Good Morning! The US economy slowed to 1.5% growth in Q2 with core inflation at 3.3%. The stock market ripped anyway after Microsoft had its best single day since 2008. But two private equity-backed IPOs, Blackstone-backed Jersey Mike's and Permira-backed Reformation, both stumbled out of the gate. 

KKR profits soared as it cashed in a record amount of private equity bets. Amazon shares jumped as cloud sales accelerated. And Goldman is pitching $5.4 billion in debt for a Microsoft-tied data center.

Plus: Banks are in talks to lend $15 billion for an Anthropic data center backed by Google, NYSE parent ICE agreed to buy MarketAxess for ~$6 billion, and how highly successful people sound smart.

“Buy, borrow, die". It’s the strategy the wealthy use to access capital. You can now do it with Stelrix. Join the waitlist today.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

AI Poster Boy Gets Sacrificed

Citadel bought the bulk of Leopold Aschenbrenner's public stock portfolio on Thursday after margin calls from his lenders left the high-flying AI hedge fund scrambling for cash. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, two of Situational Awareness's prime brokers, were involved in the negotiations. Millennium submitted a competing bid, and at least three multibillion-dollar funds held talks over the 24 hours before the deal closed.

Citadel took only the slice financed with borrowed money; Situational kept the portion funded with client capital. Situational also keeps its private investments, including a ~$5bn Anthropic stake, and is expected to carry on as a private investment firm.

Aschenbrenner was running the public book with borrowed money to amplify the bets (reportedly 4x), and leverage cuts in a straight line: the more of the position that belongs to the lender, the smaller the drawdown needed to wipe out your own equity in the trade. When the underlying positions fell hard through July, the prime brokers issued margin calls demanding more collateral.

Aschenbrenner had already tried everything else first: a July 24 letter inviting existing investors to add capital, talks with lenders, and conversations with smaller investors about selling pieces of the portfolio directly. That letter pointed to August 1 as the next window for fresh money. It never came in time. Overnight Wednesday he cut off the smaller buyers and pivoted to getting one large deal done to speed up the process and limit the losses.

The fall is almost as insane as the rise. Aschenbrenner launched the fund in 2024 in his early twenties with a few hundred million dollars and no professional trading background. It grew past $20 billion in ~2 years, with a staff of eight, four of them investment professionals. It was up 439% in the first half of this year.

The strategy that built all of that was going long the AI buildout: memory chips (SK Hynix, Sandisk), power (Bloom Energy), and AI cloud capacity (Nebius). That trade worked spectacularly on the way up. Run with leverage, it worked just as violently on the way down when investors soured on AI capex and higher borrowing costs and every name in the book fell at once.

Citadel is the more interesting character in this story than it might first appear. This is exactly the kind of trade Griffin's firm is built for; enormous liquidity, sophisticated risk systems, and the patience to simply wait until someone else becomes a forced seller. Citadel didn't have a special insight into AI infrastructure stocks. It had cash on hand at the exact moment someone else didn't. 

Takeaway: Aschenbrenner still owns part of Anthropic (and is getting married to its chief of staff this weekend), still runs a roughly $10 billion firm, and could still end up looking right if the AI buildout plays out the way his original thesis argued. But the public portfolio that made him famous is gone, sold at the bottom to the guy with more cash and less leverage.

The lesson here isn't really about AI being a bad bet; it's about what happens to a great thesis when it's run at 4x leverage. Being right eventually doesn't matter if you don't survive long enough to see it, and Ken Griffin just made sure he gets to own the recovery instead.

PRESENTED BY STELRIX

How the Rich Don’t Pay Capital Gains Tax

The wealthy don’t just make money differently, they access it differently. Instead of selling appreciating assets and triggering capital gains taxes, many borrow against their portfolios to unlock liquidity while their investments continue compounding in the background. This strategy, often called “buy, borrow, die,” allows investors to use stocks, ETFs, or other assets as collateral for low interest credit without creating a taxable sale event. The advantage is not only tax deferral, but also maintaining ownership, preserving long term market exposure, and keeping compounding intact while still accessing cash when needed. What was once a strategy reserved for ultra high net worth private banking clients is now becoming increasingly accessible through modern investment backed credit platforms, like Stelrix.

