Good Morning! Job market for recent grads is worsening with entry-level jobs down 37% since 2022 and paid internships falling from ~11K to ~7K since 2019. Mamdani wants to slash the estate tax exemption from $7M to $750K and hike the top rate to 50%.

A German tourist is suing Los Tacos No. 1 for $100K over spicy salsa injuries. Blackstone is switching up its REIT portfolio, selling legacy assets like Park Ave Tower for $730M and moving into data centers, apartments, and logistics. And Chelsea Piers has become Gen Z's gym of choice for building seven-figure businesses between sets.

Plus: Why bank stocks are getting hit over private credit, and why your investing strategy is great… as long as you never actually trade anything.

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SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

DC's New Investment Bank

The Trump administration just received an advisory fee for brokering the sale of TikTok’s U.S. operations from Chinese parent ByteDance to a consortium including Oracle, Silver Lake, and Abu Dhabi investor MGX.

The administration will charge $10 billion for doing so, a fee that would make even Goldman Sachs jealous. 

For context, Bank of America is in line to make $130 million advising on the Norfolk Southern-Union Pacific deal, one of the largest single-bank fees ever recorded on a transaction. White House just charged 77x that on one deal.

To be fair, Trump did save TikTok from a congressional kill shot. A federal law required ByteDance to either sell its U.S. operations or shut down entirely. Trump used executive actions to extend the deadline, navigated negotiations with Beijing, corralled the investors, and got the deal done. “The United States is getting a tremendous fee-plus, call it a fee-plus, just for making the deal,” Trump said in September.

The new entity, TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC, is valued at roughly $14 billion, though tech analysts say that dramatically undervalues the app, and ByteDance retains nearly 20% plus a profit-sharing agreement and algorithm license. So China didn’t exactly leave empty-handed either.

The TikTok fee isn’t a one-off. The administration has taken a nearly 10% stake in Intel, negotiated a cut of Nvidia’s chip sales to China in exchange for export licenses, and taken equity stakes in other companies. It has a “golden share” in U.S. Steel following Nippon Steel’s takeover.

The White House is starting to look less like a regulatory body and more like a sovereign wealth fund which, to be clear, was pretty much the stated goal. Trump has long admired the Gulf state model of deploying government capital as geopolitical leverage.

Takeaway: The Trump cabinet was already stacked with ex-Wall Street, Bessent at Treasury, Lutnick at Commerce, and Feinberg at the Pentagon. Now the White House itself is collecting advisory fees, taking equity stakes, and structuring golden shares. Whether you think that’s savvy statecraft or a troubling blurring of government and capital markets probably depends on your politics. What’s harder to argue with is the number: $10 billion for one deal. 

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

• New York entry-level jobs are vanishing for young graduates (BB)

• Mamdani wants New York estate tax threshold cut 90% to $750,000 (BB)

• Judge says nein to German tourist lawsuit over spicy tacos (NYP)

• Blackstone is a major seller in January commercial real estate deals (CNBC)

• Gen Z digital moguls building seven-figure companies at the gym (NYP)

• Why bank stocks are getting beaten up over private credit (WSJ)

• Meta eyes sweeping layoffs as AI investments pile up (YF)

• Private equity is about to eat its own software portfolio (CNBC)

• San Francisco's housing market rebounds amid AI boom (WSJ)

• US economy expanded at sluggish 0.7% in Q4, downgrading first estimate (YF)

• Iran war: stock market in denial on oil prices and volatility (Axios)

• Viral chain PopUp Bagels plans ambitious expansion (QSR)

• Palantir's Karp is buyer of $46 million Miami mansion (BB)

• Retail investors show first sign of buyer fatigue, JPMorgan says (BB)

• Judge throws out subpoenas in Federal Reserve criminal probe (YF)

• Warren Buffett: cash is necessary like oxygen but it's not a good asset (CNBC)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Performance

• U.S. equities ended the week lower as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to weigh on sentiment

• The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, reversing an earlier ~1% gain during the session

• Markets have experienced several consecutive declines as investors monitor the Iran conflict and energy supply disruptions

• WTI crude oil climbed to roughly $99 per barrel, reflecting continued concerns about disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz

Economic Signals

• The second estimate of Q4 U.S. GDP was revised lower to 0.7% annualized, down from the initial 1.4% estimate

• The downward revision reflected weaker consumer spending, investment, exports, and government spending

• However, part of the slowdown was linked to the government shutdown, which temporarily dragged on growth

• Adjusting for volatile components such as trade, inventories, and government spending, underlying economic growth appears closer to ~1.9%

• January consumer spending rose only 0.1% month-over-month, suggesting a softer start to the year, though severe winter weather may have contributed

• Core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge, increased 0.4% in January, leaving the year-over-year rate at 3.1%

• The stronger PCE reading highlights persistent inflation pressures, even before considering higher energy costs

Policy Outlook

• The Federal Reserve meets next week against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty

• Oil prices are up roughly 40% year-to-date, creating additional risks for near-term inflation

• Markets have recently scaled back expectations for rate cuts

• Current pricing implies only one Fed rate cut in 2026, down from expectations for two or more cuts earlier this year

• Policymakers are unlikely to provide strong forward guidance given the evolving geopolitical situation

• Investors will be watching closely for signals on how the Fed balances inflation risks from energy prices with potential growth slowdowns

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Klarna ($KLAR) +9% after board chair Michael Moritz purchased approximately $50 million worth of Klarna stock.

• (–) Adobe ($ADBE) -8% because the software giant reported Q1 earnings and CEO Shantanu Narayen announced his departure, spooking investors despite in-line results.

• (–) Ulta ($ULTA) -14% after the beauty retailer missed Q4 earnings estimates and issued full-year guidance at the low end of Wall Street’s expectations.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Prediction Markets

• March Madness Week: A 16-seed over a 1-seed

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Axiom Math, a mathematical superintelligence startup, raised $200 million

• Sunday, a developer of humanoid robots for household tasks, raised $165 million

• Wonderful, an AI agent startup, raised $150 million

• Oro Labs, a procurement software platform, raised $100 million

• Kast, a stablecoin payments platform, raised $80 million

• Qdrant, an open-source vector search engine company, raised $50 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

The Courage To Be Disliked

Description: A thought provoking guide to personal freedom rooted in the psychology of Alfred Adler. Presented as a dialogue between a philosopher and a young student, the book challenges conventional ideas about trauma, approval, and social pressure. It argues that happiness comes from choosing one’s own path rather than living to satisfy others, and that individuals can reshape their lives by changing how they interpret their experiences.

Book Length: 288 pages
Release Date: May 7, 2024

Ideal For: Readers interested in psychology, philosophy, personal growth, and anyone seeking greater independence and clarity in how they live their life.

True freedom begins when people stop living for the expectations of others and take responsibility for the meaning they give their own lives.

DAILY VISUAL

Three Best Picture Nominees cost $10M or Less to Make

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DAILY ACUMEN

Losing

How you handle losing tells everyone in the room everything they need to know about why you were winning in the first place. Grace in defeat is rare enough that people remember it for years.

There is nothing wrong with wanting to win. But the person who can lose cleanly, without excuse, without bitterness, without rewriting the result, has access to something the sore loser never will: an accurate picture of what actually happened and what it would take to do better.

Ego protects you from that information. Humility is what lets it in.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• What’s the healthy amount of sleep?

• Your investing strategy is great as long as you don’t trade anything

• NYC gets its first Tokyo pizza pop-up

• The American couple relocating to Italy who only spend $1,246/month

• Want to protect your money? Diversify your investments

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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