Good Morning! Coinbase crashed yesterday with many users reporting zeroed out balances as Bitcoin flirted with record highs. Sam Bankman-Fried wants a lenient sentence citing his autism. Citi is betting big on high-profile executives, including JPMorgan’s former banking head. The $1.7 trillion private credit industry values its loans more generously than others do - and that’s starting to worry regulators, plus a former investment banker’s journey to building a coffee machine company.

Yesterday, Bitcoin soared past $60k for the first time since November 2021. Currently, traders are pricing a 65% chance of Bitcoin passing its all-time high ($68,789) by March 31st. Trade your insights on Polymarket today.

_{SQUEEZ OF THE DAY}

Shadow Insider Trading

What happens when a company’s CEO starts trading his competitors’ stock? That’s what biotech executive Matthew Panuwat finds himself at the center of.

Unlike the typical insider trading scenario, Panuwat didn't cash in on shares from his own company, Medivation. Nor did he possess insider knowledge about his rival Incyte, the drugmaker whose stock options he purchased, netting $120,000. 

Panuwat suspected that Incyte would perform well when Pfizer acquired his company Medivation in 2016. But according to the SEC that is insider trading!

The case, set for trial, introduces the concept of "shadow insider trading," where executives utilize their insider knowledge to trade stocks of similar companies rather than their own, a concept not previously addressed in court.

Panuwat disputes these allegations, mentioning that he was distracted by personal events and that trading in biotech stocks was common for him, implying that his actions were not based on insider information.

This case is unique because it explores whether or not a CEO’s industry insights could be considered insider trading. The SEC says Panuwat made trades just minutes after allegedly learning about the Pfizer deal.

The SEC is seeking substantial penalties against Panuwat, including fines and a prohibition from serving as an officer or director of a public company.

Takeaway: It’s likely that executives across other industries leverage non-public information about their firms and competitors to make profitable stock trades. The outcome of this case could redefine the legal scope of insider knowledge and its application in the stock market. And if the SEC wins this case, it could open a huge can of worms for other company executives.

_{PRESENTED BY POLYMARKET}

Will Bitcoin Hit All Time High by March 31st?

Crypto bull market seems to be around the corner, if not already in full swing. Bitcoin is up more than 40% this year.

Analysts are split on when it will hit new highs: VanEck suggests a post-election surge in Q4 2024, while BitQuant sees a pre-halving peak, with a possible value surge to $250,000.

Bitcoin's recent leap over $60k, a first since November 2021, has sparked speculation.

Polymarket traders currently see a 65% chance of Bitcoin surpassing $68,789 within the next month. Those same traders buying “Yes” shares can see a return of ~50% if it surpasses the all-time high.

What's your take? Share your analysis, make predictions, and trade on Polymarket now.

_HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Flawed valuations threaten $1.7 trillion private credit boom (YF)

• The hottest housing markets for the super rich in 2024 (CNBC)

• Citi is betting big on high-profile executives to turn things around (YF)

• Disney to merge Star India in deal with Ambani’s Reliance (Axios)

• Sam Bankman-Fried urges lenient sentence, citing FTX fund recovery (Reuters)

• Why law firms could be private equity’s next conquest (Forbes)

• TikTok begins removing Universal Music songs (NBC)

• Bitcoin tops $60k, highest price in 2 years (Axios)

• Buyout industry support wanes for both Biden and Trump (WSJ)

• Debt-addicted companies look to equity as interest costs skyrocket (YF) 

_{CAPITAL PULSE}

Markets Rundown

Stocks closed lower ahead of key inflation data.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Beyond Meat ($BYND) +30% after the alternative meat company topped earnings estimates.

• (+) Revolve ($RVLV) +22% after the fashion retailer posted higher earnings-per-share than expected.

• (–) Bumble ($BMBL) -15% after the dating app stock posted disappointing earnings.

Private Dealmaking

• Ageas offered to buy Direct Line Insurance for around $3.4 billion 

• Cox Enterprises acquired OpenGov for $1.8 billion

• Glean, an AI enterprise search startup, raised over $200 million

• Oishii, a vertical strawberry grower, raised $134 million

• Mainstay Medical, a medical devices maker, raised $125 million

• Unseenlabs, a maritime surveillance startup, raised $92 million 

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

_{BOOK OF THE DAY}

The Minimum Method

The truth is most people don’t actually need grueling, extreme workouts or aggressively limited diets to lose weight and feel proud to flaunt their bodies in bathing suits. What they need is a plan that is focused on efficiency—the best results for the least amount of time and effort—and one that is actually designed to be maintained for more than 30 days.

In The Minimum Method, by nutrition expert and celebrity fitness trainer Joey Thurman, you’ll learn a wealth of practical advice, simple nutrition truths, minimal-effort recipes, and how to exercise smarter, not harder. Instead of unrealistic workouts and time-consuming meal plans, Thurman’s science-backed method is based on getting the maximum benefit out of things like quick and simple “exercise snacks” and sleep hygiene hacks.

Thurman doesn’t shy away from the shortcomings of the mainstream health/fitness/diet industry—in fact, he acknowledges and apologizes for his own past experience in perpetuating the harmful myth that everyone should be pushing their bodies to the limit in order to improve. Now, he’s on a mission to help others prioritize genuine health instead of some imaginary and unattainable standard of perfection.

Ultimately, The Minimum Method teaches how to adopt a healthier mindset and lifestyle: feeling your best when you don’t get enough sleep, working fitness into your busiest days, getting back on track when you slip up, and celebrating your progress.

“When it comes to looking and feeling your best, less really can be more.”

_{DAILY VISUAL}

Japanese Stock Rally Is Mainly Large Cap

_{DAILY ACUMEN}

Perpetually Tired

When you find yourself perpetually tired and seemingly stuck in a rut, it may feel like there's no way out of the cycle of exhaustion. This situation is far from uncommon; many people experience periods of languishing, characterized by a sense of stagnation and emptiness, as if life is being viewed through a foggy windshield.

The key to breaking free from this state isn't necessarily found in rest or positive thinking alone but rather in taking action—specifically, through a process known as behavioral activation. This approach suggests that by simply starting to engage in activities that align with your values and contribute to your well-being, you can begin to climb out of the pit of apathy and fatigue.

Behavioral activation is grounded in the understanding that action can lead to motivation, rather than waiting for motivation to spur action. It's about doing the things that matter most, even when you don't feel like it, and allowing those actions to gradually improve your mood and energy levels.

This might involve reconnecting with friends, pursuing creative projects, or committing to a daily exercise routine—anything that gets you moving and breaks the inertia of languishing. Embracing this approach requires a balance of discipline and self-compassion, acknowledging that while starting may be difficult, each step forward is a step out of the fog.

By focusing on what you can do in the present, without being overly critical of yourself for feeling stuck, you can slowly build momentum. Over time, this momentum not only makes it easier to keep going but also helps to rekindle the joy and motivation that seemed lost.

_{ENLIGHTENMENT}

Short Squeez Picks

• Don’t sacrifice your happiness for success

• 7 simple ways to be kinder to yourself 

• Ex-investment banker’s path to building a coffee company

• 3 great business podcasts for leaders 

• Barbara Corcoran on the simple words that made her a nicer person

• Einstein’s 7 rules for a better life

_{MEME-A-PALOOZA}

Memes of the Day