Good morning! Trump extended the Iran ceasefire indefinitely, citing a fractured government. SpaceX has penciled in a $60B right-to-acquire deal for AI startup Cursor. Netflix is in talks to buy a historic LA studio lot at a steep discount to its 2021 $1.85B price after Goldman-led lenders repossessed it.

Fed nominee Kevin Warsh told his hearing he won't be Trump's sock puppet and made no rate commitments. A former partner at $36B hedge fund Davidson Kempner says he was pushed out after blowing the whistle. And banks are dangling 30% raises to meet surging India IPO demand.

Plus: Trump wants someone to buy Spirit Airlines, how a half-empty ex-KKR HQ became NYC's hottest office, and why hybrid fitness beats other workouts.

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SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Avis Goes Vertical

The latest short squeeze just dropped, and this time it's an airport rental car company. Avis Budget is up more than 600% in April and hit a record high yesterday, with trading halted multiple times before lunch after the stock ripped to around $740 a share.

The move has all the ingredients of a proper face-ripper. As of Monday, 86.2% of Avis's available float was sold short, basically meme-stock fuel.

Meanwhile, two hedge funds, SRS Investment Management and Pentwater Capital, control more than 71% of outstanding shares.

Pentwater has even been adding, filing Tuesday that it picked up another 34,700 shares at $85 each. That stake is now worth more than $4.3 billion. When that much of the float is bolted down by a couple of conviction holders with no reason to lend, shorts aren't really trading anymore, they're locked in a burning room with no door.

And once the squeeze begins, the script writes itself. The stock rises, shorts scramble to cover, the covering lifts it higher, more shorts get forced out, and suddenly an airport rental car business is trading like peak GameStop.

Short sellers have lost roughly $4.09 billion on Avis this month, nearly $1 billion on Monday alone. None of which has anything to do with the business suddenly finding religion. Avis lost $856 million last quarter, revenue declined, and both Barclays and Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock. The company also had a similar meme-style explosion back in 2021, so this isn't exactly uncharted territory.

Takeaway: Short sellers looked at a rental car company that just burned $856 million in a quarter and decided they'd found the cleanest trade on the board. Fundamentally, they may have been right. Mechanically, they got obliterated. That's the beauty and violence of a real short squeeze, the worse the setup looks on paper, the more painful it can get when positioning breaks against you. Avis the business may be struggling, but Avis the ticker just turned into the latest meme-stock war crime.

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Every major bank CEO in America was called into an emergency meeting with Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to discuss the latest frontier AI model release.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Trump extends ceasefire with Iran, citing government is "seriously fractured" (CNBC)

• SpaceX says it has agreement to acquire Cursor for $60 billion (BB)

• Netflix said to be in talks for LA studio lot seized by Goldman (BB)

• Warsh says Trump never asked him to commit on rates (BB)

• Davidson Kempner ex-partner says he blew the whistle and was forced out (BB)

• Banks dangle 30% raises for dealmakers to meet India IPO demand (BB)

• Trump: "I'd love somebody to buy" Spirit Airlines (Hill)

• How a half-empty NYC tower became the hottest office on the market (WSJ)

• Gates Foundation reviewing Jeffrey Epstein ties, will slash 20% of staff (CNBC)

• Blackstone fund cuts value of loan to dental implant company (BB)

• Revolut eyes valuation of up to $200 billion in eventual IPO (TechCrunch)

• Baird Capital raises $450 million for third private equity fund (BB)

• Private equity holdings look overvalued. Who's going to fix it? (WSJ)

• SEC monitoring emerging pressures in private credit space (BB)

• Amazon pharmacy and One Medical launch GLP-1 program (Axios)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Stocks slipped as geopolitical uncertainty resurfaced, reversing early gains

• Markets reacted to a pause in U.S.–Iran negotiations and looming ceasefire expiration

• Bond yields moved higher, reflecting renewed inflation concerns

• Oil prices climbed, adding pressure to risk sentiment

• Global markets diverged, with Asia stronger and Europe weaker

Geopolitics Driving the Tape

• The pause in negotiations has reintroduced near-term uncertainty into markets

• Investors appear cautious, but not panicked, suggesting baseline expectations still lean toward resolution

• Oil’s move higher shows how quickly risk premium can return to energy markets

• Europe is showing more sensitivity, highlighting regional exposure to energy shocks

Consumer and Labor Still Holding Up

• Retail data showed strong underlying demand, even excluding energy-related spending

• Consumer strength remains broad-based, not just inflation-driven

• Labor trends continue to point to a stable, gradually cooling environment

• This combination supports a backdrop of resilient economic growth

• The consumer remains a key anchor preventing downside macro scenarios

Fed Outlook in Focus

• Attention is shifting toward potential leadership changes at the Federal Reserve

• A more dovish tilt at the top could influence rate expectations at the margin

• However, policy decisions remain committee-driven, limiting any single voice

• Markets continue to expect gradual easing, not aggressive cuts

• The path of inflation, especially tied to oil, remains the key swing factor

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Spirit Airlines ($FLYYQ) +122% after Bloomberg reported the bankrupt carrier floated offering the U.S. government an equity stake, sparking a short squeeze.

• (+) UnitedHealth ($UNH) +7% because the health insurance giant beat Q1 estimates with adjusted EPS of $7.23 vs. $6.65 expected.

• (–) JetBlue ($JBLU) -5% after JetBlue’s founder David Neeleman publicly warned the airline is headed for bankruptcy,

Prediction Markets

• Earnings Call Special (after markets close): Tesla

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Blue Owl Capital agreed to acquire Sila Realty Trust for $2.4 billion

• Blue Energy, a prefabricated nuclear power plant company, raised $380 million​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

• Neomorph, a developer of molecular glue degraders for addressing undruggable proteins, raised $100 million

• Adcendo, a Danish developer of ADCs for treating cancers, raised $75 million

• Wealth.com, an estate planning platform, raised $65 million

• Storm Therapeutics, a developer of RNA-retargeting cancer drugs, raised $56 million

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BOOK OF THE DAY

Tell Me Everything

Description:
A tactical communication guide from Brad Beeler on how to build trust quickly and get to the truth in high-stakes situations. Drawing from real-world experience, the book breaks down techniques for reading people, asking better questions, and creating environments where others feel comfortable opening up. It focuses on practical methods to improve influence, uncover hidden information, and communicate effectively under pressure.

Book Length: 256 pages
Release Date: February 17, 2026

Ideal For:
Leaders, operators, and anyone looking to improve communication, build trust faster, and navigate complex interpersonal dynamics.

People will tell you everything if you know how to make them feel safe enough to speak.

DAILY VISUAL

Mortgage Rate Hangover

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A Private Bank in Your Wallet

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DAILY ACUMEN

Allies

The people who celebrate your wins with genuine enthusiasm are a smaller group than you think. Most people are fine with you succeeding as long as you do not succeed too much, too fast, or in a direction that makes them reconsider their own choices. The moment your trajectory threatens the story they tell themselves about their own, the warmth cools in ways that are hard to name and impossible to miss.

Rooting for someone else's actual flourishing, without any edge of comparison, is genuinely rare.

Pay close attention to the people who light up when you win. They are worth more than almost anything else you will accumulate.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• Why money is more mental

• Why hybrid fitness is more efficient than other workouts

• We may have less control over how long we live than previously thought

• Why your workout isn’t working

• 10 phrases highly approachable people use

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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