Good Morning! The bond market chaos is threatening the ‘soft landing’ dream. But there’s a glimmer of hope, corporations are poised for a profit rebound this quarter. 75k Kaiser workers walked off the job in the biggest healthcare strike in American history. Intel’s getting ready for another IPO - this time for its programmable chip unit. And the Biden admin announced an additional 125k student loan borrowers would receive a portion of $9 billion in debt forgiveness.

Our Financial Modeling Course is now live! Those who pre-ordered should already have access. If you're interested in enrolling, sign up here.

_{SQUEEZ OF THE DAY}

Moody Bears

The credit ratings agency Moody’s has been chirping Wall Street all year.

They downgraded almost a dozen banks last year. And now they’re going after the private equity industry.

This week, Moody’s warned that the private equity industry could pose a systemic threat to the U.S. economy.

They’re saying the quiet part out loud. After 2008, private equity firms have been making a lot of the risky bets banks just aren’t allowed to make anymore.

And they don’t pose a systemic risk to the economy and they’re able to regulate themselves. And that logic checks out - private equity has always relied on siloing their portfolio companies. If one of them goes down the financial rabbit hole, it's like it's in a different universe from the others, even if they're in the same fund.

But Moody's predicts that there's gonna be a bunch more leveraged buyouts soon, with the better ones waltzing over to the syndicated loan market for cheaper deals. Meanwhile, the weaker ones are gonna stick with private credit, where lenders are basically in a cage match, throwing laxer terms like they're candy at a parade.

And some mega-managers are starting to get their capital from regular folks, thanks to getting all cozy with retail investors and insurance companies.

Takeaway: The reason private equity hasn’t been regulated as heavily as banks? Because the industry has been able to convince bureaucrats that they don’t pose a systemic risk to the economy. But with trillions of dollars in assets under management, they might be too big to not be a risk - and the lack of regulation might be changing.

_{CAPITAL PULSE}

Markets Rundown

Stocks closed higher after a rough losing streak.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Nuvalent ($NUVL) +36% after the company released positive data for its lung cancer treatment.

• (+) Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH) +4% after a steep decline in oil prices.

• (–) Cal-Maine Foods ($CALM) -7% after the egg producer provided weak earnings.

Private Dealmaking

• Anthropic, a generative AI startup, in talks to raise another $2 billion

• Brookfield bought the onshore wind and farm unit of Banks Group for $1 billion 

• Anduril Industries, a defense tech company, in talks to raise $400-500 million

• Electric Hydrogen, a clean hydrogen company, raised $380 million

• Clearco, a revenue-based financing provider, raised $60 million

• Farther, a wealth management startup, raised $31 million

Get access to private deal flow here.

_{SPONSORED BY DOFOLLOW.COM}

Elevate your SEO Game

Are you struggling to climb the Google rankings? 

Want to see your website on the first page?

Here’s why dofollow.com is the top choice for marketers:

🌟 Elite DR90+ Websites: Secure backlinks from industry leaders like HubSpot, BigCommerce, Canva, Envato, Business Insider, and many more.

📈 Transparent Pricing: Pay only for tangible results. Zero hidden charges.

🚀 Amplify Your Reach: Boost visibility, attract more visitors, and expand your brand's horizon.

Experience unparalleled SEO growth with dofollow.com.

_HEADLINES

Top Reads

• The U.S. dollar is soaring (Axios)

• Private sector job growth cools to slowest pace since 2021 (CNBC)

• The stock market selloff is all about the ‘pain trade’ in bonds (YF)

• Barclays will cull 3% of its dealmakers (Reuters)

• Google’s new Pixel phones have new camera AI tricks (CNBC)

• How private equity’s building a shadow lending market funded by insurance (NYT)

• Billionaires who rode online delivery boom lost $15 billion (BB)

• Mortgage applications fall to lowest since 1995 (Axios)

• Citi outlines layoff process (YF)

_{BOOK OF THE DAY}

Quitting

Simone Biles quit the Olympics. Prince Harry and Meghan Markle quit The Firm. Millions of people have quit their jobs, seeking happiness and defining success on their own terms. Is it a mistake? As Pulitzer prize-winning journalist Julia Keller found out, it’s not. And, in fact, it might even save your life.

Diving into the neuroscience of nope and the cultural messages that drive our reluctance to throw in the towel, Keller dismantles the myth of perseverance once and for all. Because grit isn't always great. Sticking it out doesn't always pay off. And quitting can be an unexpected act of self-love.

Quitting: A Life Strategy humanely reminds us that, in order to live meaningful, satisfying lives, sometimes we have to say “no”—full stop. With Keller’s guidance, readers will learn the art of the quasi quit, see how quitting makes space for key breakthroughs, navigate the relationship between quitting and our public lives, manage quitter's guilt, and more.

"Julia Keller has flipped the script on one of the most maligned human acts: quitting.”

_{ENLIGHTENMENT}

Short Squeez Picks

• Morgan Housel on the written word

• 5 key takeaways from Atomic Habits that can revolutionize your routine

• How ambitious timeframes boost your chances at success

• The most successful quant funds’ secret sauce

• 3 steps to an after-work routine

_{DAILY VISUAL}

Mortgage Rates Hit 7.5% and Applications Fall to Lowest Since 1995

Average US 30-Year Fixed Mortgage rate

_{SPONSORED BY PERCENT}

How the Wealthy Truly Diversify Their Assets

The two words that have Blackstone and Goldman Sachs absolutely captivated?

Private credit.

While stocks continue to dominate headlines and capture the limelight, private credit deals can offer yields up to 20% APY while also generating recurring income.

But you don’t need to be an “insider” to access these opportunities. With Percent, accredited investors can tap this exclusive marketplace today and realize…

• Average APY of 18.55% with Percent (as of August 2023)

• Passive income generation during the lifetime of the loan

• Shorter-term investments with the option to redeploy capital frequently

Short Squeez readers: Receive a $500 bonus with your first investment today!

_{DAILY ACUMEN}

Luck

In a world where 25% of movie-goers can't pick a film, a chuckle slips out thinking about life and the big "luck" concept. Imagine believing "luck isn’t real" and how this cheeky, false belief could be our secret shield against unexpected problems or surprise mishaps.

Even basketball legend Michael Jordan used make-believe rival insults to score real wins. Dr. Peter Attia, avoiding car crashes with data-driven, albeit over-cautious driving tactics, joins this unconventional club of denying luck’s power.

The key takeaway? Pretending we always have control, even when it feels silly, could help us be the authors, not just viewers, of our life's story. Maybe not believing in luck, and instead in our ability to shape our destiny, isn’t so bizarre after all.

At the end of the day, wouldn’t we rather be the writers of our life movie instead of leaving it to the randomness of the universe?

_{JOB BOARD}

Featured Jobs

• Empire State - Analyst - New York, NY

• Time Equities - Sr. Analyst - New York, NY

• Braze - Sr. Analyst - New York, NY

_{MEME-A-PALOOZA}

Memes of the Day