Good Morning! Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the company’s recent $30B investment in OpenAI could be its last before the company eventually goes public. Apple unveiled the $599 MacBook Neo, its cheapest laptop yet, targeting Chromebooks and budget PCs. Whoop plans to expand its workforce by 75% ahead of a likely IPO.

Record numbers of workers are tapping hardship withdrawals from their 401(k)s. Morgan Stanley is laying off 2,500 employees across divisions, including investment banking, while investors are ramping up short bets against Blue Owl.

Plus: Big Tech’s AI data center power deals raise new accounting questions, and a Yale professor’s investment formula argues you should own more stocks.

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SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Coffee Roll-Ups?

The Chinese private equity firm that rebuilt Luckin Coffee after one of the biggest accounting frauds in recent memory is now buying one of America's favorite specialty café brands. And while it's early, coffee roll-ups may be on the horizon.

Centurium Capital is reportedly acquiring Blue Bottle Coffee's global café operations from Nestlé for under $400 million, a steep discount from the $700 million Nestlé had originally sought.

Nestlé, which paid $425 million for a 68% stake in 2017 before eventually taking full ownership, is keeping the consumer goods business (coffee beans, instant coffee, and ready-to-drink beverages) the asset-light, high-margin, globally scalable part.

Founded in Oakland in 2002, Blue Bottle is known for its premium cafés, meticulous brewing, and devoted followings in New York, San Francisco, Tokyo, and beyond.

It currently operates 78 U.S. locations and roughly 100 globally, and is still unprofitable, though reportedly expected to turn a profit in 2026.

Luckin is nearly the opposite: launched in Beijing in 2017, it fabricated over $300 million in sales, collapsed 75% in a day, and got delisted from Nasdaq in 2020. Under new leadership and Centurium's backing, it aggressively rebuilt to over 31,000 locations globally, more than double Starbucks' China footprint, and has begun opening U.S. locations, with nine so far.

The Blue Bottle deal pairs Luckin's scale, supply chain, and capital with a brand that represents everything Luckin isn't: slowness, craft, and premium positioning. Centurium had also reportedly evaluated Costa Coffee and the China operator of % Arabica before landing on Blue Bottle, suggesting this is a deliberate platform play, not a one-off bet.

Takeaway: Nestlé is exiting café operations and keeping the margins, while Centurium is assembling a two-brand coffee platform. The question is whether they can scale Blue Bottle without diluting it, or whether this is the opening move in something much larger.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Nvidia CEO Huang says $30 billion OpenAI investment 'might be the last' (CNBC)

• Apple announces MacBook Neo, its most affordable laptop ever (CNBC)

• Whoop to expand staff by 75% to spur growth ahead of likely IPO (YF)

• Record numbers of workers are raiding their 401(k) savings (WSJ)

• Morgan Stanley lays off 2,500 employees across all divisions (WSJ) 

• Blue Owl bearish bets at all-time high amid private credit fears (BB)

• Big Tech’s deals for AI data-center power present accounting questions (WSJ)

• Trump has an AI data center problem ahead of the midterms (CNBC)

• Investors ditch private credit funds on rising worries over bad loans (FT)

• Goldman strategists say buy any stocks dip from Iran and AI (YF) 

• Blackstone talks on $4 billion New World deal stall over control (BB)

• Palantir faces painful task of unwinding from Anthropic (YF)

• Iran’s $7.8 billion crypto market draws fresh attention in war (BB)

• Mexican billionaire Fernando Chico Pardo plots Banamex strategy after Citi deal (BB)

• Goldman’s Solomon says market reaction to war is ‘benign’ so far (BB)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. equities closed higher following stronger-than-expected economic data

• Technology and consumer discretionary led gains as growth sectors outperformed

• Asian markets fell sharply overnight, while European equities recovered earlier losses and ended higher

• Treasury yields rose after the strong data, with the 10-year yield at 4.09% and the 2-year at 3.54%

• WTI crude continued climbing amid the Iran conflict, closing just above $75 per barrel

