Good Morning! Apollo walked back comments from exec John Zito after he said, “I literally think all the marks are wrong,” on private equity valuations. xAI is recruiting bankers to train Grok on financial modeling. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang unveiled new chips and said they could drive $1 trillion in sales through 2027.

Nebius jumped 14% on a $27B Meta infrastructure deal. European funding rounds have never been bigger, fueled by a wave of US cash crossing the Atlantic in the AI race. And data centers have officially overtaken offices in US construction spending.

Plus: The SEC is preparing a proposal to eliminate quarterly reporting for public companies, and Manhattan median rent hit an all-time high of $5,000 in February.

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SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Private Equity's AI Distribution Engine

Last month, OpenAI raised $40 billion at an $840 billion valuation. But the real question isn't the money, it's whether ChatGPT can evolve from productivity novelty into durable corporate infrastructure. Enterprise sales are slow and procurement cycles are long.

OpenAI needed a shortcut and it found one inside private equity.

The structure: a joint venture with TPG, Bain Capital, and Brookfield (some of the largest PE firms in the world) valued at roughly $10 billion pre-money, with the firms committing $4 billion combined.

TPG is reportedly the lead. In exchange, the PE firms get equity stakes, board seats, and a say in how OpenAI's enterprise tools get deployed across their portfolios.

The capital is almost beside the point. What these firms bring is hundreds of portfolio companies across software, healthcare, industrials, and services where AI adoption can be accelerated from the boardroom. That converts a normal enterprise sales effort into top-down distribution across sponsor-owned businesses at scale.

It's also a defensive move. Anthropic is running the same play with Blackstone and Permira. The race to own enterprise AI distribution is already underway. AI is now a distribution war, not just a model war.

The capital structure is worth noting. OpenAI is offering preferred equity, priority returns, downside protection, and governance rights. Anthropic is reportedly offering common.

OpenAI isn't asking PE firms to make a moonshot bet. It's offering them a structured position in the commercialization layer, with preferential economics built in if enterprise adoption disappoints. Less "bet on AI." More "get paid to help AI win."

Takeaway: TPG and Bain entered this as investors. They're leaving as channel partners. OpenAI, which has raised capital like a startup, is now distributing like a buyout firm, embedding itself directly into the ownership structure of the businesses it wants to reach. The $840 billion valuation is the flashy headline. The joint venture is the more important story: it's how OpenAI actually tries to justify it.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Top Apollo executive sounds off on ‘arrogance’ in private markets (WSJ)

• xAI is recruiting Wall Street bankers, traders, and credit analysts (BB)

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang sees $1 trillion in orders for Blackwell and Vera Rubin through 2027 (CNBC)

• Meta signs $27 billion AI infrastructure deal with Nebius (CNBC)

• Funding rounds have never been bigger in Europe thanks to US cash (BB) 

• Data centers overtake offices in US construction spending shift (BB)

• SEC prepares proposal to shift public companies toward semiannual reporting (YF)

• Manhattan median rent hit all-time high of $5,000 in February (BU)

• California remote workers take their offices to the beach (NYP)

• State Department cuts fee to renounce US citizenship 80% to $450 (Fox)

• The ultimate fashion crime for finance bros? Dressing better than the boss (WSJ)

• He earns $1,000 a job — and he's a car dealer's worst nightmare (WSJ)

• ‘We’re past the $200mn threshold’: the rise of super-super prime property (FT)

• The Pentagon's presentation used to recruit Wall Street investors (NYT)

• Private equity’s private credit problem (NYT)

• How Trump used the presidency to silence planes over Mar-a-Lago (BB)

• The stock market looks wild under the surface (Axios)

• Peloton launches bike and tread for gyms (CNBC)

• Strait of Hormuz closure threatens generic drug prescriptions (CNBC)

• Millennium pulls $1 billion allocation from hedge fund Scopia (BB)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Rebound

• U.S. equities moved higher to start the week, with the S&P 500 +1%

• The index is now down just ~2% year-to-date after recent volatility

• WTI crude declined to around $94 per barrel, easing pressure on markets

• Lower oil prices helped drive a bond rally, with Treasury yields falling 4–5 bps across the curve

• The U.S. dollar weakened as risk sentiment improved

• Oil pullback driven by expectations of improved tanker flow through the Strait of Hormuz and potential additional strategic reserve releases

Economic Momentum

• Manufacturing output rose 0.2% month-over-month in February, following a strong 0.8% gain in January (revised higher)

• ISM Manufacturing PMI continues to signal a return to expansion after prior weakness

• Early Q1 growth data suggests a solid start to the year as shutdown-related headwinds fade

• However, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey weakened, driven by softer current conditions

• Business sentiment remains sensitive to energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty

• The key question is how much the recent oil shock impacts near-term economic activity

Fed Watch

• The Federal Reserve meets Wednesday, with markets focused on policy signals

• Futures pricing now implies one 25 bps rate cut in 2026, down from earlier expectations for multiple cuts

• This aligns with prior FOMC projections from December

• Investors will look for guidance on how the Fed balances:

  • Inflation risks from higher oil prices

  • Growth risks from geopolitical uncertainty

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Nebius Group ($NBIS) +15% after the AI cloud company announced a landmark $27 billion infrastructure deal with Meta, one of the largest compute-procurement contracts in history.

• (+) Micron ($MU) +4% because the chipmaker announced plans to build a second manufacturing facility in Taiwan to expand supply of leading-edge DRAM chips.

• (–) Mosaic ($MOS) -6% after fertilizer stocks sold off on easing concerns around Middle East supply disruptions that had briefly boosted the sector.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Prediction Markets

• March Madness Week: Number of upsets in first round

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Public Storage will acquire National Storage Affiliates for $10.5 billion 

• Juicebox, a recruiting platform, raised $80 million

• Vitestro, a robotic blood draw technology company, raised $70 million

• Jazz, a data loss prevention cybersecurity startup, raised $61 million

• Gumloop, a platform for employees to build AI agents, raised $50 million

• Cryptio, a digital asset ERP platform, raised $45 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Blank Space

Description: A sharp and wide ranging analysis of how culture has evolved in the twenty first century. Marx explores how globalization, the internet, and shifting economic forces have transformed taste, identity, and creativity. From niche subcultures to global trends, the book explains how culture is produced, distributed, and consumed in an era where everything is both hyper specific and widely accessible.

Book Length: 336 pages
Release Date: November 18, 2025

Ideal For: Cultural observers, marketers, creators, and anyone interested in how modern culture is shaped and why trends spread the way they do.

In a world of infinite choice, culture is no longer dictated from the top down. It emerges from the constant interaction between niche communities and global platforms.

DAILY VISUAL

New Business Formation is Booming

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DAILY ACUMEN

Attention

Whatever you give your attention to, grows in your mind, regardless of whether it deserves to. Outrage, anxiety, comparison, grievance: none of these require your participation, but all of them will expand indefinitely if you keep feeding them.

This is not about toxic positivity or pretending things aren't hard. It is about recognizing that attention is the scarcest resource you have, and that most of the world is competing aggressively for it without your best interests anywhere in the equation.

What you focus on is not a passive thing that happens to you. It is a choice you make hundreds of times a day, mostly without noticing.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• Highly confident people do these 10 things 

• Goldman finds 30% boost between AI and productivity in 2 specific use cases

• The big benefits of small talk

• How to get shredded

• Jeff Bezos says lifelong success comes down to this mindset

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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