Good Morning! Jamie Dimon warned the Iran conflict could be a "skunk at the party" if inflation picks back up. Maine is about to become the first state to ban new data centers. And BNY Mellon and Robinhood are teaming up to run "Trump Accounts" for American children.

More Americans are breaking into the upper middle class than ever before. Neurocrine Biosciences is acquiring Soleno Therapeutics for $2.9B. And Goldman is warning laid-off tech workers: it will take time and a pay cut to find a new job.

Plus: Hedge funds are dumping global stocks at the fastest pace in 13 years, and the science behind optimism and manifestation.

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SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Citrini Monitoring the Situation

Citrini Research, the Substack firm behind the bearish AI report that rattled markets earlier this year, sent an anonymous "Analyst #3" to Oman's Musandam Peninsula, put him on a rickety speedboat with no GPS, and sent him into the Strait of Hormuz to observe shipping traffic firsthand during the Iran war.

Citrini equipped Analyst #3 with $15,000 in cash, Cuban cigars, and Zyn pouches. He rode 18 miles from the Iranian coast with Shahed drones overhead and Revolutionary Guard patrol boats in the distance, jumped into the water and swam (cigar in his mouth), and was eventually intercepted by the Coast Guard, detained, and had his phone confiscated before making it home.

What he found cuts against the dominant market narrative. The consensus view is that the Strait is effectively shut, choking off the corridor that carries roughly 20% of global oil. But Citrini says that's not quite right. Traffic is sharply reduced but ships are still moving, roughly 15 vessels per day while he was there, with volumes picking back up. (Many tankers are running dark, switching off AIS transponders, meaning official shipping data captures only about half of actual flows).

Based on interviews with fishermen, smugglers, and regional officials, Citrini argues this isn't a blockade, it's a tollbooth. Iran is selectively granting passage, with tankers required to submit vessel information through a broker and pay in cash, crypto, or through diplomatic channels like unfreezing Iranian assets abroad. Markets have been trading a war with incomplete data, so Citrini sent an analyst to the Strait to build an off-grid read on what was actually happening.

The firm's pitch isn't that oil is going to $200. It's that the disruption is partial, chaotic, and being misread by a market that prefers simple narratives. The cleaner trade per Citrini: longer-dated crude (specifically December 2026 WTI), on the view that geopolitical risk stays embedded longer than traders expect.

Takeaway: Hedge funds are supposed to send analysts to conferences, factories, and the occasional trade show. Sending one into an active war zone to count tankers (and getting detained in the process) is a different level of conviction. Citrini may end up wrong on Hormuz, but the bigger point stands: in a geopolitical market, the edge isn't always a better spreadsheet. Sometimes it's being willing to go where everyone else is too sane to look.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

• JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon annual letter cites risks in geopolitics, AI, private markets (CNBC)

• Jamie Dimon highlights Iran War, private credit, and AI-driven job losses as major US risks in his annual letter (YF)

• Jamie Dimon warns that the Iran war could bring an economic ‘skunk’ to the party (CNN)

• Goldman Sachs private credit fund dodges exodus with 4.999% redemptions (BB)

• Robinhood, BNY to build Trump accounts app (CNBC)

• More Americans are breaking into the upper middle class (WSJ)

• Neurocrine Biosciences to buy Soleno Therapeutics in $2.9B deal (Axios)

• Maine is about to become the first state to ban new data centers (WSJ)

• Hedge funds bail from global stocks at fastest pace in 13 years (BB)

• An inside look at OpenAI and Anthropic’s finances ahead of their IPOs (WSJ)

• Barclays hires Goldman’s Fall for US leveraged finance role (BB)

• Micron is slumping and rival’s $10 billion US listing won’t help (BB)

• Oracle taps new CFO to navigate data center building spree (BB)

• Hedge funds turn bullish on wheat for first time in four years (BB)

• Mount Everest guides allegedly poisoned tourists in insurance scam (Hill)

• A guide to the Gulf’s trillions of dollars of sovereign wealth (WSJ)

• Buyout firms unleash divide & conquer tactics against creditors (BB)

• He turned down Ken Griffin to run his own fund. That was $20 billion ago (WSJ)

• Microsoft-tied data center bond sale draws $12.5 billion demand (BB)

• The Wall Street dealmaker charged with solving Paul Weiss’s identity crisis (WSJ)

• This is starting to look like a slow-motion bank run (NYT)

• Why investment trusts are going big on private equity (FT)

• The great Wall Street relocation that never quite happens (FT)

• Meta lays off hundreds as tech giant pushes forward with AI investment (NYP)

• SpaceX's IPO could supercharge the entire space industry (YF)

• Goldman Sachs' blunt warning to laid-off tech workers: It will take time and earnings loss to find a new job (YF)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Stocks edged higher as investors balanced ongoing Middle East uncertainty with resilient economic data

• Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, with potential strikes on Iran still on the table

• Oil prices stayed elevated, continuing to anchor market sentiment

• Bond yields moved modestly higher, reflecting inflation concerns

• Overall tone remains cautious, with markets reacting to both headlines and data

Labor Market Holding Steady

• The latest jobs report reinforced a resilient but moderating labor market

• Hiring remains broad-based, with strength across both goods and services

• Unemployment edged lower, signaling continued stability

• The current backdrop reflects slower hiring, but limited layoffs

• Even with energy-driven risks, the labor market continues to support economic stability

Inflation Back in Focus

• This week’s CPI report will be critical in assessing the impact of higher energy prices

• Rising oil is expected to push headline inflation higher in the near term

• Markets are increasingly pricing a delayed path for rate cuts

• The Fed still appears on an easing path, but timing remains uncertain

Movers & Shakers

• (+) AMC Entertainment ($AMC) +13% after Amazon MGM’s “Project Hail Mary” delivered AMC’s biggest opening weekend of 2026, boosting attendance 70% year-over-year, alongside a $425 million debt refinancing through its Odeon subsidiary.

• (+) Kratos Defense ($KTOS) +10% because Jefferies upgraded the drone company to a buy. 

• (–) Invesco ($IVZ) -5% after BlackRock filed to launch a competing Nasdaq-100 ETF, threatening Invesco’s dominant QQQ franchise.

Prediction Markets

• Let’s reboot ‘Kids Say The Darndest Things’ but for Trump.

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Neurocrine Biosciences will acquire Soleno Therapeutics for $2.9 billion

• Syneron Bio, a peptide drug discovery startup, raised $150 million

• Xoople, a developer of Earth-mapping satellites for AI, raised $130 million

• SpectronRx, a developer of medical isotopes, raised $85 million

• Manna Air Delivery, a consumer drone delivery company, raised $50 million

• Noon, a product design platform, raised $44 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

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ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• The science behind optimism and manifestation 

• 5 green flags to look for when dating

• The mindset to be more persistent, resilient, and successful

• Why a wandering mind is a gift

• How time blocking helps you get the most out of your day

• Build 3 statement models, DCFs and LBOs in 10 minutes*

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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