Good morning! Hope y’all had a great Thanksgiving and had lots of pecan pie. HSBC says OpenAI may need to raise $207B by 2030 at its current pace. Alibaba is launching $500 AI smart glasses to take on Meta. And the U.S. job market looks rough, unless you’re an executive.

Fortress and Ares face a potential wipeout on a portable-toilet deal. A former Jefferies banker was charged with insider trading. And NYC’s comptroller wants to pull a $42B BlackRock mandate over climate concerns.

Campbell’s fired an exec who called its food “s--- for poor people.” MIT researchers say AI could replace 11.7% of U.S. jobs. And Apollo’s PE co-head says the era of “low-quality returns” is over.

Plus: JPMorgan sees the S&P 500 hitting 7,500 by 2026 (10% upside), with potential to break 8,000 (18% upside) if cuts keep flowing, and what it actually takes to build a $5B brand.

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SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Private Equity’s Biggest Supporter

Private equity is grinding through its weakest cycle since the financial crisis. Exits have stalled. Fundraising has slowed to a crawl. Distributions feel like a drought. Most global pensions are trimming exposure and hoping their marks materialize at some point.

CalPERS is doing the opposite. The $690B pension just raised its private-equity target from 13% to 17%, and its actual allocation has already climbed to 18% this year. While most LPs are tapping the brakes, CalPERS is all-in.

Other allocators have capped PE at ~10% because higher rates and stale marks have widened the gap between paper values and real exit prices. Even former CalPERS officials are warning that the fund may be paying full freight for valuations that don’t translate into liquidity, with performance fees tied to numbers that could deflate.

But new CIO Stephen Gilmore isn’t buying it. Since arriving from New Zealand’s sovereign wealth fund, he’s shifted away from high-fee mega-buyouts and toward growth, venture, and low-cost co-investments.

Since 2022, CalPERS’ PE book has doubled from $50B to $103B across ~400 vehicles, and co-investments alone have cut fee drag by about 10% over the past 2.5 years.

Performance is backing him up. CalPERS returned 14.3% in private equity in the year through June, the strongest among the 30 largest U.S. public pensions, after ranking seventeenth last year.

Gilmore’s view: CalPERS has a multi-decade investment horizon and the scale to buy when others cannot. Size becomes an advantage in co-invest situations: GPs call CalPERS first when they need a big check fast.

Takeaway: While PE struggles with stalled exits, slow fundraising, and questionable marks, CalPERS is leaning in. The largest pension in America is making a contrarian bet that today’s pain is temporary and long-duration exposure will pay off. Critics call it risky. CalPERS calls it disciplined buying and being greedy when others are fearful.

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The Coverd Card launches early 2026 with the same interactive reward structure built into every transaction.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

• HSBC says OpenAI needs to raise at least $207bn by 2030 so it can continue to lose money (FT)

• Alibaba takes on Meta with $500 AI smart glasses (CNBC)

• Executive roles abound despite tightening job market (BB)

• Fortress, Ares face total loss on Platinum Equity toilet deal (BB)

• Ex-Jefferies banker charged with insider trading by UK watchdog (FT)

• NYC Comptroller Brad Lander moves to drop a $42B BlackRock mandate because of “inadequate” climate plans (BB)

• Campbell Soup ousts senior exec after viral mocking its own products and “poor people meat” audio leaks (CBS)

• MIT study finds AI can already replace 11.7% of the U.S. workforce (CNBC)

• Apollo’s private equity co-head says era of “low-quality returns” is officially ending (BB)

• JPMorgan sees S&P 500 hitting 7,500 in 2026, with upside past 8,000 if the Fed keeps cutting rates (YF)

• Cannabis industry revels in pre-holiday buzz (CNN)

• OpenAI projects over 200M paid subscribers by 2030 (TI)

• Permira explores takeover of German tour operator FTI as private credit expands in Europe (BB)

• Blackstone nears $4B acquisition of MacLean Power Systems (BB)

• Tech analyst Dan Ives flags ten “must-own” AI stocks and says fears of an AI bubble are misplaced (YF)

• Liz Truss returns with an investment pitch aimed at ultra-high-net-worth investors (BB)

• AI data-center boom is driving up U.S. electricity bills, utilities (CNBC)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Stocks finished higher Wednesday, extending this week’s rebound as solid data on labor and business investment boosted sentiment.