Oil Price Spike Weighs on International Stocks

• The conflict in Iran has pushed oil prices sharply higher, with WTI rising above $70 for the first time since last summer

• U.S. equities are modestly lower this week, but international markets have experienced deeper declines

• The Euro Stoxx 50 has fallen more than 4% this week, while Japan’s Nikkei is down nearly 8%

• In emerging markets, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng has dropped about 5%, and Korea’s KOSPI has fallen roughly 18%

• Heavier reliance on imported energy is contributing to the weakness abroad

• The euro area imports ~68% of its energy, while Japan and Korea import more than 80%, compared with the U.S., which is a net energy exporter

• Historically, oil spikes tied to geopolitical events have been short-lived, and the EIA expects global petroleum production to exceed consumption over the next two years

Economic Data Highlights

• ADP private payrolls increased by 63,000 in February, above expectations for ~50,000

• The reading marks the strongest monthly job gain since last July

• Job growth was broad-based across goods-producing and service sectors

• Small businesses (1–19 employees) drove much of the increase, adding 58,000 jobs, the strongest gain since January 2024

• ISM Services PMI rose to 56.1, well above expectations and the highest reading since July 2022

• Labor market data remain in focus this week, with nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate due Friday

• Economists expect the unemployment rate to hold at 4.3% and payroll growth of ~60,000

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Moderna ($MRNA) +16% after the pharmaceutical company settled a COVID-19 vaccine patent lawsuit.

  (+) Coinbase ($COIN) +15% because Cathie Wood’s Ark bought $4M in shares.

• (–) Gitlab ($GTLB) -6% after the software company announced a weak sales forecast.

Prediction Markets

• Without the 10am Jane Street dump, maybe BTC will run.

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• TPG invested about $250 million into Findhelp, a social care technology platform

• Axelera AI, an AI inference chipmaker, raised $250 million

• PLD Space, a space transportation startup, raised about $195 million

• Cart.com, a commerce and logistics provider, raised $180 million

• Gropyus, an Austrian robotic homebuilding company, raised about $109 million

• QL Biopharm, an obesity biotech, raised $72 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Streetwise

Description: A candid and reflective memoir from the former Goldman Sachs CEO about navigating one of the most competitive institutions on Wall Street. Blankfein recounts his journey from working class beginnings in Brooklyn to leading the firm through the financial crisis and the intense scrutiny that followed. The book blends personal stories, leadership lessons, and behind the scenes insight into how decisions are made at the highest levels of global finance.

Book Length: 368 pages
Release Date: March 3, 2026

Ideal For: Finance professionals, aspiring leaders, Wall Street observers, and anyone interested in the culture and decision making behind one of the world’s most influential banks.

Long term success in elite organizations comes less from individual brilliance and more from judgment, resilience, and the ability to make hard decisions when the pressure is highest.

DAILY VISUAL

Wage Growth for Job Switchers Moving Higher

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Across client case studies, firms executing financing transactions reduced manual effort by up to 84% using Termgrid.

One mid-market buyout firm reduced 545 manual deal workflow hours to 86; releasing a total of 459 hours back to the deal team. Here is where they saw the time savings:

• Click-Through NDAs: 113 hours

• Integrated Data Room: 118 hours

• Comms & Reporting: 178 hours

• Term Sheets: 50 hours (not including legal fee savings)

Learn more about how this was achieved and see other results from Termgrid clients in 2025.

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DAILY ACUMEN

Slow Erosion

Relationships rarely fall apart in one dramatic moment. They erode slowly, through small dismissals, half-listened conversations, and the gradual habit of treating someone's presence as background noise.

By the time the damage is visible, it has usually been accumulating for years. The hard part is that the moments that cause it rarely feel significant when they're happening.

Most people don't lose the important relationships in their life. They just quietly neglect them until they're unrecognizable.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• The 7 best travel slings

• A Yale professor’s investment formula says you need more stocks

• A new money rule that will help you be happier

• How to spot a bad manager 

• What is loaded water?

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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