Good Morning! Nvidia posted another monster quarter, with the AI boom sending data center revenue up 75%. Joshua Kushner’s Thrive Capital invested ~$1B in OpenAI at a $285B valuation in December, a preferential deal as OpenAI finalizes a new round that could value it at $800B.

UBS warns private credit defaults could hit 15% if AI aggressively disrupts corporate borrowers. David Tepper sent a scathing letter to Whirlpool over shareholder value destruction. JPMorgan hiked its 2026 tech budget by nearly $2 billion.

Plus: Morgan Stanley says AI panic is creating stock-picking opportunities, private equity’s $1.1B hospice bet, and how your personality shapes career success.

Blueflame now has agentic content creation to accelerate your deal diligence and presentation. Request a demo today.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Parents “Redshirting” 8th Graders for NIL

While most white-collar workers worry about AI taking their jobs, some parents are focused on maximizing their eighth grader’s lifetime earnings.

A growing number of families are holding their sons back a year in middle school, not because they’re struggling academically, but to gain a physical edge in high school sports that could translate into scholarships or even seven-figure NIL deals.

Parents are essentially buying their kids an extra year of development now, so they can show up to ninth grade older, bigger, and already “recruitable.” A reclassified freshman might hit a growth spurt, get stronger, and compete more effectively against 15- and 16-year-olds. When everyone else is doing it, a true 14-year-old can be at a real disadvantage.

It’s not cheap. One parent reportedly paid $20,000 for a holdback year. A “reclass specialist” charges $6,000 to $13,000 annually to guide families through the process, and says she regularly turns away overly ambitious dads demanding a 6’3 outcome from 5’5 and 5’6 genetics.

The ROI can be compelling. A full scholarship at a private college can exceed $70,000 per year all-in. In football and basketball, families chase full-ride economics. In sports like baseball and lacrosse, it’s usually partial scholarships.

NIL is game changer too. While top earners like Livvy Dunne and Arch Manning make millions, median payouts are far lower. Still, if a player lands a $70k scholarship plus $25–50k per year in NIL, the upside can justify the extra year, especially in a system that increasingly rewards older, more physically mature freshmen.

Takeaway: Only about 2% of high school athletes play Division I, and far fewer earn meaningful NIL money. But in youth sports, redshirting is shifting from fringe to normalized. Families are paying for an extra year of development in a system that disproportionately rewards early physical maturity.

For a tiny minority, it may pay off. For most, it’s still a very expensive lottery ticket, just with private trainers and a reclass consultant on retainer.

PRESENTED BY BLUEFLAME AI

The Deal Content Engine

Introducing agentic content creation in Blueflame AI.

Generate Microsoft Excel sheets, PowerPoint presentations, and Word documents with Blueflame AI’s agentic content creation tools.

Automatically synthesize, structure, and format professional-grade outputs including pitch decks, CIM summaries, and financial models, all in one workflow.

This is AI designed for how deal teams actually work: fast, iterative, and under pressure.

Spend less time polishing outputs and more time on strategic thinking. What will you create first?

Request a demo to see how Blueflame AI accelerates content creation, analysis, and execution across your investment workflow.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Nvidia reports earnings and guidance beat as AI boom pushes data center revenue up 75% (CNBC)

• Thrive Capital invested about $1 billion in OpenAI at a $285B valuation (CNBC)

• UBS now sees private credit defaults reaching 15% in worst case (BB)

• David Tepper sends scathing letter to Whirlpool for destroying shareholder value, pushes for changes (CNBC)

• JPMorgan Chase hikes 2026 tech budget by almost $2B (AOL)

• AI panic is opportunity for stock pickers, Morgan Stanley says (YF)

• Private equity makes risky $1.1bn bet on hospice care (FT)

• Salesforce shares sink on mixed guidance as company commits $50 billion for buybacks (CNBC)

• Anthropic abandons industry-leading safety pledge (Anthropic)

• Meta explores stablecoin payments across its platforms (BB)

• HSBC shares surge to record on profit beat, raised targets (YF)

• Two top HSBC traders are departing ahead of tough bonus season (BB)

• Taiyo Holdings nears deal to go private via KKR buyout (BB)

• The tooth fairy is back in growth mode, with payouts up 17% (Axios)

• The market’s AI obsession is starting to bring out the bears (WSJ) 

• Cava fourth-quarter sales rise on higher prices, new restaurant openings (WSJ)

