Good Morning! The Dow crossed 50,000 for the first time in its 129-year history. Goldman is partnering with Anthropic to build AI agents that automate accounting and compliance. And KKR believes Arctos could eventually scale into a $100 billion platform.

KPMG reportedly pushed its auditor to pass on AI-driven cost savings. Thoma Bravo added a loan provision designed to sniff out creditor rebellions before they start. And Goldman warns the stock selloff isn’t over.

Plus: Manhattan luxury real estate is climbing back toward its 2016 peak thanks to strong Wall Street bonuses, Waymo is really run by remote workers in the Philippines, and how to 10x your productivity in just four hours.

Stop the endless back and forth of “final” decks. Try Macabacus’ Deck Check today.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Bonus Season is Back

After two choppy years, Wall Street’s bonus machine is roaring back to life. Bankers at JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America are seeing bonus pools jump at least 10% this year, after the best year for bank profits since 2021.

When banks rake in profits, bonuses follow. In 2025, trading desks were the primary driver. Volatility helped banks ride policy-driven volatility into one of the strongest equities years in history. Dealmaking made a comeback, too, after tariff fears faded and CEOs regained an appetite for risk.

Across JPMorgan, Goldman, and Bank of America, investment-banking revenue rose 12% year over year to $25.7 billion, while trading revenue surged 16% to $87.7 billion. That’s more than enough firepower to fund materially larger bonus checks.

Compensation consultants Johnson Associates expect investment-banking bonuses to rise 10% to 15% this year, with traders and asset and wealth management professionals potentially seeing even stronger outcomes depending on desk performance.

As always, headline averages mask dispersion. Top producers are likely to be rewarded disproportionately, while underperformers should expect little benefit from the broader pool expansion.

Not everyone is celebrating. HSBC is taking a tougher stance, with some bankers receiving zero bonuses as the firm leans further into an eat-what-you-kill model. BNP Paribas is weighing a roughly 10% increase to its global markets bonus pool after a record year, but overall payouts are expected to rise only modestly as M&A continues to lag internal targets.

Takeaway: This marks the second strong year in a row for Wall Street compensation. Last year, New York State estimated the total bonus pool reached a record $47.5 billion, with the average payout jumping nearly 30% to about $245,000. For bankers who feared the post-Covid surge was a one-off, this year’s checks suggest the cycle still has legs. AI may be trimming headcount at the margins, but for now, Wall Street’s bonus machine is still very much on.

PRESENTED BY MACABACUS

Retire the FINAL_final_v7 Deck

There are two kinds of “final” decks: the ones you send, and the ones you keep fixing. 

If yours is living somewhere around FINAL_final_v7, you are not alone. Every edit introduces drift: a slightly different font, a chart that nudges off-grid, and bullets that break. Multiply that across 60 plus slides and it turns into late-night cleanup right before the deck goes upstairs. 

Deck Check by Macabacus runs a fast quality pass across your pitchbooks, CIMs, and client decks to flag formatting, alignment, branding, and consistency issues, so “final” can actually mean final. 

Retire the FINAL_final.

Try Macabacus today.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Dow closes above 50,000 for the first time ever (ABC)

• Goldman Sachs taps Anthropic’s Claude to automate accounting, compliance roles (CNBC)

• KKR sees Arctos as linchpin for building a $100 billion business (BB)

• KPMG pressed its auditor to pass on AI cost savings (FT)

• Thoma Bravo inserts lender anti-rebellion clause in buyout loan (BB)

• Goldman traders warn stock selling isn’t over in choppy market (YF)

• Manhattan's luxury housing market is roaring back toward 2016 peak (NYP)

• Waymo is run by workers in the Philippines (Futurism)

• Amazon leads Big Tech’s $1 trillion wipeout as AI bubble fears ignite sell-off (CNBC)

• How America’s EV retreat is increasing China's control of global markets (CNBC)

• China's Luckin Coffee opens first high-end store as it takes on Starbucks (CNBC)

• Big Tech to spend $650 billion this year as AI race intensifies (BB)

• Higher private equity returns help fuel jump in MetLife profit (BB)

• Gambling stocks sag as prediction markets steal Super Bowl bets (YF)

• Ron Baron’s big SpaceX bet sidesteps SEC’s illiquid assets cap (BB)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. equities rebounded sharply as dip buyers stepped in, capping a volatile week

• S&P 500 +2%, Dow +2.5% to a new record above 50,000, Russell 2000 +3.5%

• Treasury yields ticked higher, with the 10-year up ~2 bps

• U.S. dollar and WTI crude were little changed amid ongoing U.S.–Iran tensions

• Gold and silver rose modestly but remain below their 2026 highs

Sector Trends

• Small caps led the rally, extending early-2026 leadership

• Technology bounced, though dispersion remains elevated amid AI capex scrutiny

Earnings & Corporate News

• Amazon announced $200B of planned AI-related capex for 2026; shares fell ~10% after hours on margin concerns

