Good Morning! Super Micro shares tanked 33% after employees were charged with smuggling Nvidia chips to China. Goldman Sachs expects M&A to accelerate this year despite the Iran war and cloudy economic backdrop. And OpenAI is doubling its headcount as the firm gears up for an IPO.

Blackstone's flagship credit fund posted its first monthly loss since 2022. Peter Thiel's VC firm is backing an AI cow collar startup at a $2 billion valuation. And xAI is sending engineers directly to client sites to poach business from OpenAI.

Plus: UBS secured a bank license to expand its US wealth arm, investors are brushing off Bloomberg terminal doomsayers, and how to challenge your brain and keep it healthy.

The best finance workflows start with a plan. Build the perfect agent workflow with Plan Mode from F2.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Big Brother Joined the Analyst Class

JPMorgan introduced a system that compares junior bankers' self-reported working hours against actual digital activity, such as keystrokes, video calls, scheduled meetings, and shares the discrepancy report directly with the employees. 

The bank is framing it as a wellness tool, essentially a Screen Time notification. "Much like the weekly screen time summaries on a smartphone, this tool is about awareness, not enforcement," JPMorgan said in a statement. But some critics are saying that’s exactly what someone would say if it were about enforcement.

The reason the bank has to cross-check is that junior bankers have reportedly been underreporting their hours, not to avoid overtime pay, but to avoid being pulled off deals. Log 90 hours and you might get flagged as overloaded and rotated out. Log 70 while working 100 and you stay on the mandate.

The backdrop matters here. A Bank of America junior banker died in 2024 following weeks reportedly exceeding 100 hours, the incident that forced genuine industry-wide scrutiny and pushed firms to actually act.

JPMorgan capped junior banker weeks at 80 hours and appointed a senior banker to oversee wellbeing. Goldman Sachs monitors activity levels and flags high-output employees for mandatory breaks. Bank of America introduced its own tracking tool for interns that same year.

These firms are paying analysts ~$200K a year and the expectation of availability doesn't disappear because a policy memo says it should.

Takeaway: JPMorgan isn't the villain here and the wellness framing isn't entirely cynical. The industry has a real problem and is at least trying to measure it. But the detail that junior bankers are lying about their hours to stay on deals tells you everything about the culture these tools are trying to fix.

You can build the most sophisticated keystroke tracker in finance. You cannot easily change the part where a 23-year-old decides that grinding through the weekend beats getting rotated off a live M&A mandate.

PRESENTED BY F2

AI That Won’t ‘Jump the Gun’

Isn’t it the most frustrating thing when you prompt GPT, Claude, Grok (insert your favorite finance AI here), and they immediately jump to working rather than listening and planning?

Thus follows the typical AI workflow in finance:

1) Run it. 2) Review it. 3) Find assumption errors. 4) Redo it.

While AI may be helpful, it has a tendency to act first and ask questions later (unless prompted).

Plan Mode from F2 lets you review the entire workflow before it runs:

• the logic

• the assumptions

• the build path

Build the plan upfront, let the agents handle the grunt work.

This equates to fewer drafts, faster outputs, and way less time retracing steps.

See how Plan Mode works.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Super Micro co-founder charged with smuggling Nvidia chips to China (CNBC)

• Goldman Sachs expects M&A activity to accelerate this year despite war (Axios)

• OpenAI to double workforce as business push intensifies (YF)

• Flagship Blackstone credit fund posts first monthly loss since 2022 (FT)

• Peter Thiel’s VC firm backs AI cow collar startup at a $2 billion valuation (BB)

• xAI sends engineers to client sites to win business from OpenAI (BB)

• OpenAI plans launch of desktop superapp to refocus, simplify user experience (WSJ)

• UBS secures bank license for its campaign to expand US wealth arm (WSJ)

• Investors brush off Bloomberg terminal doomsayers (LI)

• Centerview to face trial over star banker’s pay dispute (FT)

• Blackstone raises $12 billion for Asia PE fund as it nears close (BB)

• Trump invokes emergency powers with $23B in Gulf arms sales (CNBC)

• Iran war hopes lift markets (Axios)

• US equity fund outflows surge as investors dial down rate cut expectations (YF)

• Trump admin unveils national AI policy framework to limit state power (CNBC)

• US yields continue to push higher as inflation fears persist (BB)

• The White House just laid out how it wants to regulate AI (CNN)

• Nvidia's Huang pitches AI tokens on top of salary (CNBC)

• Everything you need to know about the David protein bar lawsuit (GQ)

• How Goldman Sachs stays agile: HR leader Jacqueline Arthur (MIT)

• Why a $150M startup thinks it can solve the $460B loneliness problem (Fortune)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Pressure

