Short Squeez
Posts
🍋 OF Meets Wall Street

🍋 OF Meets Wall Street

Plus: Blackstone wants to build 50,000 homes a year, KKR is bailing out its own credit fund, and OpenAI allows employees to sell up to $30M worth of stock.

Short Squeez
May 12, 2026

Together With

“For any stocks going parabolic, reduce positions almost entirely.” — Michael Burry

Good Morning! OpenAI acquired consulting and engineering firm Tomoro to help deploy AI software across businesses through its new PE-backed joint venture. Blackstone is launching a lending platform for homebuilders to help build 50K US homes per year. And KKR is injecting $300M into FS KKR Capital Corp., the struggling private credit fund it manages with Future Standard.

Wordle is becoming a prime-time TV show with Savannah Guthrie as host. Goldman Sachs says 40% of Americans earning over $300K are still living paycheck to paycheck. And investment bank Lincoln International is seeking $421M in its IPO.

Plus: How a job at OpenAI became the greatest lottery ticket of the AI boom, Fortress co-founder allegedly extorted by sexual partner, and what to do about burnout at work.

Is your firm ahead or behind with their AI implementation? Request access to Endex to get ahead.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

OF Meets Wall Street

OnlyFans has spent years trying to raise outside capital or sell itself. The problem was never the numbers. It was the optics. Investors could see one of the most profitable platforms on the internet, then remember they'd have to explain to their IC why they were buying the world's biggest adult-content marketplace.

Someone finally did it. San Francisco-based PE firm Architect Capital agreed to invest $535 million for a ~16% stake in OnlyFans, valuing it at about $3.15 billion. James Packer (Australian billionaire, former Crown Resorts chairman) and Sam Lessin (early Facebook exec, Slow Ventures co-founder) co-invested alongside Architect, giving the deal extra credibility.

The numbers are absurd. OnlyFans generated $7.2 billion of gross revenue in fiscal 2024, $1.4 billion net, and $684 million of pre-tax profit.

That means the company is valued at less than 5x pre-tax profit, which is the kind of multiple you would expect from a declining industrial business, not a wildly profitable internet platform with global brand recognition and massive creator economics.

The discount exists for a reason. Adult content, creator safety, payments, regulation. It's the kind of asset that makes PE spreadsheets light up and compliance departments develop chest pain. For years, mainstream investors stayed away because the stigma was too hard to underwrite, even if the cash flow was impossible to ignore.

That's what makes this deal interesting. Architect isn't pretending OnlyFans is a normal SaaS business. They're getting in because the valuation is cheap, the profits are huge, and most investors still don't want to be seen near it. That's where PE often finds opportunity: messy assets that throw off real cash and trade at a discount because buyers are uncomfortable.

The ownership backdrop adds another layer. OnlyFans owner Leonid Radvinsky died earlier this year at just 43, and his widow reportedly took control. After years of failed sale efforts, the company finally found a buyer willing to price it for what it is.

Takeaway: OnlyFans is one of the strangest assets in private markets. Massive revenue, huge profits, global brand, valuation that still screams "reputational discount." Architect is betting the moral baggage is already priced in and the cash flow is too good to ignore. Not a clean deal or a comfortable deal. But PE has never been allergic to awkward businesses with fat margins. Sometimes the best returns come from the assets everyone else is too embarrassed to buy.

PRESENTED BY ENDEX

Speculated Gemini 4 Announcement Heats Up Frontier Model Race

Google is rumored to announce Gemini 4 at its upcoming Google I/O 2026 conference next week.

Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI's foundation models are demonstrating unique capabilities across Excel and PowerPoint.

Firms are leveraging AI Excel tools such as Endex to streamline key workflows that used to take bankers hours.

Endex rigorously tests and deploys leading frontier models across thousands of financial tasks, so firms on Wall Street get the best model no matter how the landscape evolves.

Request Access.

HEADLINES

Markets Rundown

Market Update

U.S. equities edged higher to begin the week, with the S&P 500 closing at another fresh all-time high
The market is now coming off its sixth consecutive positive week following the sharp rebound from March lows
Economic data was light, with existing-home sales largely in line with expectations
Investors are now focused on this week’s key inflation and consumer-spending data, including CPI tomorrow and retail sales on Thursday
Geopolitical headlines had limited market impact after the U.S. rejected Iran’s latest counterproposal over the weekend
Treasury yields moved modestly higher, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.41%