• Combined AI capex plans from Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Microsoft total ~$650B in 2026, a ~60% YoY increase

• Markets are increasingly selective, favoring firms with clearer AI monetization paths

Economic Data Highlights

• University of Michigan consumer sentiment improved, with lower inflation expectations in February

• Earnings season remains strong: ~79% of S&P 500 companies have beaten estimates with an ~8.2% average upside

• Q4 earnings growth expectations have risen to ~11.4%, with gains across 8 of 11 sectors

Looking Ahead

• The key 2026 theme remains broadening market leadership away from the most expensive mega-cap tech

• Solid fundamentals, improving sentiment, and broadening earnings support equities despite periodic volatility

• We continue to favor a diversified equity allocation across U.S. large- and mid-caps, international equities, and emerging markets

Movers & Shakers

• (+) CoreWeave ($CRWV) +21% after Nvidia will invest $2B more into the company.

• (+) Under Armour ($UAA) +20% because the apparel maker beat earnings.

• (–) Stellantis ($STLA) -24% after the automaker announced $26B hit from overhauling its business.

Prediction Markets

• Wasn’t Fed Chair nomination a done deal last week? Judy Shelton inches closer.

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Genius Sports acquired Legend, a digital sports and gaming media network, for up to $1.2 billion

• E&J Gallo Winery acquired Four Roses, a Kentucky bourbon brand, from Kirin for up to $775 million

• Kodiak Gas Services acquired Distributed Power Solutions, a provider of onsite power generation systems, for $675 million

• Fundamental, a foundation model company focused on tabular and relational data, raised $255 million

• Goodfire, an AI interpretability startup, raised $150 million

• Anchorage Digital, a crypto custody and banking platform, raised $100 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

AQ

Description: A practical guide to thriving in a world of change, uncertainty, and rapid disruption. Liz Tran introduces AQ, the “Agility Quotient,” as a new form of intelligence that helps people adapt, learn, and excel when yesterday’s rules no longer apply. Drawing on real world examples and her work with founders and executives, Tran offers tools and frameworks for building durable capabilities that keep you effective no matter what shift comes next.

Book Length: 256 pages
Release Date: February 3, 2026

Ideal For: Leaders, creators, entrepreneurs, teams, and anyone who wants to build resilience and adaptability as foundational skills for the future.

“Agility is not a nice to have ability. It is the intelligence that keeps you relevant in a changing world.”

DAILY VISUAL

The Cost of Winning AI

PRESENTED BY STELRIX

The Financial Tool Family Offices Have Used for Decades

Wealth borrows against itself.

Family offices and private banking clients have accessed capital this way for generations, using their portfolios as collateral while keeping investments intact and compounding. Traditional securities-backed lines require $100,000 minimums and weeks of underwriting, keeping this approach exclusive to institutional relationships.

Stelrix built that same infrastructure into a sleek gold card that connects directly to your existing brokerage. Your holdings stay exactly where they are, generating returns while you access spending power in real time. Limits adjust automatically based on your portfolio value, and pricing reflects actual risk rather than arbitrary credit scoring. This allows your investments to continue working while you maintain flexibility for opportunities that don't wait for liquidation timelines.

Reserve your gold card today.

DAILY ACUMEN

Reputation

You're judged not just by your actions but by your associations.

Stay silent when someone behaves badly? You're complicit. Associate with unethical people? You're suspect by proximity.

One bad association taints you. Good people avoid you. Now you're left with bad associations. Your reputation spirals through guilt by association.

The reverse works too. Associate with high-status people, gain status.

Reputation compounds in both directions.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• A reward program for the 21st century

• How to 10x your productivity potential in 4 hours

• 8 books on making friends

• Why protecting your joints should be a top priority 

• 5 work love languages every leader needs to understand

• Why so many writers are athletes

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

📣 Partner With Us: Get in front of an audience of over 1 million finance professionals, business leaders, and policy influencers. Submit a partnership inquiry.

📈 Grow With Us: Work directly with the Overheard on Wall Street team to scale your finance brand. Schedule your free consult.

🔒 Short Squeez Premium – Insiders: Access exclusive content, including investment analysis, wellness features, career tools, and our full recruiting resource library. Upgrade to Premium. 

🧢 Wall Street Shop: Explore our collection of finance-themed apparel and merchandise. Visit the shop.

📬 Deals Newsletter – Buysiders: A curated roundup of major M&A, private equity, and VC activity. Plus access to private deal flow. Subscribe here.