Good Morning! Anthropic raised $30 billion at a $380 billion valuation, one of the largest private tech rounds ever. Morgan Stanley paid CEO Ted Pick $45 million for 2025, a 32% raise and the biggest jump among major bank CEOs. And venture capital’s dry powder problem could deepen as the software selloff drags on.

The mega-rich are fortifying mansions like private compounds. Instagram’s CEO says social media is not “clinically addictive.” And tech investor Orlando Bravo says most software companies simply do not generate enough profit.

Plus: The Fortune 500 CEO who believes in pain and suffering, Mamdani’s team scouts sites for city-backed grocery stores across all five boroughs, and why intense focus beats steady habits.

An overlooked policy framework could quietly reshape how capital flows through U.S. markets. See what historical patterns Jim Rickards has identified and how you can benefit.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

From Free to Fee

The job market is so weak that the role of recruiters has completely flipped. For decades, companies paid headhunters to find talent. Now, in a soft white-collar job market, candidates are paying recruiters to find them work.

The reason? Supply has overtaken demand and, for the first time since the pandemic hiring boom, there are more unemployed white-collar workers than open roles.

Job searches are stretching toward six months, and layoffs across tech, finance, and corporate America have pushed experienced professionals back into the market just as hiring has slowed. When labor supply exceeds demand, pricing power shifts, and recruiters who once sold candidates to companies are now selling access to roles.

Some firms charge monthly retainers of $1,000 or more, and others take 10% to 20% of the first-year salary if a placement lands. A few use AI to mass-message hiring managers or submit applications on a candidate’s behalf.

One platform charges about 20% of a candidate’s first month’s salary upon placement. It’s contingency recruiting, but the job seeker is the client. The pitch is simple, and their value-add is breaking through applicant-tracking systems and bypassing the resume black hole.

That pitch works because the friction is real. AI has made applying easier but less effective. With applicant-tracking systems filtering resumes before humans see them, mass applications have increased noise, and candidates feel invisible. 

Paying someone to create a signal in a crowded system feels rational, even if it comes at a vulnerable moment. Traditional recruiters see ethical gray areas, especially when firms automate outreach or request access to personal accounts. But desperation changes norms.

Takeaway: Reverse recruiting isn’t a quirky startup trend. It’s a labor-market tell. When talent starts paying to be placed, bargaining power has clearly shifted to employers. In boom cycles, companies compete for access to workers. In slow cycles, workers compete, and now, they’re writing checks to do it.

PRESENTED BY PARADIGM PRESS

A Little-Known Law That Could Change the Economic Playbook

Most market narratives focus on rates, earnings, or AI. Far fewer examine the legal infrastructure that governs how the U.S. mobilizes resources during periods of strategic urgency.

There exists a long-standing federal statute that gives the executive branch broad authority to coordinate industrial production, supply chains, and resource allocation when national priorities are at stake. Historically, this framework has only been used during moments of extreme economic or geopolitical pressure; and when activated, it has materially altered demand patterns across energy, materials, and manufacturing.

Understanding how government-directed industrial policy works (and where it concentrates capital) helps explain why certain sectors experience outsized, multi-year tailwinds while others stagnate. This isn’t about predictions. It’s about understanding structure, incentives, and historical precedent.

Watch the full video here.*

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Anthropic closes $30B funding round at $380B valuation as cash flows into AI startups (CNBC)

• Morgan Stanley bumps CEO's pay to $45M after record year (YF)

• Venture capital has a ‘dry powder’ problem. The software selloff could worsen it (WSJ)

• The mega-rich are turning their mansions into impenetrable fortresses (WSJ)

• Social media not 'clinically addictive,' per Instagram CEO (CNN)

• Tech investor Orlando Bravo says most software companies don't have enough profit (CNBC)

• The Fortune 500 CEO who puts a premium on pain and suffering (WSJ)

• Mamdani’s grocery plan takes shape in economic policy shift (BB)

• Realtors report a ‘new housing crisis’ as January home sales tank more than 8% (CNBC)

• AI turns from lifting all boats to sinking ships (YF)

• Office real estate stocks tumble as AI disruption casualties in the stock market grow by the day (CNBC)

