

• Dollar weakened, suggesting a slight unwind of safe-haven positioning

Geopolitics at a Tipping Point

• Markets are focused on whether a deal materializes or tensions escalate

• The deadline adds urgency, but outcomes remain highly uncertain and fluid

• Oil’s sharp swings reflect how sensitive markets are to any shift in expectations

• Even with elevated prices, forward markets suggest this may still be a temporary shock

Labor Market Still Steady

• Hiring trends continue to show a gradual but stable pace of job growth

• The labor market remains defined by slower hiring, not rising layoffs

• This dynamic supports near-full employment despite cooling conditions

• Energy-driven risks are rising, but no meaningful deterioration yet

Under the Hood of Growth

• Headline manufacturing data softened, but core demand remains intact

• Weakness was concentrated in more volatile categories, not broad-based

• Ongoing AI investment and business spending continue to support activity

• The economy still appears to be slowing at the margins, not rolling over

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Avis Budget ($CAR) +20% after a short squeeze; strong tailwinds for the rental car industry because of TSA delays.

• (+) UnitedHealth ($UNH) +9% because Medicare agreed to lift payments next year.

• (–) Axon Enterprises ($AXON) -10% after the company’s new AI tools failed to impress investors.

Prediction Markets

• Watch Wednesday: New Rolex Collection

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Firmus, an Australian AI infrastructure company, raised $505 million

• Hermeus, a maker of hypersonic military jets, raised $350 million

• Starfish Space, a developer of robotic spacecraft that services satellites, raised $110 million

• Stipple Bio, an oncology biotech, raised $100 million

• Modus, which buys majority stakes in advisory entities affiliated with accounting firms, raised $85 million

• Endovascular Engineering, a developer of a pulmonary embolism treatment device, raised $80 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

The Secret Language of Work

Description:
A practical, no-fluff guide from Erin McGoff that gives you the exact words to use in high-stakes workplace situations. From negotiating offers to pushing back on deadlines, managing up, or navigating awkward conversations, the book provides clear scripts and frameworks you can apply immediately. It focuses on removing uncertainty, building confidence, and helping you communicate with precision in moments that matter most.

Book Length: 256 pages
Release Date: March 10, 2026

Ideal For:
Professionals looking to communicate more effectively, navigate workplace dynamics, and handle difficult conversations with confidence and clarity.

Confidence at work often comes down to knowing exactly what to say and when to say it.

DAILY VISUAL

Reddit Runs AI

PRESENTED BY F2

MD-Level Context. On Demand.

Private markets run on fragmented workflows. A different tool for research, another for models, another for managing files. Context gets rebuilt from scratch on every deal.

F2's Global Agent sits above all of it. Connect your files, market data, and portfolio context in one place. Research, analyze, and benchmark across deals -- with every output cited back to its source.

Cross-deal intuition that takes decades to build, now available on demand.

Explore Global Agent today.

DAILY ACUMEN

Factory Settings

The part of your brain making investment decisions during a downturn was built for a world where the most pressing problem was whether something with teeth was going to kill you near the water. It has not been updated since.

The dread you feel watching a portfolio drop three percent is the same subroutine that kept your ancestors alive on the African savanna, firing in a context it was never designed for.

The specific bug is not just that recent pain feels larger than it is. It is that the brain extrapolates it forward automatically, without warning, and with complete confidence. A bad month becomes a permanent new reality in your head before you have even consciously decided to think that.

There is no error message. Just a quiet, authoritative feeling that something has fundamentally broken, arriving precisely at the moment when the historical data says you should be leaning in.

The fix is not discipline in the way most people mean it. It is not gritting your teeth and ignoring the feeling. It is genuinely understanding that the feeling is software running correctly in the wrong environment, and that the version of you making decisions at peak dread is not the most informed version of you. It is just the loudest one.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• 2 proven leadership qualities to make people instantly like you

• 5 things couples in emotionally secure relationships do

• 7 strategies to embrace criticism as a gift

• 5 neuroscience-backed tips for beating procrastination

• 15 questions that reveal if you’re the problem at work

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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