Good Morning! Palantir plunged after Big Short investor Michael Burry said Anthropic’s powerful new Mythos model could eat Palantir’s lunch. Ares Management will buy Whitestone REIT in a $1.7 billion deal. And Carlyle’s private credit fund was hit with 15.7% in redemption requests.

A former Blackstone team raised $400 million for sports bets. OpenAI will allocate IPO shares to retail investors as it preps for its debut. And CoreWeave and Meta struck a new $21 billion deal for AI computing.

Plus: Investors sought to pull $20 billion from private credit funds in the first quarter, why young Americans are buying $200 notebooks from a store in Paris, and the psychology behind why canceled meetings are actually good for you.

Blueflame now has agentic content creation to accelerate your deal diligence and presentation. Request a demo today.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

Ackman’s Doomsday Fund

Bill Ackman is in talks to launch a new fund built specifically around “asymmetric” macro bets, trades designed to profit when markets are complacent and then something breaks. The template is his 2020 pandemic trade, where Pershing Square paid $27 million for credit derivatives that appreciated when corporate debt sold off, turning a modest premium into a $2.6 billion windfall as bond markets collapsed.

Ackman wants to bottle that lightning in a dedicated vehicle rather than running those bets through his main fund. The timing is notable after Pershing Square’s flagship is down more than 16% through the end of March, which is either a terrible time to be launching a new product or a very good argument for why you need one.

The new fund’s structure is classic hedge fund discipline applied to a very specific strategy. Most assets would sit in short-term U.S. debt, essentially parked, while a portion gets deployed into large credit and macro bets when Ackman sees the right setup. Think low bleed, massive payoff when the thesis hits.

Ackman has done this before and done it well. Beyond the pandemic trade, he turned a $60 million bet on bankrupt mall operator General Growth Properties in 2009 into roughly $3.6 billion.

The broader context matters here because Ackman is not just running a hedge fund anymore; he is building an empire and preparing to take Pershing Square public. The IPO prospectus hints at launching new permanent capital vehicles to grow the fee base. He has built a major stake in Howard Hughes Holdings as a vehicle for a Berkshire Hathaway-style conglomerate and earlier this week he offered to acquire Universal Music Group in a mostly stock deal valuing the label at roughly €55 billion.

The doomsday fund is one piece of a much larger architecture: Ackman wants to raise $5 to $10 billion in a combined IPO of the Pershing management company and a new U.S. closed-end fund. The asymmetric macro vehicle gives potential public investors a growth story beyond the concentrated long book that’s currently sitting on a 16% loss.

Takeaway: Ackman is one of the most compelling performers in finance when he’s right and one of the most visible when he’s wrong, and he has been both, loudly, multiple times. The asymmetric fund is a smart structural move: isolate the doomsday bets in a dedicated vehicle so they don’t drag the main portfolio and give investors a clean way to get exposure to the macro calls.

Whether you think Ackman is a genius or a showman probably depends on which trade you’re thinking about. The honest answer is he’s been both. The new fund is a bet that the next big one is coming, and that he’ll be on the right side of it.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

PRESENTED BY BLUEFLAME AI

The Deal Content Engine

Introducing agentic content creation in Blueflame AI.

Generate Microsoft Excel sheets, PowerPoint presentations, and Word documents with Blueflame AI’s agentic content creation tools.

Automatically synthesize, structure, and format professional-grade outputs including pitch decks, CIM summaries, and financial models, all in one workflow.

This is AI designed for how deal teams actually work: fast, iterative, and under pressure.

Spend less time polishing outputs and more time on strategic thinking. What will you create first?

Request a demo to see how Blueflame AI accelerates content creation, analysis, and execution across your investment workflow.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Palantir stock plunges after Big Short investor Michael Burry says Anthropic is eating its lunch (YF)

• Ares Management to buy Whitestone REIT in $1.7 billion deal (WSJ)

• Carlyle private credit fund hit with 15.7% in redemption requests (WSJ)

• Blitzer-backed private equity firm raises $400 million for sports bets (BB)

• CoreWeave, Meta strike latest $21 billion deal for AI computing (BB)

• Investors sought to pull $20B from private credit in Q1 (FT)

• Why young Americans are buying $200 notebooks from a store in Paris (CNBC)

• As millions lose weight on GLP-1s, they’re starting to turn to retailers to refresh their wardrobes (CNBC)

• The Strait of Hormuz is not open as Iran controls access after ceasefire, UAE oil CEO says (CNBC)

• Inflation held sticky at 3% as U.S. headed into war with Iran (CNBC)

• Disney planning layoffs under new CEO Josh D’Amaro (CNBC)

• Amazon CEO Jassy defends $200 billion AI spend: “We’re not going to be conservative” (CNBC)

• Family offices see gains after making opportunistic bets on oil (CNBC)

• Goldman Sachs uncovers a troubling pattern behind AI tech job losses (NYP)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Update