• Bitcoin hovers near $65,000 as investor frustration grows (YF)

• Big tech companies prepare to skirt Trump’s $100,000 H-1B fee (WSJ)

• Wall Street’s top brass try to soothe investor jitters about software (WSJ)

• Larry Fink’s private asset bet powers global family office boom (BB)

• Blackstone could face challenge if it tries to exit investment in Chicago's Willis Tower (Costar)

• How private equity’s big bet on software was derailed by AI (FT)

• McMansions become financial 'liability' as buyers ditch oversized homes (Fox)

• Mercedes hit by $1.2 billion in tariff costs as full-year earnings more than halve (CNBC)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. equities reversed early gains and sold off sharply, with major large- and small-cap indexes down ~1%–2%

• Global markets had been stronger overnight, with Asia and Europe continuing their solid YTD performance

• Treasuries rallied in a risk-off move, pushing the 10-year yield down 8 bps to ~4.10%, the lowest since early December

• U.S. dollar was broadly steady

• Commodities struggled, with oil and gold down ~3%

Economic Data Highlights

• Initial jobless claims remained elevated around 230K, following last week’s spike

• 4-week moving average rose to ~220K, a three-month high

• Despite the uptick, claims remain low by historical standards, signaling limited labor-market stress

• Yesterday’s payrolls report showed stronger-than-expected private hiring, reinforcing a resilient labor backdrop

• CPI tomorrow is expected at +0.3% MoM for both headline and core; some strength may reflect seasonal price resets

Sector Trends

• Technology dispersion widened as markets continued to differentiate AI winners and losers

• Micron Technology benefited from strong memory demand, while Cisco Systems fell on rising input-cost concerns

• Software stocks remain under pressure amid AI disruption fears

• Real estate weakened as investors reassessed long-term office demand in an AI-driven economy

• Ongoing volatility is reinforcing rotation into cheaper, pro-cyclical sectors with improving earnings trends

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Crocs ($CROX) +19% after the shoemaker beat earnings; making strong turnaround plan.

• (–) Lululemon ($LULU) -4% because of another ‘see-through’ pants controversy.

• (–) Applovin ($APP) -20% after investors weighed AI’s impact on the ad tech company.

Prediction Markets

• New Valentines Day date idea: Kalshi and chill

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Nuveen to acquire Schroders for about $13.5 billion 

• Blackstone and EQT will acquire Urbaser, a Spanish waste management firm, from Platinum Equity for $6.6 billion

• Apptronik, a developer of humanoid robots, raised $520 million

• Talkiatry, a psychiatric care platform, raised $210 million

• Solace Health, a platform that connects patients with health advocates, raised $130 million

• Loyal, a developer of lifespan extension drugs for dogs, raised $100 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Confessions of a Unicorn Founder

Description: A raw, unfiltered memoir from a startup founder who lived the highs and lows of building, scaling, and nearly burning out in pursuit of a billion dollar outcome. Kopitopoulos exposes the gritty realities hidden behind pitch decks and term sheets, including obsession, self-deception, ego, investor pressure, and the emotional toll of chasing unicorn status. Equal parts cautionary tale and hard-earned wisdom, the book shines a light on what founders don’t teach you in YC or Stanford.

Book Length: 288 pages
Release Date: January 13, 2026

Ideal For: Founders, operators, investors, startup builders, and anyone who wants unvarnished insight into the real psychology and tradeoffs of pursuing outsized startup outcomes.

“The path to a billion begins with a belief that eats at you more than it feeds you.”

DAILY VISUAL

Sitting = More Money

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DAILY ACUMEN

Change Your Environment

Psychologist Kurt Lewin said behavior is a function of person and environment.

Most people try to change the person. Smart people change the environment.

Want to eat healthier? Don't rely on willpower. Remove junk food from your house.

Want to read more? Put books everywhere and hide your phone.

Want to exercise? Sleep in your workout clothes.

Your environment shapes your behavior more than your intentions.

Change the environment and behavior changes automatically. No willpower required.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• How to articulate your contributions as a senior leader

• How to keep your voice from shaking when public speaking

• Why intense focus beats steady habits

• The differences between to-do lists and systems

• 3 communication skills for job interviews

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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