• Wall Street doesn’t know what to think about AI anymore (BB)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. equities moved higher, financials and technology led gains, rebounding after recent AI-related weakness

• Europe traded higher; Japan’s Nikkei gained over 2% overnight

• Treasury yields ticked up slightly, with the 10-year at 4.05% and 2-year at 3.47%

International Momentum

• MSCI Emerging Markets up 13% YTD (USD terms)

• Korea (+47%) and Taiwan (+22%) leading gains within EM tech-heavy regions

• MSCI EAFE up 8% YTD, supported by Japan (+12%)

• Japan’s manufacturing PMI near a four-year high, signaling industrial recovery

• A softer dollar and improving global manufacturing trends continue to aid international returns

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Cava ($CAVA) +26% after the fast casual chain posted strong earnings.

• (+) Coinbase ($COIN) +14% because the crypto exchange launched stock trading on its platform.

• (–) Oddity Tech ($ODD) -49% after the online retailer warned that an algorithm error could impact revenue.

Prediction Markets

• With the Fed expected to maintain rates in March, how many cuts will we see this year?

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Wayve, a U.K.-based autonomous driving company, raised $1.5 billion 

• MatX, an AI chip developer, raised over $500 million

• SambaNova, a chipmaker, raised $350 million

• Cubby, a property management platform for self-storage operators, raised $63 million

• Summize, a provider of in-house contract management software, raised $50 million

• Talos, a crypto trading platform, raised $45 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

The Last Economy

Description: A forward-thinking manifesto about how artificial intelligence and intelligent systems are redefining the foundation of global economics. Mostaque argues that AI is not just another tool but a transformative force that makes traditional scarcity-based economic models obsolete. He lays out the principles of “intelligent economics,” offers scenarios for how societies might adapt, and presents a blueprint for harnessing abundance without sacrificing human agency. This is part big-ideas manifesto, part economic blueprint for a world where intelligence is abundant and distributed.

Book Length: 150 pages
Release Date: August 22, 2025

Ideal For: Investors, policymakers, thinkers, and anyone curious about how AI will reshape markets, work, and human purpose in the coming decade.

“The economy of tomorrow is not built on scarcity. It is built on abundant intelligence made humane.”

DAILY VISUAL

A Golden Rotation

PRESENTED BY YIELDCLUB

The Easiest Way For Your Money to Make Money

Looking to earn more than 4% on your cash?

YieldClub is a simple platform that helps you earn 5–15% APY** on your money while keeping full control of your funds (self-custody).

Your returns compound every 16 seconds, and the platform is built on audited protocols that already manage $10B+ in deposits.

You can earn institutional-grade yield on idle cash (without lockups, hidden fees, or confusing structures) while keeping your money ready for the next investment opportunity.

Check out YieldClub today (and give them a follow).

DAILY ACUMEN

Assuming the Worst

Every time someone misses a deadline, sends a vague email, or pushes back in a meeting, your brain offers you a story. Usually it's not a generous one. This feels like wisdom, like protection from being naive. But what it's actually doing is slowly poisoning the relationships you depend on.

People feel when they're being suspected. They withdraw, get defensive, and start performing instead of contributing. Your assumption of bad intent becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy you never realise you started.

The fix isn't blind optimism. It's simply defaulting to the assumption that people are trying, even when they fall short. This doesn't make you a pushover. It makes you someone people actually want to perform for. Trust isn't the reward you give after it's been earned. It's the condition under which people are most likely to earn it.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• Build 3 statement models, DCFs and LBOs in 10 minutes*

• How to stop reacting and start living

• The psychology of holding onto beliefs

• How your personality impacts your career success

• 4 negotiation tactics to try in every day life

• How to build muscle when working out

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

📣 Partner With Us: Get in front of an audience of over 1 million finance professionals, business leaders, and policy influencers. Submit a partnership inquiry.

📈 Grow With Us: Work directly with the Overheard on Wall Street team to scale your finance brand. Schedule your free consult.

🔒 Short Squeez Premium – Insiders: Access exclusive content, including investment analysis, wellness features, career tools, and our full recruiting resource library. Upgrade to Premium. 

🧢 Wall Street Shop: Explore our collection of finance-themed apparel and merchandise. Visit the shop.

📬 Deals Newsletter – Buysiders: A curated roundup of major M&A, private equity, and VC activity. Plus access to private deal flow. Subscribe here.