• U.S. equities declined sharply as rising yields and geopolitical risks weighed on sentiment

• The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to just below 4.4%, up significantly from sub-4.0% levels at the end of February

• Higher oil prices have pushed inflation expectations higher and reduced expectations for Fed easing

• Energy and financials were the only sectors to finish higher

• Technology, utilities, and real estate lagged amid sensitivity to higher rates

• The U.S. dollar strengthened, up roughly 2% in March, reflecting safe-haven demand

• WTI crude edged higher as uncertainty around the Middle East conflict persists

Earnings Outlook

• The S&P 500 is now about 5% below its late-January all-time high

• Market pullbacks remain normal, with historical averages showing:

  • ~3 pullbacks of 5% per year

  • ~1 pullback of 10% per year

• Despite volatility, earnings expectations remain strong

  • S&P 500 earnings projected to grow ~17% in 2026

  • International earnings (MSCI ACWI ex-U.S.) expected to grow ~18%

• Growth remains supported by:

  • Continued technology sector strength

  • Broad-based global earnings expansion

• We continue to see attractive opportunities across U.S., emerging markets, and international equities

Global Policy Landscape

• Major central banks including the Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ, and Bank of Canada all held rates steady

• The Bank of England shifted to a more hawkish tone, removing prior guidance on easing

  • UK 2-year yields rose sharply, up ~0.7% this month

• The Bank of Japan signaled potential further rate hikes if growth holds

• The ECB and Bank of Canada maintained a more cautious, data-dependent stance

• The Federal Reserve raised its inflation forecasts for 2026, citing:

  • Higher oil prices

  • Tariff-related pressures

• Despite this, the Fed still projects one rate cut in 2026

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Planet Labs ($PL) +25% after the satellite imagery company beat Q4 revenue estimates and issued first-quarter and full-year guidance above Wall Street's expectations.

• (+) SolarEdge ($SEDG) +13% because Jefferies and Bank of America both upgraded the solar company, citing rising energy demand driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

• (–) Super Micro Computer ($SMCI) -33% after U.S. prosecutors charged several company employees with smuggling Nvidia chips to China.

Prediction Markets

• New Yorkers don’t drive anyway, right? Oil price market settles at 2:30pm EDT.

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• 3M and Bain Capital will acquire Madison Fire & Rescue for $1.95 billion

• Verily, a life sciences company, raised $300 million

• Oasis Security, a cybersecurity startup, raised $120 million

• Cape, a mobile carrier platform, raised $100 million

• Vizgen, a spatial biology and multiomics biotech, raised $48 million

• Native, a cloud security startup, raised $42 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

All The Little Houses

Description: A tense and atmospheric thriller set in an idyllic suburban community where nothing is quite as perfect as it seems. Cobb weaves a story of secrets, ambition, and quiet desperation, as relationships begin to fracture and hidden truths surface. Through shifting perspectives and mounting suspense, the novel explores how the pursuit of the “perfect life” can unravel into something far darker.

Book Length: 320 pages
Release Date: January 20, 2026

Ideal For: Thriller fans, book clubs, and readers who enjoy character driven suspense with sharp social insight.

The most dangerous secrets are often the ones hidden behind lives that look perfect from the outside.

DAILY VISUAL

Global Growth Expectations Continue to Improve

PRESENTED BY NEXO

The Next Era of Digital Wealth

Nexo has officially returned to the US, bringing its Yield products back to American clients: Flexible and Fixed-Term Yield. 

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Need liquidity without selling? Nexo's Credit Line lets you borrow against your holdings, so you stay in your positions while accessing liquidity.

Since 2018, Nexo has served clients across 199+ jurisdictions, with 24/7 client care whenever you need it.

Nexo is the modern platform for HNWIs to store their digital assets. To mark their return to the US, new clients can unlock 30 days of Wealth Club Premier; one of Nexo's membership tiers that unlocks custom terms. 

Explore their platform and get started today. Terms apply.

DAILY ACUMEN

Rules

Every rule you live by was written by someone operating in a context that may have nothing to do with yours. Rules are built for average situations, average people, and average stakes. Your situation is specific and your life is not a case study.

This is not an argument for chaos. Most rules exist for good reasons and most people who ignore them are just rationalizing. But there is a difference between following a rule because you understand it and following one because it never occurred to you to question it.

Know which rules you're keeping by choice. The ones you follow blindly are the ones that will cost you the most.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• Am I rich?*

• How to challenge your brain and keep it healthy

• Why visibility has become the new test of leadership

• How to rest without guilt

• These 5 phrases differentiate highly successful people from everyone else

• What authentic leadership looks like under pressure

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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