Inflation Data Takes Center Stage

The April CPI report will be one of the most important macro releases of the month
Consensus expects elevated energy prices to continue pushing headline inflation higher
Core CPI is expected to remain more contained, which will be closely watched by markets and the Fed
Last week’s stronger-than-expected payroll report reinforced the view that the labor market remains stable
The combination of sticky inflation and steady employment conditions likely keeps the Fed in a wait-and-see posture near term
Markets continue to view any additional rate cuts as more likely toward late 2026 if energy pressures ease

Earnings Continue to Dominate the Narrative

Strong earnings growth remains the primary reason equities have been able to largely look through geopolitical uncertainty
More than 84% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings expectations this quarter
The magnitude of earnings beats has also been far above historical averages
First-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth is now tracking around 26%, while full-year growth expectations remain above 20%
Continued strength in technology, AI infrastructure, and broader corporate profitability has offset concerns tied to oil prices and geopolitical risk

Movers & Shakers

(+) Lumentum ($LITE) +17% after being added to the Nasdaq-100 Index effective May 18.
(+) Circle ($CRCL) +16% because the Senate’s bipartisan CLARITY Act compromise cleared a key hurdle.
(–) Wendy’s ($WEN) -7% after JPMorgan downgraded to Underweight and BMO cut its price target to $8, with sales down.

Prediction Markets

CPI numbers for April come out around 8:30am EDT.
Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

Architect Capital agreed to invest $535 million into OnlyFans for around a 16% stake
Red Hot Chili Peppers sold their recorded catalog to Warner Music Group for more than $300 million
Cowboy Space, an orbital infrastructure company, raised $275 million
Grand Games, a Turkish mobile gaming studio, raised $70 million
eleQtron, a German trapped ion quantum computing startup, raised around $62 million
Nyobolt, a U.K. developer of fast-charging batteries, raised $60 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Outsmart Everyone

Description:
A tactical playbook inspired by intelligence and espionage techniques, focused on improving awareness, influence, and strategic thinking in everyday life. The book explores how observation, emotional control, information gathering, and behavioral analysis can create an edge in business, negotiations, and personal relationships. It reframes “spy skills” as practical tools for making smarter decisions, reading situations more accurately, and staying ahead in competitive environments.

Book Length: 288 pages
Release Date: September 8, 2026

Ideal For:
Professionals, operators, and anyone interested in strategic thinking, influence, and gaining an edge through sharper awareness and decision-making.

The greatest advantage is not strength or intelligence it is seeing what others miss before they do.

DAILY VISUAL

[ ]

Source: Chartr

PRESENTED BY FISHER INVESTMENTS

Is Your Retirement Plan Built to Last?

Planning for retirement means preparing for the unexpected: increased cash flow needs, heightened health care costs or a longer life than you might think. One key risk many retirees face is underestimating how long their savings need to last. Another is inflation, which can quietly reduce your purchasing power over time.

The 15-Minute Retirement Plan can help you navigate these challenges. With this guide, you can learn ways to account for a longer time horizon and manage the effects of inflation. If you have $1,000,000 or more saved, download your free guide to start building a more resilient financial future.

DAILY ACUMEN

Conversational Curiosity

The fastest way to be remembered favorably by anyone you meet is to ask them one good follow-up question. Not a polite first question. The second one, that signals you actually listened to the first answer and want to go deeper. Most people are so used to being met with surface-level politeness that genuine curiosity registers as something close to charisma.

The Wall Street version of this is even more pronounced because the default mode in most rooms is performance. Everyone is positioning, signaling, jockeying. The person who quietly listens, then asks the question that goes one layer beneath the surface answer, ends up with information, relationships, and goodwill that the performers never accumulate.

It costs nothing, takes no preparation, and almost nobody does it. Which is exactly why it works.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

Why hybrid work feels harder than it should
What to do about burnout at work
How to overcome social anxiety in leadership
How a couple of minutes of meditation can help you when stressed
How to protect your brain against Alzheimer’s

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

📣 Partner With Us: Get in front of an audience of over 1 million finance professionals, business leaders, and policy influencers. Submit a partnership inquiry.

📊 Wall Street Comp & Culture Data: Get the most detailed comp, carry, and culture insights across 800+ Wall Street firms. Explore the data.

📈 Grow With Us: Work directly with the Overheard on Wall Street team to scale your finance brand. Schedule your free consult.

🧢 Wall Street Shop: Explore our collection of finance-themed apparel and merchandise. Visit the shop.

📬 Deals Newsletter – Buysiders: A curated roundup of major M&A, private equity, and VC activity. Plus access to private deal flow. Subscribe here.

What'd you think of today's edition?

Reply

or to participate.