Good Morning! The US stock market saw its most dramatic intraday reversal since April, with major indexes sliding to their lowest levels in more than two months. Ray Dalio says we’re definitely in a bubble, though he warns that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s time to sell.

Bitcoin dropped to its lowest level since April, and analysts are cutting year-end targets to $90K. KKR is looking to raise $15 billion for its newest Asia fund, while Blue Owl scrapped a merger of two private-credit funds amid scrutiny over potential investor losses.

Plus: Wall Street is redrawing the lines of equity research as private companies like OpenAI expand their influence, prediction market Kalshi raised $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation, and can micro-breaks actually make you more productive?

Sophisticated investors crave curated deal flow and low correlation to public equities. Percent provides both. Explore their private credit deals today.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Megafund Golden Handcuffs are Gone

Midlevel private equity investors used to tolerate the grind at megafunds and larger shops because the carry was supposed to turn into life-changing money. But across the bigger shops on Wall Street, that belief has collapsed. The golden handcuffs only work when people believe in the gold, or in this case, carry, and across the industry, they simply do not anymore.

At the megafunds, people are walking away from seven and eight-figure potential carry windfalls because they no longer trust the timeline or expected value. Exits have slowed since rates jumped in 2022. Companies bought in the zero-rate era cannot be sold for the same multiples today. 

And, most importantly, the carry that was supposed to hit in a few years now looks like it might never hit at all. One VP who left a top platform said he stopped caring about the headline number because he had zero confidence he would ever see the cash. The lifestyle expectations have collapsed, too. People who once dreamed of private jets now just want to afford tuition.

The math at large funds is also stacked against midlevel people. Hurdle rates can wipe out payouts, and vesting takes six to eight years. Leaving for a competitor can unvest carry you thought you had earned. And since senior partners rarely leave, pathways to the top look blocked. Even if you are at a $10B+ fund, your slice of the 20% carry pool is microscopic.

Private equity professionals are finding that going to a smaller firm can flip the switch. At an even $1B fund, your slice of carry can be meaningfully larger. You can negotiate economics with recruiters before joining, get attribution, and decisions move faster. And some investors feel they can make more of an impact than being a cog in the wheel at a megafund.

Cambridge Associates data shows top small funds regularly outperform top large ones, which means the actual dollar value of carry can end up higher at a boutique than at a global giant.

Experts say this is the strongest hiring market away from megafunds since 2009. The people who jumped after that downturn now run many of the blue-chip shops, and a new generation is following the same playbook.

Takeaway: Private equity’s labor market is getting re-priced, and carry isn’t the golden handcuff it used to be. More and more are realizing that while Blackstone or KKR gave them the brand and the education, their real upside may be at a smaller shop, where carry is more tangible and their impact is actually felt. Let’s just call it the continuation fund for talent.

PRESENTED BY PERCENT

Why Private Credit Can Outperform Public Equity for Accredited Investors

Private credit offers three advantages public markets can’t match: real collateral backing principal, yields up to 20%, and access to parts of the economy stocks don’t reach.

The numbers explain why. 87% of US companies and 95% of European companies with $100 million+ in revenues are privately held. Public equity gives you access to a fraction of available opportunities.

Percent connects accredited investors to curated private credit deals with low correlation to public market volatility. The platform features opportunities with potential annualized returns up to 20%, terms as short as six months, and full transparency into underlying data.

Get up to $500 from Percent with your first investment.*

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Delayed September report shows U.S. added 119,000 jobs, more than expected; unemployment rate at 4.4% (CNBC)

• Kalshi raises $1B at $11B valuation in mega funding round (YF)

• Ray Dalio warns the latest market boom is a ‘big bubble’ (CNBC)

• Traders search for clues behind the biggest S&P reversal since April (BB)

• KKR plans to raise $15B for its latest Asia fund (MSN)

• Blue Owl’s merger plan sputters amid cracks in private-credit markets (BB)

• OpenAI era pushes old-school stock analysts into private markets’ muscles (BB)

• As the market rallied to record highs last quarter, ultra-rich family offices bought beaten-up stocks (CNBC)

• Crypto exchange Kraken confidentially files for IPO following $800 million raise (CNBC)

• HSBC overhauls trading business in bid to become debt powerhouse (BB)

• Unhelpful split verdict on September jobs report leaves Fed’s next move unclear (YF)

• Bitcoin falls to its lowest level since April (CNBC)

• Private credit becomes core as JPMorgan rethinks 60/40 model (BB)

• New study shows global luxury shoppers are spurning high-end brands (YF)

• Nvidia CEO hits back at AI-bubble and circular-investing fears, saying “we see something very different” (YF)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Markets reversed sharply lower on Thursday, with the Nasdaq down over 2% and the S&P 500 falling about 1.6%.

