Good Morning! U.S. stocks are off to their worst start to a year versus global markets since 1995. The Seattle Seahawks are up for sale just weeks after winning the Super Bowl, with a reported price tag near $10B. And Etsy is selling Depop, a favorite resale app of Gen Z, to eBay.

JPMorgan plans to open 160 new branches in 2026. Goldman CEO David Solomon, once a crypto skeptic, says he now owns Bitcoin. And JPMorgan’s 55-seat private pub inside its $3B headquarters is booked out weeks in advance, leaving many bankers unable to visit.

Plus: Palantir CEO Alex Karp spent $17M on private jets in 2025, about 2,547 flight hours, or nearly 30% of the year, and Jamie Dimon’s advice for surviving the grunt phase of your career.

An overlooked policy framework could quietly reshape how capital flows through U.S. markets. See what historical patterns Jim Rickards has identified and how you can benefit.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

AI’s Leverage Party

Wall Street keeps waiting for the next big tech IPO. Between SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic rumors, 2026 could be a banner year for listings. But the real capital-markets boom isn’t happening in equity; it’s happening in debt.

UBS estimates global tech and AI-related bond issuance could approach $1 trillion this year, after more than doubling to $710 billion last year. Morgan Stanley sees a $1.5 trillion financing gap tied to AI infrastructure alone. And that gap isn’t being filled by IPOs; it’s being absorbed by the credit markets.

The hyperscalers, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft, are projected to spend nearly $700 billion this year on AI capex and finance leases. Even for companies of that scale, that kind of buildout stretches internal cash generation. The result is a wave of high-grade issuances.

Alphabet recently upsized a bond sale to more than $30 billion after placing $25 billion in November, and then tapped Europe for roughly $11 billion more. Oracle sold $25 billion in high-grade debt and is signaling as much as $50 billion in total fundraising this year.

Amazon filed a mixed shelf registration, flagging flexibility to issue debt or equity. Meanwhile, Goldman expects roughly 120 IPOs raising $160 billion this year, a rebound from 2024 but still far below 2021’s peak.

Demand for mega-cap paper remains strong. Alphabet’s bonds were multiple times oversubscribed, pricing only modestly above Treasuries. Spreads are historically tight. But supply is accelerating, and tech already accounts for about 9% of investment-grade indexes, a figure some expect to climb into the mid-teens. The equity market’s concentration risk is quietly being replicated in fixed income.

Takeaway: The AI cycle is being financed less through dilution and more through leverage. For now, bond investors are comfortable funding hyperscaler capex at tight spreads, betting that cash flows will justify the buildout. But as supply mounts, the marginal cost of capital rises for the broader market. If AI demand falters or growth slows, equity markets won’t be the only ones getting cooked.

PRESENTED BY PARADIGM PRESS

A Little-Known Law That Could Change the Economic Playbook

Most market narratives focus on rates, earnings, or AI. Far fewer examine the legal infrastructure that governs how the U.S. mobilizes resources during periods of strategic urgency.

There exists a long-standing federal statute that gives the executive branch broad authority to coordinate industrial production, supply chains, and resource allocation when national priorities are at stake. Historically, this framework has only been used during moments of extreme economic or geopolitical pressure; and when activated, it has materially altered demand patterns across energy, materials, and manufacturing.

Understanding how government-directed industrial policy works (and where it concentrates capital) helps explain why certain sectors experience outsized, multi-year tailwinds while others stagnate. This isn’t about predictions. It’s about understanding structure, incentives, and historical precedent.

Watch the full video here.*

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• US stocks are off to their worst start versus the global market since 1995 (YF)

• Seattle Seahawks announce they're up for sale (YF)

• EBay acquires fashion resaler Depop from Etsy for $1.2B (CNBC)

• JPMorgan Chase to open 160 new bank branches in 2026 (Axios)

• Goldman Sachs CEO owns ‘very little’ Bitcoin, backs Bessent on Clarity Act (YF)

• JPMorgan opened a bar for employees. If only they could get in (WSJ)

• Fed officials split on where interest rates should go, minutes say (CNBC)

• Palantir CEO Alex Karp spent $17.2 million on private jets in 2025 (YF)

• Figma stock jumps 15% as company sees AI monetization accelerating growth (CNBC)

• Oil jumps 4% after Vance says Iran ignored key U.S. demands, military strikes on the table (CNBC)

• The 'boomcession': Why Americans feel left behind by a growing economy (CNBC)

• Tylenol maker Kenvue to cut 3.5% of workforce (WSJ)

