Good Morning! JPMorgan is creating a new investment banking team focused on small-cap companies valued between $100 million and $500 million. Michaels has gone from a "grandmother's store" to an unlikely success story under Apollo. And BofA handed OpenAI a $520 million credit line, looking to cash in at IPO and secure a role in the listing.

Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin was valued at $130 billion in its first outside fundraising round. Manhattan office leasing is seeing its strongest gains in 20 years. And Nvidia is now the cheapest it's been since before the AI boom, after losing roughly $1 trillion in market value in less than two months.

Plus: Delta is launching "basic business" fares without lounge access or seat selection, coffee prices are expected to stay high as volatility lingers, and why just being yourself is terrible advice.

The chips that store AI’s data are running short, and the trade has been on fire. Learn more about the new REX Shares memory ETF.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

PE Becoming Heat Detectives

Private equity has a new question before signing a check: can this business survive the weather? For decades, buyout models mostly treated the climate as someone else’s problem. But an 18% IRR does not help much when the warehouse is underwater, the insurance bill doubles, or employees cannot work outside, and funds are now figuring that out the expensive way.

Firms are now screening more than $700 billion of private equity assets for heat risk alone, and they are paying real money for answers. Climate analytics firms charge hundreds of thousands of dollars a year to estimate future insurance bills and business interruptions.

EQT has analyzed more than 23,000 infrastructure assets, and Carlyle has even built weather risk into its valuation framework. So the new diligence checklist is becoming leverage, customer concentration, and whether the roof survives a typhoon.

Data centers have made things urgent because, inconveniently, computers do not love extreme heat, which is a slight issue when Wall Street is pouring hundreds of billions into the asset class. And when your hottest infrastructure trade has a physical vulnerability to the thing getting worse every year, someone eventually has to run the numbers. 

And because finance cannot discover a new risk without immediately creating a fee pool around it, there is now a trade in measuring the weather too. The climate forecasting and risk assessment market could double to roughly $13 billion by 2030, growing about 15% a year. Venture investors are backing satellite monitoring companies, while PE is eyeing hazard-warning businesses with recurring revenue.

Takeaway: Private equity investors are by no means turning into Greta Thunberg, but they’re figuring out if weather could blow up the investment before the investment blows up. If heat raises operating costs, floods make insurance unaffordable, or a storm knocks out a key asset halfway through the hold period, that belongs in the model. The funds that build it in early will underwrite better, and funds that ignore it will find out about it later, usually at the worst possible moment. And the firms selling heat maps to everyone in the meantime? Probably the cleanest trade in the whole thing.

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One Ticker for a 2X Daily Play on the Hottest Trade in Chips

Memory chips (DRAM and NAND) are what let AI systems hold and move data, and right now demand from data centers is blowing past what manufacturers can produce. That shortage has sent memory prices, and memory stocks, soaring in 2026.

The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) launched in April and rode that wave to become the most successful ETF debut in history: up roughly 180% and past $20B in assets in just over two months. Last week its top holding, Micron, posted the best quarter in the memory industry’s history, with gross margins north of 80%.

Now there’s a leveraged version. The Roundhill T-REX 2X Long DRAM Daily Target ETF (RAM) is live, seeking 200% of DRAM’s daily performance. It comes from the same T-REX franchise behind the first 2X NVIDIA ETF, built in partnership with Roundhill, the issuer of DRAM. RAM resets daily, and monthly options are available.

Visit rexshares.com/ram for the prospectus and risk disclosures. Investing in RAM is not equivalent to investing in DRAM.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• JPMorgan plans to target small-company deals as part of M&A push (WSJ)

• Michaels goes from 'grandmother's store' to unlikely success under Apollo (BB)

• OpenAI IPO: BofA U-turns on loan for ChatGPT maker to secure role in listing (BB)

• Bezos' Blue Origin valued at $130 billion in first outside fundraising round (CNBC)

• Manhattan office leasing sees strongest gains in 20 years (CNBC)

• Nvidia's $1 trillion slide sends valuation to pre-AI boom levels (BB)

• Delta's Basic Business offers a cheaper luxury ticket with fewer perks (WSJ)

• Coffee prices to stay high as volatility lingers, Lavazza says (BB)

• Why Smucker's $5 billion bet on the Twinkie flopped (WSJ)

• SpaceX stock closes below debut price at $148 in two-day slide (CNBC)

• Michael Burry bets on sportsbooks DraftKings, Flutter (CNBC)

• Harley-Davidson's credit ratings get cut to junk by S&P (BB)

• Susquehanna puts up $500 million for 'hedging' World Cup games (BB)

• KKR's Arctos raises $6.2 billion to back private markets managers (WSJ)

• Whoop hires Nike marketing veteran as wearables wars heat up (WSJ)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. equities closed lower as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions weighed on investor sentiment, with the Dow underperforming while the Nasdaq finished little changed.