Explore Stelrix’s Instagram for luxury and finance news and sign-up for their waitlist today.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• US economy slowed to 1.5% growth rate in Q2; June core inflation at 3.3% (CNBC)

• Jersey Mike's stock falls 6% in public market debut after pricing shares at $23  (CNBC)

• KKR earnings hit record with best-ever quarter for asset sales (BB)

• Microsoft's $41 billion AI bet just cleared a major test (Yahoo Finance)

• Amazon posts record Q2 revenue of $200.6 billion, with AWS growth of 37% beating expectations (CNBC)

• Goldman pitches $5.4 billion debt for Microsoft-tied data center (BB)

• Banks in talks to lend $15 billion for Anthropic data center backed by Google (WSJ)

• NYSE parent ICE agrees to buy MarketAxess for about $6 billion (BB)

• Oracle gains after expanding Google Gemini AI partnership (BB)

• Casey Wasserman's talent agency to buy out his stake using private equity financing (WSJ)

• OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar tells employees ARR in July topped all of Q2 (CNBC)

• The rise of luxury NYC gyms where recovery is the main event (NY Post)

• Meta’s free cash flow stinks (Axios)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Stocks surged after Wednesday's sell-off; the Nasdaq rose over 2.7% and the S&P 500 about 1.7%, led by technology, up over 5%.

• WTI crude dipped back below $84 and bond yields eased modestly across the curve.

Earnings Season

• Q2 GDP growth slowed to 1.5% annualized, below the 2.0% forecast, while personal consumption rose 3.2%, above forecasts.

• Core PCE inflation came in at 3.3%, still well above the Fed's 2.0% target.

• The Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% with three dissents; September is seen as a live meeting for a hike.

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Sandisk ($SNDK) +26% after Situational Awareness fell, Morgan Stanley reiterated a bullish stance citing NAND shortages and forecasting a 25%+ price increase.

• (+) Microsoft ($MSFT) +16% after the company crushed earnings, with Azure growth of 43% hitting $100B in annual revenue.

• (–) Carvana ($CVNA) -7% after issuing a full-year adjusted EBITDA forecast below Street expectations, with a decline in sales.

Prediction Markets

• Oil prices have surged recently. Chevron and ExxonMobil have earnings calls today as well.

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Nscale agreed to acquire Anyscale, an AI app development platform, for a reported $1.65 billion

• Commonwealth Fusion Systems, a nuclear fusion startup, raised $1 billion

• Procore Technologies agreed to acquire DroneDeploy, a robotics and visual intelligence platform, for $845 million

• Johnson & Johnson is investing $785 million into Sail Biomedicines, a CAR-T cell therapy developer

• Antora Energy, an energy storage company, raised $550 million

• K2 Space, a satellite platform, raised $500 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Growth Capital Playbook

Description:
A practical guide from Rick Ford on navigating one of the most important decisions a founder can make: bringing in growth capital. Drawing on more than four decades of experience as an entrepreneur, investor, and CEO, Ford explains how to determine whether outside capital is the right move, identify partners who align with your vision, negotiate deals that preserve long-term value, and transition from founder-operator to strategic leader. The book emphasizes sustainable growth, strong partnerships, and building enduring businesses rather than chasing the highest valuation.

Book Length: 176 pages
Release Date: June 23, 2026

Ideal For:
Founders, CEOs, entrepreneurs, investors, and business owners considering private equity, growth capital, or scaling a founder-led company.

The best capital doesn't just fund your growth, it strengthens your vision, your leadership, and your company's future.

DAILY VISUAL

U.S. Economy Grows 1.5% in Q2

PRESENTED BY MOSAIC

Bain: "PE Is Sitting on 32,000 Unsold Companies"

Bain's new Global PE Report put out a huge number: private equity is holding 32,000 unsold companies worth $3.8 trillion. After years of waiting, the exit window appears to be opening. 

Medline's listing was the largest PE-backed IPO in history, corporate buyers are back, and Bain's survey of GPs indicates a belief in that momentum carrying through 2026. But buyers are still selective, and the deals getting done are the ones where the seller can back up the price.

PE firms are getting exit-ready in Mosaic, where a new Football Field tab adds a DCF, public comps, and precedent transactions to any completed LBO in one click, and the redesigned Deals View keeps models, metrics, and documents in one place for the whole team.

See why firms are turning to Mosaic for modeling.

DAILY ACUMEN

Halo Effect

One positive trait about a person, a company, or an idea quietly convinces the brain that everything else about it must be good too. The charismatic founder gets the benefit of the doubt on strategy. The polished pitch deck gets the benefit of the doubt on the underlying numbers. A single strong signal blurs the rest of the picture it has nothing to do with.

This is why confident presenters raise more money than sound businesses, and why a strong manner in a meeting can outperform a stronger memo delivered awkwardly. The brain does not evaluate traits independently. It lets one visible strength quietly contaminate every invisible unknown sitting next to it.

The discipline is forcing the traits apart on purpose. Rate the business without letting the founder's charm bleed into the score. Rate the term sheet without letting the firm's name do the underwriting for you. Impressive in one dimension does not mean sound in all of them.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• Build unique workflows for your firm*

• How highly successful people sound smart

• Why the key to productivity is pacing yourself

• 9 types of procrastinators 

• How to get more from your runs

• 3 distinct types of liars in romantic relationships

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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