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🍋 Breakup Szn on Wall St

🍋 Breakup Szn on Wall St

Plus: Ellison could become richest man in the world after Oracle up ~30%, a new Ackman ETF, Cracker Barrel in hot water again, and Robinhood's new social media platform.

Short Squeez
September 10, 2025

Together With

"I think the economy is weakening. Whether it's on the way to recession or just weakening, I don't know." — Jamie Dimon

Good Morning! Oracle missed earnings but still ripped ~30% after hours on raised guidance and a $30B OpenAI deal, sending Larry Ellison’s fortune up $70B and putting him just behind Elon ($364B vs. $384B).

VistaShares is launching a new Bill Ackman ETF after the success of its Warren Buffett tracker. Apple unveiled the iPhone 17, an ultra-thin iPhone Air, and AirPods Pro 3 with live translation. CoreWeave launched a venture arm to back AI startups, and Robinhood dropped a new social media platform.

Plus: The real estate markets that are getting juiced by AI talent, Cracker Barrel’s second saga of the month, and how to run your schedule like a CEO.

Ensure team-wide consistency with centralized access to firm-approved content with Macabacus.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Breakup Szn on Wall St

Dealmaking is heating up, and it’s not just M&A back in full flow, corporate breakups are surging too. U.S. firms have announced $725 billion of divestitures through July, up 48% year over year, as boards bow to investor pressure. Wall Street, of course, is collecting fees on both sides.

Some of 2025’s biggest deals involve dismantling past tie-ups. Warner Bros. Discovery is splitting in two, unwinding its $43 billion merger less than four years after closing.

Keurig Dr Pepper’s $18 billion purchase of JDE Peet’s sets up a separation of its soda and coffee units, while Kraft Heinz has unveiled plans to break apart a decade after Warren Buffett and 3G Capital engineered its merger.

The same banks that once pitched “scale” as the solution are now selling “focus” and “agility.”

Bankers are rejoicing. Centerview Partners earned $60 million on Kraft’s 2015 merger and now stands to collect tens of millions more on its breakup.

JPMorgan pocketed $15 million in advisory fees and $140 million in financing revenue on Warner’s 2022 mega-merger, and is again advising on the split. Warner Bros. Discovery shares had fallen nearly 60% since the deal, weighed down by $50+ billion in debt, cost cuts that undermined competitiveness, and a $9.1 billion cable write-down.

Takeaway: M&A looks great in an Excel model, but promised synergies rarely materialize. Slower divisions drag down faster ones, and markets punish the bloated whole. Activists and boards now prefer streamlined companies that can trade at higher multiples. In any case, the bankers will be collecting their fees.

HEADLINES

Start With the Templates & Assets You Need, Not From Scratch

New mandate drops. You’re staring at a blank slide (or worse, copying last quarter’s deck) and surprise...the template changed yesterday. Cue the logo hunt, tombstone tweaks, and late-night proofing.

Macabacus frees your team from formatting, template & asset wrangling, and brand policing, so they can focus on what actually drives value: accurate models and client-ready decks.

Shared Libraries: One place for firm-approved content, digital assets, shapes, charts, and more. Searchable and always current, so no one builds critical presentations by recycling old decks.
Tombstones: Drop in up-to-date, presentation-ready creds instantly.
Logo Library: Insert 22M+ verified logos directly in PowerPoint, no screenshots, no brand drift, no “FYI” needed from your marketing team.
Presentation Templates: Always start from the latest, on-brand slides.

For VPs: It means client-ready outputs, fewer review cycles, faster turnaround, and a single source of truth your whole team can trust (Pair with Deck Check to proof presentation for errors & inconsistencies).

See how top banking teams use Macabacus' Digital Asset Management solutions.

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

U.S. stocks moved modestly higher, with all three major indexes in positive territory as investors awaited key inflation data.
S&P 500 is now up ~11% YTD, while the Nasdaq is up ~13%, supported by tech leadership.
10-year Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.08%, though yields remain near yearly lows, helping boost bond market returns.
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is up ~4.2% YTD, reflecting broad fixed-income gains as falling rates support prices.

Economic Data Highlights

CPI and PPI inflation data due today and Thursday will be the final major inputs before next week’s FOMC meeting.
Headline CPI is expected to rise to 2.9%, while headline PPI is expected to hold at 3.3% y/y.
The Fed is expected to cut rates at the September meeting and to continue gradually easing into 2026, likely targeting ~3.5% fed funds rate next year.

