Good Morning! Netflix pulled the plug on its deal for Warner Bros, clearing the path for Paramount’s $111 billion takeover. The biggest winner may be the options trader who spent $14 million betting the breakup would be a win for Netflix.

Mortgage rates dipped below 6% for the first time in more than three years. Nvidia beat on earnings but still fell 5% as it failed to meet Wall Street’s sky-high expectations. And CoreWeave topped revenue forecasts, with its backlog swelling to nearly $67 billion.

Plus: The Big Short’s Danny Moses says private credit’s retail push feels like 2008, FS KKR cuts its dividend as bad loans rise, and how to stay active even with a desk job.

Each new GPT update shows exponential improvement in daily finance tasks. Get ahead of the updates and try Endex today.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

AI Layoff Trade Has Entered the Chat

It’s natural to worry about just how long you have before AI tools like Claude come for your job. But it’s looking like, over at fintech company Block, that time might be now. 

Jack Dorsey’s payments company is laying off 4,000+ employees, nearly half of its workforce, and replacing them in part with the company’s own AI tool called Goose. And, on the news, the stock ripped 24% in after-hours trading. 

Block’s CFO Amrita Ahuja framed the layoffs as letting Block “move faster with smaller, highly talented teams using AI to automate more work.” And Dorsey even argued most companies will reach the same conclusion within a year, and he’d rather do it “honestly” now than drag morale through multiple rounds of cuts. 

And the surprising part is Block didn’t even need a rescue headline. The layoffs came alongside Q4 results that were basically in-line on adjusted EPS ($0.65 on $6.25B revenue) and a bullish outlook: Block guided to $3.66 in adjusted EPS for the full year versus Street expectations around $3.22.

Dorsey is betting he’s leading the charge for the new fintech playbook in the AI era. For years, payments companies sold growth, network effects, and “product velocity.” Now the pitch is efficiency as a feature, and software eating internal workflows, so you can run a big revenue engine with a smaller payroll.

And because Dorsey is a cult-hero operator in fintech circles, the signal matters beyond Block. If he’s saying “AI replaces headcount” in a shareholder letter, a lot of CEOs are going to feel compelled to do the same.

Takeaway: Block didn’t just announce layoffs; it announced a new social contract between tech and markets: prove you can automate work, and your stock gets rewarded. The brutal irony is that the more investors fear AI will automate jobs, the more they reward the companies that actually do it first.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Netflix declines to match Paramount Skydance bid for Warner Bros (CNBC)

• Trader bets $14 million that losing Warner bid would be win for Netflix (BB)

• Mortgage rates fall below 6% for first time in over 3 years (YF)

• Nvidia's blowout earnings report disappoints Wall Street as stock sinks 5% (CNBC)

• CoreWeave beats revenue projections as backlog swells to nearly $67 billion (CNBC)

• Big Short’s Moses says private credit retail push echoes 2008 (BB)

• FS KKR private credit fund cuts dividend amid rise in bad loans (BB)

• Green shoots in the private equity winter? (FT)

• Trump pushed for lower gas prices and got them, the oil industry is paying the price (YF)

• Have we seen peak pricing power for Nvidia chips? (CNBC)

• The global M&A boom is rolling into 2026 as AI sparks deal frenzy (CNBC)

• Janus Henderson is in the middle of a bidding war (Axios)

• Wall Street says Japan yield curve flattening has gone too far (BB)

• Junior staff have an edge in AI era, EY leaders say (LI)

• Blackstone private credit fund markets 2029 bond after software loan stress (BB)

• Private credit’s great divide: imminent crisis or ‘no big deal’ (YF)

• Blackstone private debt fund sees more stress in software asset (BB)

• The remote-work dream isn’t dead, but it’s slipping away (WSJ)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• U.S. equities edged lower despite strong NVIDIA earnings results, led by a pullback in technology

• Investors appeared to question the durability of elevated AI-related capital spending

• Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year at 4.01%

• Asia closed mixed; Europe was little changed

• WTI crude was roughly flat, as rising U.S. inventories offset ongoing U.S.–Iran tensions

