Good Morning! Stocks rallied after Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran. Investors who only bought the S&P 500 on the nine days before each TACO moment this term would be up 52%, vs. 12% for buy-and-hold. Perplexity posted 50% revenue growth last quarter, and hedge funds are covering shorts at the fastest pace since 2020.

Meta unveiled a new AI model as it tries to catch up to Google and OpenAI. Investors are floating a Tesla–SpaceX merger. And blue-collar job growth has plateaued, narrowing paths for younger workers.

Plus: Why even U.S.-made chips still make a round trip to Taiwan, Avis short sellers are getting squeezed after a 150% rally, and the hidden trap of being a morning person.

Stay ahead of the latest modeling trends in AI. Get access to Endex here.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

AI Coming for Research Analysts

Anthony Pompliano, the crypto entrepreneur, professional internet bull, and man who has never met a hype cycle he didn’t like, is launching an AI-generated stock research business. 

The pitch is simple: instead of paying a bullpen of analysts to grind through earnings calls and macro noise, ProCap Financial wants a fleet of AI agents to do it faster, cheaper, and at scale. Think reports like “3 Stocks That Win From Both Tariff Refunds and the Iran Oil Shock” cranked out by bots instead of some associate running on Red Bull and existential dread. 

The service, ProCap Insights, will sell AI-written research to individual investors for $2,500 a year. The whole thing was built in two weeks, cost a few thousand dollars, and had an employee overseeing the project. Wall Street used to need an army for this, but now apparently it needs an API key and an idea.

The notes will cover single stocks, broad themes, and macro setups, but stop short of direct buy or sell calls, which is either a principled line or a very careful legal decision (probably the latter).

The system can produce hundreds of reports a day, though ProCap plans to release just a handful daily so subscribers don’t drown in machine-generated market takes.

Pompliano also recently acquired CFO Silvia, an AI finance tool that plugs into bank and brokerage accounts and acts as a virtual CFO for retail investors, which could be the beginning of every retail investor receiving the same AI-generated “edge” simultaneously.

The bigger question is whether ProCap Insight actually threatens Wall Street research. For decades, analysts have shaped narratives, stamped stocks with ratings, and coined buzzwords that ricochet across CNBC chyrons and hedge fund decks. They have also been spectacularly wrong.

Enron had bullish coverage right up until the floor gave out. So the issue is not whether human research is flawless. It is whether AI can become credible enough, fast enough, and cheap enough to make the existing model look bloated. The low- to mid-tier research grind comes down to speed, formatting, and confidence wrapped around public information, and those notes look increasingly automatable. The top analysts who actually move markets are a different conversation.

Takeaway: Wall Street loves to talk about disruption until it shows up and starts taking jobs. This time it might show up as a stock report written in ten seconds by a bot, sold for $2,500 a year, and read by the same retail investors the old research was never meant for anyway. Pompliano has been early and wrong before. He has also been early and right. The direction here feels hard to argue with even if the messenger makes some people uncomfortable. The robots are not outthinking the best analysts on the Street yet. But they are absolutely coming for the PDFs.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

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AI Performance in Finance Soars from 59% to 87.3% in 4 Months

OpenAI’s Project Mercury appears to be paying off. GPT-5.4 released and scored 87.3% on junior investment banking tasks.

Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI are each showing distinct strengths across Excel and PowerPoint workflows. New models are landing faster than firms can evaluate them.

As CEOs like Jamie Dimon warn that AI productivity gains will reshape finance teams, firms are starting to rethink how they deploy these tools.

Many teams have adopted Endex for complex modeling in Excel. Their custom deployments are compressing hours of analyst work to minutes, using the best-performing foundation model for each workflow.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

• These TACOs are getting stale (WSJ)

• Perplexity ARR tops $450 million after pricing shift (YF)

• Hedge funds are closing stock short bets at fastest pace since 2020 (BB)

• Meta debuts new AI model, attempting to catch Google, OpenAI after spending billions (CNBC)

• SpaceX isn’t even public yet, and investors are already buzzing about a Tesla merger (WSJ)

• Blue collar work has plateaued, narrowing options for young workers (NYT)

• AI’s next bottleneck: Why even the best chips made in the US take a round trip to Taiwan (CNBC)

• Avis short squeeze sends shares up 150% (BB)

