🍋 2023's Big Short

The Big Short investor's $1.6 billion bet against U.S. stocks, plus Fitch wants to downgrade JPMorgan, and Warren Buffett's latest bullish bet.

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“Tell me the difference between stupid and illegal and I’ll have my wife’s brother arrested.” — The Big Short

Good Morning! You might be wondering what the Fitch - but the rating agency says they’re thinking about downgrading dozens of America’s top banks, including JPMorgan Chase. Making matters worse, American businesses are starting to get rocked by the China slowdown, and even one of the largest cannabis ETFs closed - investors are losing interest in the industry.

Business travel is rebounding - it’s projected to reach 75-85% of pre-pandemic levels this year, and the sector could top $1.8 trillion by 2027. And streaming prices have surged an average of 25% year-over-year as companies scramble to turn a profit.

Apollo pulled out of Yellow’s bankruptcy financing plan, but the rest of Wall Street is still brawling over a piece of it. And even though homebuilder sentiment is plummeting as rates surge, Warren Buffett isn’t fazed - he just made a big bet on homebuilder stocks.

SQUEEZ OF THE DAY

2023's Big Short

You might have thought the stock market was riding high and narrowly avoiding a soft landing. But Michael Burry, the legendary investor behind the "Big Short," has something to say about that.

Burry just made a $1.6 billion bet shorting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, wagering 90% of his portfolio on a market reversal.

Burry claims credit for predicting previous downturns. But, to be fair, he’s gotten burned before. In a cryptic January tweet, he commanded attention with a single word: "Sell." But just as skeptics began to question, Burry pivoted by March's end, admitting, "I was wrong to say sell."

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have boasted remarkable gains of nearly 16% and 38% on the year, respectively. And while Burry's been wrong before, other investors don’t see much upside for the rest of 2023.

Takeaway: You might know Burry from his uncanny foresight in predicting the cataclysmic housing market crash of 2008. With a bold move that sent shockwaves through Wall Street, Burry has plunged over $1.6 billion into a high-stakes bet, positioning himself for a seismic meltdown.

CAPITAL PULSE

Markets Rundown

Stocks closed lower over investor’s China fears.

Movers & Shakers

  • (+) Lyft ($LYFT) +4% after the rideshare company is expanding its ad business.

  • (–) PayPal ($PYPL) -6% after naming a new CEO.

  • (–) Discover Financial ($DFS) -9% after its CEO resigned during a regulatory review.

Private Dealmaking

  • Thermo Fisher Scientific completed its $913 million purchase of biopharma data provider CorEvitas

  • Apax Partners bought Bazooka Candy Brands, a bubblegum maker, for $700 million

  • Weights & Biases, a machine learning ops platform, raised $50 million

  • Virtualitics, a data analytics platform, raised $37 million

  • Trove, a resale tech company, raised $30 million

  • Boston Micro Fabrication, a Chinese 3D printing company, raised $24 million

    Get access to private deal flow here.

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HEADLINES

Top Reads

  • Why cooling inflation may be good news for tech stocks (YF)

  • Why we’re not out of the woods as banks pull back on lending (Axios)

  • Apollo to lend over $4B to struggling buyout firms (BB)

  • China wants to keep Russia’s economy in a ‘Goldilocks’ state (CNBC)

  • Stock market drop could chill new IPOs (Axios)

  • In Manhattan, real estate battles can be a game of inches (WSJ)

  • Retail sales jumped in July (YF)

  • Steve Schwarzman is pushing Blackstone Growth to get its act together (BB)

  • Share of companies nearshoring supply chain tripled this year (Axios)

  • How prosperous is America? Ask UPS drivers (BB)

BOOK OF THE DAY

The Forever Dog

Like their human counterparts, dogs have been getting sicker and dying prematurely over the past few decades. Why? Scientists are beginning to understand that the chronic diseases afflicting humans—cancer, obesity, diabetes, organ degeneration, and autoimmune disorders—also beset canines.

As a result, our beloved companions are vexed with preventable health problems throughout much of their lives and suffer shorter life spans. Because our pets can’t make health and lifestyle decisions for themselves, it’s up to pet parents to make smart, science-backed choices for lasting vitality and health.

The Forever Dog gives us the practical, proven tools to protect our loyal four-legged companions. Rodney Habib and Karen Becker, DVM, globetrotted (pre-pandemic) to galvanize the best wisdom from top geneticists, microbiologists, and longevity researchers; they also interviewed people whose dogs have lived into their 20s and even 30s.

The result is this unprecedented and comprehensive guide, filled with surprising information, invaluable advice, and inspiring stories about dogs and the people who love them.

“A must-read guide…to keep tails wagging for as long as possible.”

ENLIGHTENMENT

Short Squeez Picks

  • 4 daily habits of truly happy people

  • 7 books every CEO should read

  • Body language cues that lead to instant likability

  • How your money mindset could be leading to burnout

  • How to start a conversation according to psychologists

DAILY VISUAL

Share of Companies Nearshoring Their Supply Chains Tripled This Year

Share of supply chain leaders who say their company took actions to nearshore production

Source: Axios

DAILY ACUMEN

No Worries

Mark Twain, the witty guy he was, said, “I am an old man and have known a great many troubles, but most of them never happened.” Pretty insightful, huh?

A study from Cornell University dropped a truth bomb: 85% of what people worried about never actually happened. That’s a whole lot of stress for nothing. But, here’s the silver lining: of the worries that did come true, 79% weren't nearly as bad as folks feared. They handled those issues way better than expected!

Let’s crunch some numbers: ((100%-85%) x (100%-79%)) = 3%. That means only 3% of our worries are as dreadful as we imagine. Tiny, right?

Twain put it perfectly: worrying is like paying a debt you don’t owe. So, what say we stop making payments on imaginary debts? Life’s too short, and we’ve got better things to do with our time and energy.

If this hit home for you, pass it along to a friend. We could all use a little less worry and a lot more living, don’t you think? Cheers to focusing on the real stuff 🥂

MEME-A-PALOOZA

Memes of the Day

 

 

 

 

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