• NVIDIA initially lifted markets after strong earnings, but the rally faded as broader risk sentiment deteriorated.

• Bitcoin dropped over 4%, contributing to risk-off tone, while Oracle CDS widened, signaling rising credit-risk concerns.

• AI and mega-cap tech volatility continued, underscoring the need for diversified exposure.

• The 10-year Treasury yield held near recent levels, the dollar slipped, and oil traded higher on tightening supply dynamics.

Economic Data Highlights

• NVIDIA’s strong resultsincluding a bullish revenue forecast and CEO Jensen Huang’s rejection of an “AI bubble”, were not enough to offset broader market concerns.

• Despite revenue growing 62% year-over-year, investors reacted to the cooling pace from prior triple-digit growth.

• The September jobs report showed 119,000 jobs added, above expectations, but the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, signaling continued labor-market cooling.

• Wage growth held steady at 3.8%, still above inflation and supportive of consumer purchasing power.

• Markets now price a 44% probability of a December Fed rate cut, up from 30% before the report.

Labor Market Update

• The delayed September nonfarm payrolls report suggests a labor market that is loosening but not weakening sharply.

• Rising unemployment alongside steady wage gains reflects slowing demand and slowing labor supply.

Earnings Today

• No significant earnings scheduled.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Exact Sciences ($EXAS) +17% after Abbott made a deal for the test maker.

• (+) Walmart ($WMT) +6% because the retailer increased its sales and earnings forecast.

• (–) Bath & Body Works ($BBWI) -25% after missing quarterly earnings.

Prediction Markets

• Haven’t we seen this playbook before? This time you can profit on it.

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Abbott Labs is buying Exact Sciences, a cancer testing company, for $21 billion

• Palo Alto Networks will buy Chronosphere, a data observability startup, for $3.35 billion

• Luma AI, a video generation platform, raised $900 million

• Function Health, a longevity startup, raised $298 million

• Profluent, a protein design AI startup, raised $106 million

• Amperesand, a power infrastructure provider, raised $80 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Leadership Unblocked

Description: Executive coach Muriel Wilkins reveals seven hidden, unconscious beliefs—like “I must know I’m right”, “I need to be involved in everything”, or “I don’t belong here”—that quietly block leaders from growing. She guides you to identify which of these “blockers” you carry, understand their origins, and provides actionable tools to shift from being stuck to leading with influence, ease, and clarity.

Book Length: 240 pages
Release Date: 2025

Ideal For: Mid- to senior-leaders, high-achievers, anyone who feels they’re hitting a glass ceiling in their leadership, and wants to unlock more impact by shifting mindset rather than just skillset.

“The smartest thing a leader can do is stop being the bottleneck—and start being the breakthrough.”

DAILY VISUAL

A November to Forget

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The platform processes Excel models, synthesizes data room documents, integrates market sources like FactSet, and generates investment-grade materials with full transparency. Analysts and Associates reclaim their time. VPs and Principals get better prepared analysis. MDs and Partners see faster deal flow.

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DAILY ACUMEN

Cost of Avoidance

Avoidance is expensive, and the bill always shows up with interest. The email you dodge, the conversation you delay, the goal you postpone—all of them quietly accumulate emotional debt.

What feels like relief in the moment becomes pressure later, and pressure compounds faster than money ever will. The curious thing is that the task itself is rarely the problem; it’s the story you tell yourself about it.

When you finally do the thing, you almost always think, “That was it?” Each avoided action is a reminder that discomfort is not a stop sign. It’s a toll booth.

Pay early and the road stays clear. Pay late and you end up stuck behind your own traffic.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• Insight-packed analysis on Canadian markets, for serious investors

• New York’s subway is waging a war on fare evasion with hostile architecture 

• The power of repetition

• The best meditation apps to quit doomscrolling and find peace instead

• Can micro-breaks improve productivity?

• Mastering the art of personality intelligence

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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