Good Morning! Jeff Bezos is in talks to raise $100 billion for an AI manufacturing fund. Kalshi raised over $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation, doubling its valuation from just three months ago. And a KKR-backed company is betting on electric trucks despite political headwinds.

The Fed released a long-awaited proposal to adjust post-financial crisis capital requirements. Uber is investing up to $1.25 billion in Rivian to deploy 50,000 robotaxis across 25 cities by 2031. And DoorDash launched a new app that pays people to film themselves doing chores (to train AI models).

Plus: AI coding startup Cursor is planning a new model to rival Anthropic and OpenAI, and 6 simple habits to stay mentally sharp.

Want to stay ahead of the AI finance curve? Get access to Endex here.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

2026’s Big Short

If there's one rule on Wall Street: if there's money on both sides of a boom, the banks will find a way. That's exactly what's happening in private credit.

Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Bank of America are now offering hedge fund clients ways to bet against the $1.8 trillion private credit market. Private credit is nearly impossible to short directly: loans are illiquid, privately held, and marked infrequently.

So the banks built proxies. Goldman assembled baskets ranging from European financials with private credit exposure to BDCs and alt managers. JPMorgan's version covers similar ground. Can't short the loans? Short the listed balance sheets most exposed to them.

Redemption pressure has been building, driven by concerns over heavy concentration in software - a sector being rapidly disrupted by AI. BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, and Cliffwater have already imposed withdrawal limits.

PIMCO’s president Christian Stracke warned this week that single-sector concentration is making investors unwilling to “wait around to see how bad it gets.”

The Big Short parallel writes itself. A market grew fast, got wrapped in reassuring language, became too illiquid to exit cleanly, and now the challenge is just figuring out how to go short.

Takeaway: Goldman, JPMorgan, and BofA aren't making a moral call on private credit. they're monetizing the anxiety around it. For years they made money helping it grow. Now they're making money helping bet against it. Private credit has entered a new era: no longer just something to own, but something sophisticated investors increasingly want to short.

PRESENTED BY ENDEX

New AI Model Releases - What Does It Mean for Finance?

OpenAI’s Project Mercury appears to be paying off. GPT-5.4 released and scored 87.3% on junior investment banking tasks (up from 68.4% in GPT-5.2).

Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI's foundation models are demonstrating unique capabilities across Excel and PowerPoint. New models are landing faster than firms can evaluate them - let alone integrate them.

Major Wall Street firms are rapidly adopting Endex for analyst tasks, as CEOs like Jamie Dimon warn that AI productivity gains will reshape finance teams and eliminate certain roles over the coming years.

Endex is built model agnostic by design. Analysts are able to capitalize on model breakthroughs across their suite of tools.

Request access to Endex today.

HEADLINES

Top Reads

• Kalshi raises $1 billion in new funding at $22 billion valuation (BB)

• Jeff Bezos aims to raise $100 billion to buy, revamp manufacturing firms with AI (WSJ)

• KKR-backed Zenobe acquires California electric fleet manager despite Trump's attacks (BB)

• Federal Reserve proposes lowering capital requirements for banks (YF)

• Uber to invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian for robotaxi push (Axios)

• DoorDash launches a new 'Tasks' app that pays couriers to submit videos to train AI (TC)

• AI coding startup Cursor plans new model to rival Anthropic, OpenAI (BB)

• Brent oil jumps as major energy assets are targeted in Mideast (YF)

• Oil prices hold above $110 as Israel, Iran target major energy infrastructure throughout Gulf (YF)

• MTA seeks bids to replace one-third of NYC subway cars in record order (NYT)

• Gold and silver sell off as inflation fears grip global markets (CNBC)

• Real estate could be the big winner in the private credit exodus (CNBC)

• OpenClaw demand in China is driving up the price of secondhand MacBooks (CNBC)

• Accenture expects work with biggest AI partners to more than double (BB)

• Goldman Sachs AM seeks to raise $10 billion private credit fund (BB)

• JPMorgan, Goldman offer hedge funds way to short private credit (BB)

• McKinsey & Co. says M&A has been there, done that (BB)

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Market Movement

• U.S. equities declined, led by weakness in materials and consumer discretionary

• International markets were also lower, with both Asia and Europe down

• WTI crude pulled back from recent highs after signs of potential progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz

• Comments from Israel’s leadership supporting U.S. efforts helped ease some near-term supply fears

• Despite volatility, broader market sentiment remains tied to energy supply developments

Labor Market Signals

• Initial jobless claims fell to 205,000, below expectations of 215,000

• Continuing claims rose modestly to 1.86 million, indicating slightly longer job searches

• Overall, data points to a stable labor market with:

  • Slower hiring

  • Limited layoffs

• Wage growth is likely still outpacing inflation, though higher energy prices could create short-term pressure on real incomes

Rates and Inflation Expectations

• Treasury yields edged lower, with the 10-year near 4.26%

• However, the broader trend remains upward in recent weeks

• Inflation expectations have been a key driver:

  • 10-year breakevens rose ~15 bps this month to ~2.4%

• Markets are increasingly pricing a delayed Fed easing cycle

  • First cut now expected around September 2027, followed by another later in the year

• This path is slower than the Fed’s latest projections

Movers & Shakers

• (+) Signet Jewelers ($SIG) +14% after the jewelry retailer beat Q4 earnings estimates, reporting adjusted EPS of $6.25 above expectations, and issued a full-year outlook that met Wall Street’s projections.

• (+) Rivian ($RIVN) +4% because Uber announced it will invest up to $1.25 billion in the EV maker as part of a partnership to deploy autonomous vehicles starting in 2028.

• (–) Alibaba ($BABA) -7% after the Chinese tech giant missed Q3 earnings estimates, reporting EPS of $6.96 against expectations of $11.88, with revenue also coming in below forecasts.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Prediction Markets

• March Madness Week: Round of 16 qualifiers

• Trade on real-world events with Kalshi. Use code OWS to get a $10 bonus when you trade $10.

Private Dealmaking

• Cloaked, a consumer-focused privacy platform, raised $375 million

• Latent Health, a startup automating pharmacy workflows, raised $80 million

• Crossbow Therapeutics, a developer of cancer immunotherapies, raised $77 million

• Axiamatic, a digital transformation startup, raised $54 million

• Third Arc Bio, a biotechnology company developing cancer therapies, raised $52 million

• Isembard, a manufacturing startup focused on aerospace, defense, and robotics, raised $50 million

For more PE, VC & M&A deals, subscribe to our Buysiders newsletter.

BOOK OF THE DAY

Pattern Breakers

Description: A venture capital insider’s guide to what separates truly transformative startups from the rest. Maples Jr. and Ziebelman argue that the biggest outcomes come from founders who do not just execute better, but who challenge fundamental assumptions and create new categories. Drawing on decades of experience backing companies like Twitter and Lyft, they outline how pattern breakers identify non obvious opportunities, take contrarian bets, and reshape markets rather than compete within them.

Book Length: 320 pages
Release Date: July 9, 2024

Ideal For: Founders, investors, operators, and anyone interested in how breakthrough companies are built and why a few create outsized impact.

The most valuable companies do not win by playing the existing game better. They win by changing the game entirely.

DAILY VISUAL

Apple Maps Closing the Gap

PRESENTED BY THE DAILY UPSIDE

Choose Clarity Over Clickbait

Take one glance at the headlines and it feels pretty scary out there. “AI Replacing Half the Workforce.” “The Next Recession Is Already Here (Allegedly).” Exhausting, honestly.

The Daily Upside is the antidote; calm, collected insights without the fear mongering.

Some call it the closest thing to an MBA from Cambridge. Think of it as a sidekick for navigating business and investing. 1M subscribers already do. Try it for free.

DAILY ACUMEN

Optimized

There is a certain type of highly productive person who has optimized their life so thoroughly that there is no longer any room in it for the unplanned, the inefficient, or the spontaneous. Every hour accounted for. Every output measured. Every relationship evaluated for ROI.

What gets squeezed out first is usually the stuff that is hardest to defend on a spreadsheet: wandering conversations, idle afternoons, experiences that go nowhere in particular. These are also, reliably, the things people say mattered most when they look back.

Efficiency is a useful servant and a terrible architect.

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

• 6 simple habits to stay mentally sharp

• Why Macbook Neo is going to change everything

• How to avoid injuries as you age

• Why everybody loves to hate Dubai

• Why VO2 max is the most important metric

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

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