• US-Iran ceasefire may bring gas price relief by Friday (Axios)

• Trump threatens 50% tariffs on countries supplying weapons to Iran (CNBC)

• Insurers’ $1 trillion buildup in private credit is leaving regulators in the dust (WSJ)

• AI companies’ new PR problem (WSJ)

• Investors give peace a chance for now (Axios)

• Private equity’s experiment for every worker to own a piece of their company (NPR)

• Coinbase stock hit with analyst downgrade on crypto market’s weak start to 2026 (YF)

• Delta predicts $2 billion fuel hit, CEO cautious on outlook (BB)

• Goldman embraces picks and shovels of AI with more capex ahead (BB)

• Hedge funds make record bets against European stocks (FT)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Stocks rallied sharply on news of a U.S.–Iran ceasefire, driving a broad risk-on move

• Technology led gains, with strong upside across major indexes

• Global equities surged, with notable strength across Asia and Europe

• Bond yields moved lower, reflecting easing inflation and policy concerns

• Oil dropped significantly, while the dollar weakened, signaling a reversal of recent fear-driven trades

Ceasefire Sparks Risk-On Shift

• The agreement marks a meaningful step toward de-escalation, contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz

• Markets are now pricing in a potential normalization of energy flows

• That said, the situation remains headline-sensitive, with progress dependent on negotiations

• If sustained, this could mark a turning point in recent volatility

Energy Relief, But Not Fully Resolved

• Oil’s sharp decline is a positive signal for inflation and growth expectations

• However, prices remain elevated relative to pre-conflict levels

• Full normalization of supply is likely to take time even under a ceasefire

• Markets expect oil to trend lower, but not immediately revert to prior lows

Implications for Policy

• Lower oil reduces immediate pressure on inflation, easing concerns at the margin

• The Fed is still likely to remain cautious, but less constrained than before

• Rate cuts may be delayed, not canceled, with the easing cycle still intact

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Carnival ($CCL) +11% after lower oil prices could boost the cruise line’s profitability.

• (+) Meta ($META) +7% because the technology company launched a new AI model to compete with OpenAI and Google.

• (–) Exxon Mobil ($XOM) -5% after the oil giant saw a 6% production loss due to the Iran War.

Prediction Markets

• Inflation number (CPI YoY) in March gets released tomorrow.

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Sidewinder Therapeutics, a developer of antibody-drug conjugates, raised $137 million

• Life Biosciences, a developer of anti-aging gene therapies, raised $80 million

• MillTech, a British FX hedging cash management platform, raised $60 million​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

• Linx Security, an identity security and governance platform, raised $50 million

• AnswersNow, a virtual therapy platform, raised $40 million

• Linker Vision, a developer of physical AI software, raised $35 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Vibe

Description:
A research-backed exploration of how to build deeper, more meaningful relationships in an increasingly disconnected world, from Adam Grant. The book blends psychology, workplace dynamics, and real-world stories to show how small shifts in behavior can dramatically improve trust, belonging, and influence. It focuses on how connection drives success, not just socially but professionally, and how to intentionally create environments where people feel seen, heard, and valued.

Book Length: 320 pages
Release Date: October 13, 2026

Ideal For:
Leaders, operators, and anyone looking to build stronger relationships, improve influence, and create deeper connections in both personal and professional settings

The quality of your life is shaped by the quality of your connections.

DAILY VISUAL

Anthropic is Mooning

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A Private Bank in Your Wallet

Family offices and private banking clients have accessed capital by borrowing against their assets for generations, using their portfolios as collateral while keeping investments intact and compounding. Traditional securities-backed lines require $100,000 minimums and weeks of underwriting, keeping this approach exclusive to institutional relationships.

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DAILY ACUMEN

Exit First

The best investors decide how they will exit a position before they enter it, not because they know exactly what will happen, but because the version of themselves sitting with a loss is a completely different decision-maker than the version who bought in with conviction. One of them has access to the original thesis. The other one is just trying to stop the bleeding.

This applies well beyond investing. The time to decide what would change your mind is before you are emotionally committed to being right. After that, the goalposts move on their own.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• How to quash your fear of messing up

• Why high-performers burn out

• The hidden trap of being a morning person

• The psychological benefits of cooking

• How to convince others to trust your instincts

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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