• Soaring coffee prices rewrite some Americans' daily routines (AP)

• Gold and silver continue to climb after January rout (BB)

• Long-term unemployment is becoming 'a status quo' in today's job market (CNBC)

• Wingstop beats Wall Street forecasts even as sales slide (WSJ)

• China's tech shock threatens U.S. AI monopoly: 'just getting started' (CNBC)

• Wearable robotics are changing how we walk and run (Fox)

• Fund beating 99% of peers sees few software firms surviving AI (BB)

• After 16,831% jump, Booking splits one of the priciest US stocks (BB)

• RBC hires Goldman trader Noel Reyes in equity algorithm push (BB)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. equities closed higher following stronger-than-expected manufacturing and housing data

• Consumer discretionary and energy led gains, with energy boosted by a ~5% jump in oil prices

• Utilities and real estate lagged as interest-rate-sensitive sectors underperformed

• Treasury yields moved higher, with the 10-year at 4.09% and 2-year at 3.46%

• WTI crude surged on reports that U.S.–Iran talks have stalled

Economic Data Highlights

• Durable goods orders (Dec) fell 1.4%, slightly better than expected, dragged down by a 25% drop in aircraft

• Core durable goods rose 0.9%, well above expectations, signaling firmer business investment

• Industrial production (Jan) increased 0.7%, topping forecasts for 0.4%

• Housing starts beat expectations, with single-family starts at a 10-month high

• Data point to stabilization in U.S. manufacturing after a multiyear slowdown

Sector Trends

• Energy strengthened alongside rising oil prices

• Consumer discretionary benefited from signs of resilient demand

• Utilities and real estate weakened as yields moved higher

• Manufacturing-linked sectors continue to show improving momentum

Macro Themes

• U.S. dollar remains weaker in early 2026, breaking its prior multiyear uptrend

• Historically, dollar weakness has coincided with stronger returns for U.S. equities, international developed markets, and emerging markets

• Manufacturing data, ISM improvement, and AI-related investment trends suggest economic momentum remains intact

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Madison Square Garden ($MSGS) +16% after the company announced plans to spin off its New York Knicks business from the New York Rangers.

• (+) Wingstop ($WING) +11% because Truist raised its price target for the wing chain on strong results.

• (–) Palo Alto Networks ($PANW) -7% after the cybersecurity company’s guidance missed analysts’ expectations.

Prediction Markets

• Trump v. Powell will go down as one of the greatest rivalries in history. Fed rate decision in March.

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Vestwell, a 401k savings plan company, raised $385 million 

• Kavak, an online used car marketplace, raised $300 million

• Heron Power, a solid-state transformer manufacturer, raised $140 million

• Simile, developer of an AI model for predicting human behavior, raised $100 million

• Lassie, a pet insurer, raised $75 million

• Naboo, an events procurement platform, raised $70 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Thinking Sideways

Description: A strategic guide that uses the mindset of master chess players to improve decision making and life outcomes. Shahade translates chess principles, like looking ahead, evaluating tradeoffs, patience, pattern recognition, and adapting to surprises, into practical frameworks for everyday challenges. The book helps you approach choices with greater clarity, foresight, and confidence.

Book Length: 272 pages
Release Date: April 7, 2026

Ideal For: Leaders, thinkers, problem solvers, competitors, and anyone who wants to sharpen their judgment and approach life with a strategic edge.

“Life is a board of choices. Strategy is the art of seeing the move before it becomes obvious.”

DAILY VISUAL

Berkshire’s $382B Cash Pile Visualized

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You can earn institutional-grade yield on idle cash (without lockups, hidden fees, or confusing structures) while keeping your money ready for the next investment opportunity.

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DAILY ACUMEN

Borrowed Ambition

Everyone around you has an opinion about what you should want. The corner office. The startup exit. The published book. But borrowed ambition is a debt you pay with your life.

René Girard spent his career studying how humans don't generate their own desires. They copy them from others, then compete furiously for things they never actually wanted.

The most disorienting moment in achievement isn't failure. It's arriving somewhere you worked years to reach and feeling nothing. That emptiness is the bill coming due on borrowed ambition.

Before chasing the next thing, ask the uncomfortable question: did I actually want this, or did I want someone else to see me have it? Your answer changes everything.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• The detrimental effects of psychopathic traits on job performance 

• 3 ways to harness the power of your unfocused mine

• Jamie Dimon’s advice for getting through the grunt part of a job

• 4-step conversation framework to sound clearer and more confident

• Why Gen-Z is doing admin nights

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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