• Stocks moved higher as investors continued to track developments around the U.S.–Iran ceasefire

• Consumer discretionary and industrials led gains, signaling improving risk appetite

• Bond yields ticked higher, reflecting ongoing inflation considerations

• Oil rebounded, highlighting continued friction around reopening energy flows

• Dollar weakened, suggesting easing safe-haven demand

Ceasefire Progress Still Uneven

• Markets remain focused on whether the ceasefire can translate into sustained normalization

• Ongoing disputes are keeping energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz constrained

• Oil’s rebound shows the market is not yet convinced the disruption is over

• Forward expectations still point to a temporary shock rather than a lasting supply crisis

Inflation Picture Holding Steady

• The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed continued moderation beneath the surface

• Cooling in services and housing is helping offset pockets of pressure elsewhere

• Core inflation is easing gradually, but still above target

• Higher oil prices are expected to create a short-term bump in inflation

• The Fed is likely to remain patient and data-dependent

Labor Market Check

• Jobless claims moved slightly higher, but trends still point to a stable labor backdrop

• Continued claims declining suggests workers are still finding jobs

• The overall picture remains slower hiring, limited layoffs

• Wage growth should remain supportive, though energy-driven inflation is a risk

Movers & Shakers

• (+) STAAR Surgical ($STAA) +21% after preliminary Q1 net sales exceeded $90M, more than double analyst estimates of $67.2M.

• (+) Brown-Forman ($BF) +13% because the Jack Daniel’s maker was reportedly approached about an acquisition by Sazerac.

• (–) Palantir ($PLTR) -8% after Michael Burry posted on X that Anthropic is “eating Palantir’s lunch,” citing Anthropic’s ARR jump from $9B to $30B; defense premium also eroded on Iran ceasefire news.

Prediction Markets

• CPI for March is announced this morning at 8:25am EDT.

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Ares Management agreed to buy Whitestone REIT for around $1.7 billion

• Ara Partners paid $500 million to acquire Sedron Technologies, which upcycles waste into drinking water and fertilizer

• SiFive, a developer of RISC-V processors for data centers, raised $400 million

• Shepherd, a commercial insurance platform, raised $42 million

• True Footage, a real estate appraisal platform, raised $40 million​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

• Yuzu Health, a third-party administrator platform, raised $35 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Trading is Math

Description:
A systematic, numbers-driven approach to trading from Steve Burns and Holly Burns that strips away emotion and focuses on probability, risk management, and repeatable edge. The book emphasizes that profitable trading is less about prediction and more about math, position sizing, and discipline. It walks through core formulas and frameworks that help traders manage downside, optimize upside, and build consistency across different market environments.

Book Length: 220 pages
Release Date: February 6, 2026

Ideal For:
Traders and investors who want to move from intuition to systems, focusing on risk management, probabilities, and long-term consistency.

Successful trading is not about being right it is about managing risk and letting the math work in your favor.

DAILY VISUAL

Allwoes

PRESENTED BY MOSAIC

How Reliable Are LLMs for Financial Modeling?

AI has transformed Wall Street's language work: summarizing earnings calls, processing CIMs, drafting memos. But financial modeling is a different problem entirely.

LLMs are probabilistic. Run the same model twice, get two different answers. For an expert call summary, that's fine. For an LBO backing a multi-billion dollar decision, that's a structural flaw. A 99% accurate LBO is still a wrong LBO.

What firms need is purpose-built software where the math never varies. That's Mosaic.

Read the full article here.

DAILY ACUMEN

Ask Nothing

The most powerful position you can occupy in any room is wanting nothing from the people in it. Not their approval, not their validation, not their agreement. When you need something from someone, they can feel it, and it changes everything about how they receive you.

This is why the best negotiators go last, the best leaders speak least, and the most magnetic people in any social dynamic are almost always the ones who seem genuinely indifferent to how they're landing. Neediness is not just unattractive. It is a form of weakness that transfers power to whoever you need it from, automatically, without a word being said.

The goal is not to stop caring about people. It is to stop requiring specific responses from them in order to feel okay. That distinction is the entire game.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• The psychology behind why canceled meetings are good for you

• How to build a superteam that keeps getting better

• Decluttering tips for your next trip

• How sleep cleans the brain

• How to turn a bad memory into a good one

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

📣 Partner With Us: Get in front of an audience of over 1 million finance professionals, business leaders, and policy influencers. Submit a partnership inquiry.

📊 Wall Street Comp & Culture Data: Get the most detailed comp, carry, and culture insights across 800+ Wall Street firms. Explore the data.

📈 Grow With Us: Work directly with the Overheard on Wall Street team to scale your finance brand. Schedule your free consult.

🧢 Wall Street Shop: Explore our collection of finance-themed apparel and merchandise. Visit the shop.

📬 Deals Newsletter – Buysiders: A curated roundup of major M&A, private equity, and VC activity. Plus access to private deal flow. Subscribe here.