Reported Earnings

• NVIDIA beat expectations and raised Q1 revenue guidance

• With ~95% of S&P 500 companies reported, 75% have beaten estimates

• Average upside surprise stands at 7.3%

• Q4 earnings growth now tracking ~11.9%, up from 7.2% at quarter-end

• All 11 sectors on pace for earnings growth, led by technology (+30%)

• 2026 EPS growth expected near ~14%

• With valuations elevated, continued earnings acceleration remains critical for further upside

Economic Data Highlights

• Initial jobless claims rose modestly to 212K, in line with expectations

• Continuing claims dipped to 1.83M

• Job openings remain at 6.5M, versus 7.4M unemployed

• Unemployment rate holds at 4.3%, signaling a stabilizing labor market

• PCE inflation currently 2.9%, keeping the Fed patient

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Krispy Kreme ($DNUT) +28% after the donut chain posted a Q4 earnings beat; strong 2026 outlook.

• (+) Penn Entertainment ($PENN) +17% because the gambling company announced better-than-expected earnings.

• (–) Nvidia ($NVDA) -5% after investors were disappointed with earnings.

Prediction Markets

• There’s nearly a 50% chance that 3 billionaires leave NYC this year.

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Shine Technologies, a nuclear fusion startup, raised $240 million

• Allica Bank, a British digital business bank, raised $155 million 

• Basis, an agent platform for accountants, raised $100 million

• Neara, a provider of digital twin modeling software for infrastructure operators, raised $90 million

• Adaption Labs, a developer of adaptive AI systems, raised $50 million

• Poetiq, a developer of an AI meta-system, raised $45.8 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

The Coming Storm

Description: A sweeping and deeply informed examination of global power dynamics from one of the world’s leading historians of international relations. Westad traces the forces that have historically driven major conflicts, from ideological clashes to economic rivalry and shifting technological advantage. By examining past power transitions and geopolitical miscalculations, he offers clear warnings about the fragile balance shaping today’s world.

Book Length: 256 pages
Release Date: March 3, 2026

Ideal For: Historians, geopolitical analysts, policymakers, investors, and anyone seeking historical perspective on rising global tensions.

“The greatest storms are rarely sudden. They gather slowly, in patterns history has shown us before.”

DAILY VISUAL

Longest SOTU Speech

PRESENTED BY MOSAIC

M&A Term of the Day: Sources and Uses

Every major transaction answers two questions: What are you buying, and how are you paying for it? The Sources and Uses table lays out both sides in one clean schedule.

The "Uses" side lists what you're paying for: purchase price, transaction fees, and financing costs. The "Sources" side shows where the capital comes from, ranked by seniority. Senior debt sits at the top, followed by junior debt, mezzanine debt, preferred equity, and common equity at the bottom.

Common equity serves as the "plug," automatically solving to make both sides balance. In LBOs, this equity often splits between sponsor funds, management rollovers, and seller stakes.

If you want your LBO modeling made simpler, Mosaic automates the entire Sources and Uses build and handles complex multi-shareholder structures so you can model faster.

Try Mosaic’s LBO modeling platform today.

DAILY ACUMEN

Systems Thinking

Everyone is hunting for the employee who knows the latest AI platform. But the platform you're hiring for today will be obsolete in eighteen months.

The person who deeply understands how work actually flows, where the bottlenecks live, and how to redesign entire processes from scratch? That person compounds in value regardless of what tool comes next.

The rarest skill in the AI era isn't technical fluency. It's systems thinking. The ability to look at how something gets done, question every assumption baked into it, and reimagine it entirely.

Gartner found that business units redesigning their processes with AI are twice as likely to hit revenue goals compared to those just optimizing individual tasks. Stop hiring for the tool. Start hiring for the mind that knows what to do with any tool.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• 3 science-backed ways to measure integrity

• How to translate strategy into daily execution

• What I learnt from my MBA

• In a world built for sitting, how to stay active 

• Why working from home still isn’t going away

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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