Good Morning! Medical supply firm Medline jumped more than 40% in debut after biggest IPO of 2025. Sweetgreen’s co-founder is exiting as salad sales soften. And Palantir CEO Alex Karp bought another ski retreat, a $120M former monastery in Colorado.

In today’s circular deal, Amazon is in talks to invest $10B in OpenAI. Ray Dalio pledged a “generous contribution” to Trump Accounts, giving 300,000 Connecticut children $250 each ($75M in total).

Plus: White-collar workers are growing more anxious about job security and the top ten business books of 2025.

OpenAI-backed Endex is deploying AI Excel agents using the newest GPT model release.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Blue Owl Pulls Out

Oracle has had a brutal few months. Since peaking at $328.33 on September 10 after unveiling a $300 billion data center partnership with OpenAI, the company has become a poster child for AI bubble fears, adding and then losing ~$400 billion in market capitalization (45% of its value) in just six months. (About 1 Netflix, sorry Larry Ellison)

Oracle’s $10 billion Michigan data center just lost its most important backer yesterday. Blue Owl Capital, the private credit heavyweight that has been supporting Oracle’s other U.S. data-center builds, walked away after financing talks stalled.

Blue Owl wasn’t just a lender; it was also the credibility layer. On prior Texas and New Mexico data centers, the firm engineered the SPV structures, and even wrote billion-dollar equity checks and locked Oracle into long-term leases that targeted 20%+ returns. That backing by one of the most prominent Wall Street private credit firms helped keep AI bubble concerns at bay.

That playbook worked, until this deal. Lenders demanded tougher terms as concerns mounted over Oracle’s rising leverage, aggressive AI spending, and the growing regulatory and construction risks tied to the Michigan site. Blackstone has explored stepping in, but with no agreement in place, the project’s financing remains in limbo.

Oracle’s net debt including leases sits around $105B, lease commitments have jumped from $100B to $248B in three months, and Morgan Stanley expects total obligations to approach $290B by 2028. Credit markets have noticed: CDS has widened, bonds have come under pressure, and lenders are questioning how much leverage Oracle can sustain with AI capex accelerating.

Takeaway: Private credit tends to blink before public markets because it underwrites downside first, not upside narratives. This isn’t Oracle losing a partner; it’s institutional capital signaling that the risk-return no longer works at current terms. AI demand isn’t the issue, underwriting discipline is, which helps explain the repricing of Oracle’s stock and bonds since September.

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New GPT Model Releases - What Does It Mean for Finance?

OpenAI’s Project Mercury appears to be paying off. GPT-5.2 released Wednesday and scored 68% on junior investment banking tasks. These models appear to be powering Endex: OpenAI’s Excel agent.  

Major Wall Street firms are rapidly adopting Endex for analyst tasks, as CEOs like Jamie Dimon warn that AI productivity gains will reshape finance teams and eliminate certain roles over the coming years.

They are also hiring additional bankers and analysts to train their agentic capabilities.

Request access to Endex today.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Medical supply firm Medline jumps more than 40% in debut after biggest IPO since 2021 (CNBC)

• Micron forecasts blowout earnings on booming AI market, shares rise 14% (YF)

• Palantir CEO Alex Karp paid a record $120 million for a former monastery in Colorado (WSJ)

• Ray Dalio just announced a donation to "Trump accounts" (Axios)

• BlackRock will match employee contributions into Trump accounts (BB)

• OpenAI is in talks with Amazon about an investment that could exceed $10 billion (CNBC)

• White-collar workers are growing increasingly anxious about job security (WSJ)

• Bitcoin's silent exodus hits crypto as longtime buyers cash out (YF)

• Steve Cohen mulls commodities unit as hedge funds pile into bets (BB)

• Blackstone led a $400 million investment in cybersecurity startup Cyera (WSJ)

• JPMorgan pulls $350B from Fed to buy up Treasuries (YF)

• $1 billion in de minimis tariff revenue has been collected since loophole closed (CNN)

• Goldman Sachs sees more M&A activity in Italy in 2026 (BB)

• Tesla's car business is only worth $30 a share, analyst warns (YF)

• JPMorgan’s private equity group raised more than $1.4 billion (WSJ)

• Nvidia director sells $44M in shares held for over 3 decades (YF)

• Baer tells clients with smaller accounts to add funds or exit (BB)

• Sweetgreen co-founder is stepping down from executive role (LinkedIn)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Stocks closed lower, led by weakness in mega-cap technology after reports that financing for a major Oracle data-center project fell through, weighing on the Nasdaq.