• WTI crude oil rose 4.8% to around $74 per barrel, though it remains well below the highs reached earlier this year.

• Treasury yields moved higher as rising oil prices renewed inflation concerns.

• The U.S. launched additional strikes on Iran, while Iran responded with attacks on military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.

Geopolitics

• Renewed tensions pushed oil prices higher, though supplies have continued to recover following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

• The latest escalation comes after President Trump declared the U.S.-Iran ceasefire over, raising uncertainty around future peace talks.

• Despite the renewed conflict, oil prices remain well below their March peak.

Technology

• Semiconductor stocks rebounded after recent weakness, helping the Nasdaq outperform broader markets.

• Second-quarter earnings expectations remain strong, with the technology sector projected to deliver the highest revenue growth and approximately 63% earnings growth among S&P 500 sectors.

• Investors continue to monitor AI-related spending trends ahead of the upcoming earnings season.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Penguin Solutions ($PENG) +25% after crushing Q3 estimates, while raising full-year guidance and issuing a preliminary FY2027 outlook.

• (+) Broadcom ($AVGO) +5% because the company signed multi-year agreements with Apple through 2031.

• (–) Bath & Body Works ($BBWI) -6% after Goldman Sachs downgraded to Sell with a $19 price target, citing weakening brand engagement.

Prediction Markets

• The answer largely depends on how far the US makes it.

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Pearl Health, a Medicare-focused health tech company, raised $110 million

• EDX Markets, an institutional crypto trading platform, raised $76 million

• Warp, a payroll compliance and employee management startup, raised $60 million

• BIZAY, a Portuguese platform for customized products, raised $55 million

• CameraMatics, an Irish developer of fleet safety solutions, raised around $53 million 

• Daloopa, a provider of source-linked data for investment firms, raised $47 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

The Other Side of Change

Description:
A thoughtful and science-backed exploration from Maya Shankar of how unexpected life events reshape who we are. Drawing on psychology, neuroscience, and conversations with remarkable individuals who have navigated profound change, the book examines how setbacks, disruptions, and unplanned detours can become catalysts for growth. Rather than resisting uncertainty, it offers practical insights into adapting with resilience, finding meaning through transition, and embracing the person we become when life doesn't follow the script.

Book Length: 304 pages
Release Date: September 9, 2025

Ideal For:
Anyone navigating major life or career transitions, seeking resilience, or interested in the psychology of personal growth and adaptation.

The most meaningful transformations often begin with the plans we never wanted to change.

DAILY VISUAL

Raymond James $800 Price Target

PRESENTED BY STELRIX

A Private Bank in Your Wallet

Family offices and private banking clients have accessed capital by borrowing against their assets for generations, using their portfolios as collateral while keeping investments intact and compounding. Traditional securities-backed lines require $100,000 minimums and weeks of underwriting, keeping this approach exclusive to institutional relationships.

Stelrix built that same infrastructure into a sleek gold card that connects directly to your existing brokerage. This equates to dynamic buying power and smart APR. Your credit and holdings remain untouched, so they can continue generating returns while you access spending power in real time. Limits are dynamic, based on your portfolio value. It’s like a private bank in your pocket.

Reserve your gold card today.

DAILY ACUMEN

Selective Memory

Winners write their own history, and the most dangerous person they mislead is themselves. After a good outcome, the mind quietly rewrites the story, editing out the luck, the near-misses, the moments it almost went the other way, until what was actually a close call becomes, in memory, a masterstroke of skill and foresight. The revision feels like honesty. It is anything but.

This is why success is such a poor teacher. It hands you a distorted account of why you won, crediting your judgment for what was partly circumstance, and then you carry that flawed lesson into the next decision with more confidence than the evidence ever justified.

The people who learn the most from winning are the ones who force themselves to remember how uncertain it felt at the time, before the outcome was known. The honest question after any success is not what did I do right, but how much of this would have happened anyway, and the answer is usually humbling.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• Why are dress sneakers everywhere?

• The best management tips on decision-making

• How to better measure college ROI

• Why just being yourself is terrible advice

• 10 best books for career growth and success 

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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