🍋 ARMageddon

Why the biggest IPO of the year could be a flop, plus tech billionaire's secret green city, and job growth cooled.

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"Cynicism masquerades as wisdom, but it is the furthest thing from it." — Stephen Colbert

 

Good Morning! Job growth cooled in August, providing hope for a soft landing. And speaking of great news for the economy, Taylor Swift’s releasing an Era’s Tour movie next month to celebrate the $2.2 billion grossing tour. But she probably won’t catch Barbie, which officially became the highest-grossing film of 2023 this weekend.

Robinhood struck a deal with the Feds to buy back SBF’s stake for $605 million - the disgraced crypto mogul might have gone too far supporting Robin Da Hood’s mission of stealing from the rich. And tech billionaires planned to build a green utopia near Fairfield, CA - but their plans might have backfired after getting outed for snatching up 52k acres of farmland.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

ARMageddon

If you work in investment banking, you know the IPO market has been looking bleak for almost 2 years. But Arm Ltd., the British chipmaker, offered a glimpse of hope.

Arm is going public this year, and investors salivated over the estimated valuation from $60 billion to $70 billion. And Apple, Nvidia, Intel, and Samsung are all in line to be strategic investors in this blockbuster IPO.

But Wall Street's kicking off Arm's roadshow (essentially a sales pitch to investors) this week. And the word on the street? Temper expectations.

Arm was looking to raise $10 billion during its IPO. But now it’s looking for a modest quest of $5-7 billion and could slash its estimated valuation by almost a third.

Key investor concerns? China risks slowing smartphone market growth, and uncertainty regarding AI adoption.

Takeaway: Investors once thought Arm’s valuation could easily reach $80 billion. And an IPO flop might not be enough for the company’s owner (SoftBank) to offset its 2016 acquisition. (Softbank bought a 25% interest in Arm from the Vision Fund for $16.1 billion, at a $64 billion valuation)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Stocks closed mixed ahead of Labor Day Weekend.

Movers & Shakers

  • (+) Dell Technologies ($DELL) +21% after crushing Q2 earnings.

  • (+) Lululemon ($LULU) +6% after posting an earnings beat.

  • (–) Tesla ($TSLA) -5% after cutting prices on Model S and Model X vehicles in China.

Private Dealmaking

  • Beta Bionics, a diabetes management solutions developer, raised $100 million

  • AeroSafe Global, a provider of life sciences chain solutions, raised $43 million

  • Sortera, a materials sorting company, raised $30.5 million

  • Optalysys, a data encryption company, raised $27 million

  • Better Life Partners, a provider of health services for people with addictions, raised $26.5 million

  • Cypago, a cybersecurity automation startup, raised $13 million

Get access to private deal flow here.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

  • Are leveraged ETFs worth the costs and risks? (WSJ)

  • How Tiger Global fell to earth (Fortune)

  • Sculptor raises questions over how to value a hedge fund (Axios)

  • How Wall Street REIT giants are reshaping U.S. real estate (CNBC)

  • Private equity, hedge funds sue SEC to fend off oversight (WSJ)

  • Why wealthy customers are the most worrisome for banks right now (YF)

  • Crypto regulation gets even messier after SEC setbacks (Axios)

  • Instacart IPO filing sparked online spat (CNBC)

  • Salesforce revs its VC engine in AI arms race (Axios)

BOOK OF THE DAY

Broken Money

Broken Money explores the history of money through the lens of technology. Politics can affect things temporarily and locally, but technology is what drives things forward globally and permanently.

The book's goal is for the reader to walk away with a deep understanding of money and monetary history, both in terms of theoretical foundations and in terms of practical implications.

From shells to gold, from papyrus bills of exchange to central banks, and from the invention of the telegraph to the creation of Bitcoin, Lyn Alden walks the reader through the emergence of new technologies that have shaped what we use as money over the ages.

And beyond that, Alden explores the concept of what money is at its very foundation to give the reader a framework to analyze and compare different types of monetary technologies and monetary theories.

The book also takes a distinctively human look at how money impacts the lives of real people, and how new monetary technologies shape the power structures within society.

“Europe and Japan had $18 trillion worth of negative-yielding bonds in 2019, right before a wave of inflation wiped their purchasing power away.”

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

  • How Jussi Askola built a 7-figure business on Seeking Alpha

  • New York is in a golden era of bodega food

  • The path to lifelong happiness comes down to 7 simple choices

  • You have the power to change people’s brain chemistry

  • Captivate your presentation audience with these 6 hacks

  • 5 ways to be a stand-out leader and excel in your career

DAILY VISUAL

More Mothers are Working Than Ever Before

Labor force participation rate for mothers with kids under age 5

Source: Axios

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DAILY ACUMEN

Open-Minded & Closed-Minded People

“How you respond to anomalies is a good indicator of your open-mindedness. Anomalies are like a glitch in the matrix.

You can identify these moments when you find something surprising, missing, or strange. Anomalies indicate the world doesn’t work the way you thought it did.

These moments can be worth their weight in gold if you pay attention. Closed-minded people tend to ignore or gloss over anomalies.

Open-minded people want to dive in and understand. Of course, diving in is hard as it may require you to discard your ideas and beliefs.”

Source: Farnam Street

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

 

 

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