• Energy outperformed, rising about 2% as oil prices jumped following President Trump’s announcement of a blockade on Venezuelan-sanctioned oil tankers.

• Global markets were mixed: Asian equities moved higher on strong Japanese export data, while Europe finished mixed after cooler-than-expected U.K. inflation.

• Rates were little changed, with the 10-year Treasury yield ending near 4.15%.

Economic Data Highlights

• Earnings outlook remains constructive, with the S&P 500 on pace for a third straight year of 15%+ gains and technology and communication services again leading profit growth in 2025.

• 2026 expectations point to broader earnings growth, with all 11 S&P 500 sectors projected to post positive profit growth, led by industrials and materials.

• Bonds are on track for a third consecutive year of positive returns, reinforcing diversification benefits even as equities remain more attractive on a relative basis.

Earnings Today

• Accenture (ACN) – Focus on consulting demand and enterprise IT spending trends.

• Nike (NKE) – Watch inventory levels, pricing discipline, and consumer demand.

• FedEx (FDX) – Key read on global shipping volumes, margins, and cost controls.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Spirit Airlines ($SAVE) +15% after the airline will reportedly merge with Frontier Airlines.

• (+) Udemy, Inc. ($UDMY) +13% because the company announced an all-stock merger with Coursera.

• (–) Oracle ($ORCL) -5% after Blue Owl pulled out of backing its data center.

Prediction Markets

• CPI for November gets announced at 8:29am EST today.

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• KKR sold Avendus, an Indian investment bank, for up to $523 million

• Tebra, an electronic health records platform, raised $250 million

• Premialab, a provider of data and analytics for quantitative investing, raised $220 million

• MoEngage, a customer engagement platform for consumer brands, raised $180 million

• Ambros Therapeutics, a developer of non-opioid pain medicines, raised $125 million

• Octane, a recreational vehicle financing platform, raised $100 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Revenge of the Tipping Point

Description: A provocative follow-up to The Tipping Point that revisits social contagion with fresh urgency, exploring how ideas, behaviors, and crises ripple through societies — for better and worse. Gladwell uses riveting stories from bank robberies to the opioid epidemic, Ivy League admissions to media shifts, to show how “superspreaders” and engineered narratives shape cultures, markets, and outcomes in ways we rarely see coming. 

Book Length: 352
Release Date: October 1, 2024 

Ideal For: Social scientists, policy thinkers, marketers, and anyone curious about how patterns spread — and how they can be steered or misused.

“When tipping points aren’t accidental but engineered, the question stops being ‘why did this spread?’ and becomes ‘who decided this should?’”

DAILY VISUAL

SpaceX Worth $800B

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DAILY ACUMEN

Strategic Ignorance

Tim Ferriss practices "selective ignorance,” deliberately choosing what not to know. He doesn't watch the news, doesn't check email before noon, and avoids information that doesn't help him make better decisions.

Warren Buffett reads 500 pages a day but ignores 99% of what crosses his desk. In an age of information overload, the ability to ignore strategically is more valuable than the ability to consume voraciously.

Not all information is created equal, and most of it is noise masquerading as signal.

The average person is bombarded with 34 gigabytes of information daily - enough to overload a laptop in a week. But more information doesn't lead to better decisions; it leads to paralysis.

Curate your inputs ruthlessly. Unsubscribe from newsletters you don't read. Unfollow social media accounts that don't add value. Stop checking news constantly, if it's truly important, you'll hear about it.

Your attention is your most valuable asset. What information could you stop consuming that would actually make you more effective?

Remember, the art of being wise is the art of knowing what to overlook.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• How to trade AI compute like electricity

• Top ten business books for 2025

• Does walking count as exercise?

• How to keep small talk flowing

• Look below the waterline when hiring leaders

• How to pack a suitcase efficiently

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Memes of the Day

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