Good Morning and Happy Nvidia Earnings Day! Anthropic was valued at $350 billion after fresh investments from Microsoft and Nvidia. Goldman Sachs says the stock market may have already priced in the AI boom, with $19 trillion in market value running ahead of real economic impact.

Meta won the FTC antitrust trial that focused on WhatsApp and Instagram. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $90,000, its lowest since April. And Larry Summers says he is ‘deeply ashamed’ after new Jeffrey Epstein emails and will pause public engagements.

Plus: A former investment banker was charged with running a global insider-trading ring out of his Paris restaurant, and why going easy on yourself actually makes you more likely to hit your goals.

Explore insights from 746 finance leaders on how they're managing cash flow in BILL’s State of B2B Payments report.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Government Meme Stocks

After the administration broke precedent by taking ownership stakes in public companies, traders are now gaming out which stocks Washington might target next. Industrial policy has basically turned into a stock-picking strategy, and the market is following the government’s checkbook as well as fundamentals.

So far, the gains have been wild. MP Materials jumped 95% after the Pentagon bought a 15% stake. Lithium Americas surged more than 200% after Washington took a position.

The White House wants secure minerals, rebuilt supply chains, and less reliance on China. Any company that fits that mission profile can suddenly become a moonshot.

Some traders are combing through federal procurement filings like they are earnings transcripts. Others are feeding supply chain data into AI models to identify companies most exposed to China.

Graphite, drones, seabed mining, and rare earths are the new meme sectors. One amateur investor in Vancouver is pitching Military Metals, which makes antimony for weapons and sensors, as the next federal favorite.

The trade has already gone mainstream. Roundhill Financial filed for an ETF that tracks companies most likely to receive federal investment. Old West Investment Management and Tuttle Capital are leaning into what they call Trump’s “national portfolio.”

But this strategy cuts both ways. When the government becomes the market’s dominant activist investor, politics can overshadow profit. Critical Metals soared 109% on rumors of a federal deal, then crashed when the White House denied it.

Takeaway: The most influential activist investor in America is no longer Elliott or Ackman, it is the United States government. Industrial policy is the new market catalyst, and guessing Trump’s next buy is becoming its own asset class. And good luck back-testing this strategy, the sample size is one president!

PRESENTED BY BILL

State of B2B Payments Report 2025

If you're leading finance at a growing business, you're juggling a lot: fraud prevention, cash flow, operational efficiency, and trying to scale.

But, you're not alone. BILL recently surveyed more than 700 finance leaders and here's what stood out:

• 1 in 4 lost money to payments fraud last year

• 1 in 3 are bracing for cash flow challenges in the year ahead

• And 88% say digital payments platforms are essential to their ability to grow

One thing was clear: finance leaders are moving away from paper-heavy processes toward smarter, more secure systems. Digital payments are no longer a nice-to-have, but a critical tool for businesses. 

BILL pulled all the findings into a brand new State of B2B Payments report. If you're rethinking your payments stack or just want to see where your peers are headed, it's worth a look.

Please Support Our Partners!

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Global stocks slide as valuation fears rise ahead of Nvidia earnings (CNBC)

• Google announces Gemini 3 as battle with OpenAI intensifies (CNBC)

• Baby Shark creator Pinkfong pops in trading debut (WSJ)

• Anthropic valued at $350 billion following new deals with Microsoft and Nvidia (CNBC)

• Larry Summers says he is ‘deeply ashamed’ after new Epstein emails (CNN)

• Meta wins FTC antitrust trial over WhatsApp and Instagram (CNBC)

• AI boom may already be priced in, Goldman warns of $19 trillion overshoot (Fortune)

• Bitcoin briefly falls below $90,000, hits lowest level since April (CNBC)

• Ex-investment banker charged with running multimillion-dollar insider-trading ring (BB)

• Trump pushes affordability message, says inflation is “almost at the sweet spot” (YF)

• Cloudflare says outage is resolved that hit X, ChatGPT (CNBC)

• Gold-rich investors rent bullion bars to earn yield as metal demand surges (CNBC)

• Bitcoin’s 2025 crash leaves it lagging bonds, gold, and traditional assets (YF)

• Financial stocks flash warning signs as credit risks threaten broader markets (YF)

• Venture funds “frozen in time”: liquidity crisis reshapes Silicon Valley as 20-year-old VC portfolios pile up (TC)

• JPMorgan says Charlie Javice added another $13 million to the bank’s legal bills after post-trial actions (BB)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Stocks declined on Tuesday ahead of NVIDIA’s highly anticipated earnings, with consumer discretionary and technology sectors leading losses.

• Bond yields fell, with the 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.12%, reflecting a modest flight to safety.

• In international markets, Asia closed lower, led by Japan’s Nikkei, while Europe finished mixed.

• The U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies, while WTI oil rose on tightening Russian supply.

• Bitcoin extended its drop, now down over 25% from its October peak near $125,000, as leveraged positions continue to unwind.

Economic Data Highlights

• The AI sector remains in focus, with investors cautious ahead of NVIDIA’s report on Wednesday.