Reported Earnings

Rubrik (RBRK) – Reported strong subscription ARR growth and improving net retention; security platform adoption continues to expand.
Oracle (ORCL) – Cloud revenue exceeded expectations, with AI database demand cited as a key growth driver.
GameStop (GME) – Posted narrower-than-expected loss; digital sales mix improved but top-line growth remained muted.

Earnings Today

Chewy (CHWY) – Investors watching active customer growth, autoship penetration, and profitability trends.
Quantum (QMCO) – Key metrics: enterprise demand for storage solutions, subscription revenue, and margin expansion progress.

Movers & Shakers

(+) Nebius Group NV ($NBIS) +49% after announcing a $17.4 billion AI deal to supply AI infrastructure to Microsoft.
(+) UnitedHealth ($UNH) +9% because of reaffirming guidance, sees 78% of members in high-rated Medicare plans.
(–) Ablemare ($ALB) -11% after China restarted a lithium mine, increasing competition for the EV battery company.

Private Dealmaking

Mercor eyes $10B+ valuation on $450 million run rate
Arsenal Capital Partners agreed to buy ThermoSafe from Sonoco for up to $725 million
Cognition, an AI coding startup, raised $400 million
Fermi America, a nuclear private grid developer, raised $100 million
Exa, a search engine for AI, raised $85 million
Charm Therapeutics, a cancer drug developer, raised $80 million
Epigenic Therapeutics, a clinical drug development company, raised $60 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Yield

Description:
A riveting insider expose of how Google transformed from a powerful search engine into an advertising overlord. Drawing from firsthand reporting and industry experience, Paparo reveals how Google acquired and constructed its ad tech monopoly, ultimately controlling both sides of the market. This isn’t just a story of growth—it’s a narrative of coercion, power maneuvers, and the modern antitrust struggle.

Rating: Amazon 4.9 / 5

Book Length: 368 pages
Audiobook Length: 8 hrs 4 mins

Ideal For:
Media professionals, antitrust observers, technologists, ad tech insiders, and anyone curious about how modern monopolies are built—and challenged.

“This is the back-room tea on how the modern ad tech market was created… worth it for the diagrams alone.”

DAILY VISUAL

Robinhood Winning 2025

Want more? Visualize the markets with Carbon Finance

PRESENTED BY CARTA

Why Your Waterfall Models Are Leaving Money on the Table

The difference between a good exit and a great one in today’s M&A landscape hinges on precise waterfall distributions.

The next wave of M&A exits is more complex than ever; layered cap tables, structured rights, and increased scrutiny.

For PE firms still relying on Excel, these factors create a ceiling for accuracy and confidence. Carta’s latest whitepaper outlines how top firms are improving clarity, speed, and auditability with purpose-built waterfall modeling tools.

Inside, you’ll learn:

Why firms are retiring spreadsheet-based waterfall models
How forward-thinking GPs and CFOs are leveling up M&A readiness
What makes a “good” waterfall model in today’s landscape

DAILY ACUMEN

Second Order Thinking

Most people make decisions based on first-order effects: “This will feel good now.” Investors who win look to the second order: “What happens next?”

The market isn’t about today’s headline but tomorrow’s reaction to today’s headline. A rate cut might rally stocks in the moment, but what does it mean for inflation, for liquidity, for earnings six months from now?

Life works the same way. Should you take that job because the title looks good, or because the skills compound into something greater five years later?

Second-order thinkers play the longer game. They don’t just ask, What happens if I do this? They ask, And then what? And then what after that?

They are patient enough to trace the ripples forward before they throw the stone. The best opportunities are often those everyone else discards because the first-order cost looks too high or the first-order reward looks too small.

By the time the world catches up, you’re already positioned. The skill is to train your mind to sit with the decision until you’ve mapped its consequences at least two steps out—and then act decisively when the map reveals a path no one else is walking.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

Burnout is balance’s worst enemy
How to take the reigns of your schedule like a CEO
How long does it take to improve VO₂ max?
5 habits that supercharge productivity
The most effective productivity hack is still the simplest

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

short squeez intern that didn't get a return offer meme

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