• The S&P 500 is up more than 3% for the week, recovering from last week’s 2% pullback.

• Technology, utilities, and consumer staples all contributed to the day’s gains, showing strength across both growth and value styles.

• Bond yields held steady, with the 10-year Treasury closing around 4.0%.

• Asian and European markets were broadly higher overnight, continuing a global equity rally into the holiday-shortened week.

Economic Data Highlights

• Initial jobless claims fell to 216,000, below expectations of 230,000, signaling few layoffs despite softer hiring trends.

• Continuing claims were steady at 1.96 million, showing a still-stable labor market.

• Claims remain well below the 30-year average of 364,000, indicating healthy conditions supportive of consumer spending.

• Durable goods orders rose 0.5% in September, matching forecasts and led by a jump in communications equipment, possibly reflecting robust AI-related infrastructure investment.

• Overall, the data show resilient private-sector demand and strong capital spending heading into Q4.

Global Market Perspective

• The S&P 500 is up 16% year-to-date, tracking for a third straight year of 15%+ annual gains.

• International markets have also performed strongly, with Germany, France, Japan, and the U.K. hitting all-time highs in 2025.

• The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. Index has returned 26% year-to-date, outperforming U.S. equities, aided by renewed economic momentum in Europe and resilient demand in Asia.

• Emerging markets, especially Korea and China, have led gains, supported by strength in tech sectors.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Petco ($WOOF) +14% after strong quarterly earnings.

• (+) Robinhood ($HOOD) +11% because the fintech company will launch a futures and derivatives exchange.

• (–) Workday ($WDAY) -8% after disappointing earnings and weak subscriber guidance.

Prediction Markets

• Odds of a 25 bps cut have shot up to 85%

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Naver bought Upbit, a crypto exchange, for $10.3 billion

• Ursa Major Technologies, a rocket-engine startup, raised $100 million 

• Gate Bioscience, a protein-elimination biotech, raised $65 million

• Gridware, an electric-grid protection startup, raised $55 million

• Numeric, an accounting automation startup, raised $51 million

• Agentio, a creator-led advertising platform, raised $40 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

The Billionaire Blueprint

Description: A deep dive into how 40 of the world’s wealthiest individuals think, act, and build enduring success. The book reveals their decision-making patterns, investment philosophies, and mindset frameworks — showing how discipline, patience, and conviction separate them from the crowd.

Book Length: 330 pages

Ideal For: Entrepreneurs, investors, and ambitious professionals seeking to learn how the ultra-rich approach risk, opportunity, and wealth creation.

“Success among the ultra-wealthy isn’t luck — it’s the result of small, smart decisions made with consistency and conviction.”

DAILY VISUAL

Americans Eating Less Turkey

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Why Private Credit Can Outperform Public Equity for Accredited Investors

Private credit offers three advantages public markets can’t match: real collateral backing principal, yields up to 20%, and access to parts of the economy stocks don’t reach.

The numbers explain why. 87% of US companies and 95% of European companies with $100 million+ in revenues are privately held. Public equity gives you access to a fraction of available opportunities.

Percent connects accredited investors to curated private credit deals with low correlation to public market volatility. The platform features opportunities with potential annualized returns up to 20%, terms as short as six months, and full transparency into underlying data.

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DAILY ACUMEN

Patience Dividend

Most people overestimate what they can do in a week and underestimate what they can do in five years.

They sprint through everything, mistaking speed for progress. But the world doesn’t reward the fastest mover; it rewards the one who keeps moving after everyone else gets tired.

Patience is not passive. It’s the quiet conviction that consistent effort, even when invisible, will one day compound into something extraordinary. Every meaningful outcome, from wealth to wisdom, has a gestation period. You cannot microwave greatness.

The people who win long-term aren’t the most gifted or connected. They’re the ones who learned to wait without losing momentum. To stay steady when results lag. To keep watering when nothing seems to grow.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• The perfect stocking stuffer for the high-performer*

• Why I stopped bringing my whole self to work

• What it takes to build a $5 billion brand

• Why purpose is foundational in leadership

• How highly successful people talk to their bosses

• How 45-minute blocks help you focus better

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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