• Analysts expect EPS of $1.26 and revenue near $55B, up sharply year-over-year.

• 93% of S&P 500 companies have now reported third-quarter results, with 82% beating estimates and an average 7.1% upside surprise.

• Earnings growth forecasts have been revised up to 13.1%, led by technology, financials, and utilities, with nine of 11 sectors showing year-over-year gains.

• We see broad-based earnings strength as supportive for diversified portfolios despite recent volatility in mega-cap tech.

Labor Market Update

• Initial jobless claims rose slightly to 232,000 for the week ended October 18, below the four-week average of 237,000.

• Continuing claims edged up to 1.96 million, reflecting gradual cooling in the labor market.

• The broader trend shows slower but steady job growth, with unemployment at 4.3% and 7.2 million job openings.

• Wage growth remains above inflation, which should continue supporting consumer spending and overall economic resilience.

Earnings Today

• TGT (Target) – Focus on holiday-season guidance and inventory management.

• LOW (Lowe’s) – Watch for home-improvement spending trends and margins.

• NVDA (NVIDIA) – Key test for AI demand and semiconductor sector sentiment.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Strategy ($MSTR) +6% after the crypto proxy bought more Bitcoin.

• (+) Medtronic ($MDT) +5% after beating earnings.

• (–) Klarna ($KLAR) -9% after the company swung to an operating loss, a turn from the profit it delivered this time last year.

Prediction Markets

• Earnings Call Spotlight: Nvidia (Today after market close)

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Akzo Nobel agreed to buy Axalta Coating Systems for $9.2 billion

• Ramp, an expense-management startup, raised $300 million 

• KoBold Metals, an EV battery mineral exploration company, secured $163 million

• Harbinger, a maker of commercial EVs, raised $160 million

• Flatpay, a provider of card payment solutions for SMBs, raised $158 million

• Sakana AI, a Japanese AI model developer, raised $135 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Bag Man

Description:
An inside look at how a small leather-goods maker turned into a global lifestyle brand. When Lew Frankfort joined Coach in 1979, it was doing around $6 million in business. By the time he retired, he had helped grow it into a multi-billion-dollar enterprise. This memoir reveals the strategy, culture, and leadership mindset behind that transformation—how “accessible luxury” was invented, how “magic + logic” shaped decisions, and what it takes to scale while staying true to a brand’s identity.

Book Length: 272 pages

Ideal For: Business leaders, brand builders, retail executives, entrepreneurs wanting to understand how to build and sustain premium growth.

“You can’t rely entirely on logic when you’re building something that has emotional attributes. You need to get into the hearts and minds of the consumers you’re targeting.”

DAILY VISUAL

India: Record High Buying of Gold ETFs

PRESENTED BY YIELDCLUB

The Easiest Way For Your Money To Make Money

Looking to earn more than 4% on your cash?

YieldClub is a simple platform that helps you earn 6–14% APY on your money while keeping full control of your funds (self-custody).

Your returns compound every 16 seconds, and the platform is built on audited protocols that already manage $10B+ in deposits.

You can earn institutional-grade yield on idle cash (without lockups, hidden fees, or confusing structures) while keeping your money ready for the next investment opportunity.

Check out YieldClub today.

Please Support Our Partners!

DAILY ACUMEN

Art of Solitude

In a world obsessed with connection, solitude has become a lost art. We treat being alone as something to fix, when it’s often something to master. True solitude isn’t the absence of people, it’s the presence of yourself.

The world tells you to network, to post, to share, to always be seen. But solitude is where your best ideas are born. It’s where clarity replaces noise, where values get refined, and where the next version of you begins to take shape. Hopper painted it, Warhol recorded it, philosophers lived by it, the ability to sit quietly and turn loneliness into creation.

Most people avoid solitude because it reflects truth back too clearly. You see what you’ve been postponing, the emotions you’ve buried, the potential you haven’t yet claimed. But solitude isn’t punishment. It’s a mirror that shows you who you are when nobody’s watching and that’s where real confidence begins.

If connection is oxygen, solitude is sleep. You need both to stay alive.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• Why going easy on yourself makes you more likely to achieve goals

• 12 small habits that make life simpler

• 10 choices you won’t regret in 10 years

• Small habits of people who have an edge in life

• How emotional intelligence turns managers into great coaches 

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

📣 Partner With Us: Get in front of an audience of over 1 million finance professionals, business leaders, and policy influencers. Submit a partnership inquiry.

📈 Grow With Us: Work directly with the Overheard on Wall Street team to scale your finance brand. Schedule your free consult.

🔒 Short Squeez Premium – Insiders: Access exclusive content, including investment analysis, wellness features, career tools, and our full recruiting resource library. Upgrade to Premium. 

🧢 Wall Street Shop: Explore our collection of finance-themed apparel and merchandise. Visit the shop.

📬 Deals Newsletter – Buysiders: A curated roundup of major M&A, private equity, and VC activity. Plus access to private deal flow. Subscribe here.