- Short Squeez
- Posts
- 🍋 2023's Big Short
🍋 2023's Big Short
The Big Short investor's $1.6 billion bet against U.S. stocks, plus Fitch wants to downgrade JPMorgan, and Warren Buffett's latest bullish bet.
Together With
Today’s edition is brought to you by Wellcore, who’ve leveraged 120+ studies to create a hormone program enhancing strength, fat loss, bone density, libido, and mood. Use code HELLOVIP for their kit.
“Tell me the difference between stupid and illegal and I’ll have my wife’s brother arrested.” — The Big Short
Good Morning! You might be wondering what the Fitch - but the rating agency says they’re thinking about downgrading dozens of America’s top banks, including JPMorgan Chase. Making matters worse, American businesses are starting to get rocked by the China slowdown, and even one of the largest cannabis ETFs closed - investors are losing interest in the industry.
Business travel is rebounding - it’s projected to reach 75-85% of pre-pandemic levels this year, and the sector could top $1.8 trillion by 2027. And streaming prices have surged an average of 25% year-over-year as companies scramble to turn a profit.
Apollo pulled out of Yellow’s bankruptcy financing plan, but the rest of Wall Street is still brawling over a piece of it. And even though homebuilder sentiment is plummeting as rates surge, Warren Buffett isn’t fazed - he just made a big bet on homebuilder stocks.
SQUEEZ OF THE DAY
2023's Big Short
You might have thought the stock market was riding high and narrowly avoiding a soft landing. But Michael Burry, the legendary investor behind the "Big Short," has something to say about that.
Burry just made a $1.6 billion bet shorting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, wagering 90% of his portfolio on a market reversal.
Burry claims credit for predicting previous downturns. But, to be fair, he’s gotten burned before. In a cryptic January tweet, he commanded attention with a single word: "Sell." But just as skeptics began to question, Burry pivoted by March's end, admitting, "I was wrong to say sell."
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have boasted remarkable gains of nearly 16% and 38% on the year, respectively. And while Burry's been wrong before, other investors don’t see much upside for the rest of 2023.
Takeaway: You might know Burry from his uncanny foresight in predicting the cataclysmic housing market crash of 2008. With a bold move that sent shockwaves through Wall Street, Burry has plunged over $1.6 billion into a high-stakes bet, positioning himself for a seismic meltdown.
CAPITAL PULSE
Markets Rundown
Stocks closed lower over investor’s China fears.
Movers & Shakers
(+) Lyft ($LYFT) +4% after the rideshare company is expanding its ad business.
(–) PayPal ($PYPL) -6% after naming a new CEO.
(–) Discover Financial ($DFS) -9% after its CEO resigned during a regulatory review.
Private Dealmaking
Thermo Fisher Scientific completed its $913 million purchase of biopharma data provider CorEvitas
Apax Partners bought Bazooka Candy Brands, a bubblegum maker, for $700 million
Weights & Biases, a machine learning ops platform, raised $50 million
Virtualitics, a data analytics platform, raised $37 million
Trove, a resale tech company, raised $30 million
Boston Micro Fabrication, a Chinese 3D printing company, raised $24 million
Get access to private deal flow here.
SPONSORED BY WELLCORE
Doctors Say Do This One Thing to Live a Better Life
Stretching. Taking the stairs. Eating less pizza. All good habits. But these alone will not change your life. What will? Hormone optimization. Here’s why: As we age, our testosterone levels decline big time. That’s just a fact. 40% of men over 40 suffer from low testosterone, as do 20% of men who are ages 25-40.
Low testosterone can wreck our emotional, mental, and physical health. But we haven’t gotten to the crazy part. 95% of men with low testosterone go untreated. 95%!
Enter Wellcore. They leveraged over 120 scientific studies to create The Best Hormone Optimization Program on the Planet. 100% at home and 100% painless.
The science-backed hormone optimization program can improve strength, fat loss, bone density, libido, blood pressure and mood; helping you to combat the aging process.
Right now, they are treating our readers like VIPs. Get started by ordering the kit for just $99 today ($150 off) using code HELLOVIP.
HEADLINES
Top Reads
Why cooling inflation may be good news for tech stocks (YF)
Why we’re not out of the woods as banks pull back on lending (Axios)
Apollo to lend over $4B to struggling buyout firms (BB)
China wants to keep Russia’s economy in a ‘Goldilocks’ state (CNBC)
Stock market drop could chill new IPOs (Axios)
In Manhattan, real estate battles can be a game of inches (WSJ)
Retail sales jumped in July (YF)
Steve Schwarzman is pushing Blackstone Growth to get its act together (BB)
Share of companies nearshoring supply chain tripled this year (Axios)
How prosperous is America? Ask UPS drivers (BB)
BOOK OF THE DAY
The Forever Dog
Like their human counterparts, dogs have been getting sicker and dying prematurely over the past few decades. Why? Scientists are beginning to understand that the chronic diseases afflicting humans—cancer, obesity, diabetes, organ degeneration, and autoimmune disorders—also beset canines.
As a result, our beloved companions are vexed with preventable health problems throughout much of their lives and suffer shorter life spans. Because our pets can’t make health and lifestyle decisions for themselves, it’s up to pet parents to make smart, science-backed choices for lasting vitality and health.
The Forever Dog gives us the practical, proven tools to protect our loyal four-legged companions. Rodney Habib and Karen Becker, DVM, globetrotted (pre-pandemic) to galvanize the best wisdom from top geneticists, microbiologists, and longevity researchers; they also interviewed people whose dogs have lived into their 20s and even 30s.
The result is this unprecedented and comprehensive guide, filled with surprising information, invaluable advice, and inspiring stories about dogs and the people who love them.
“A must-read guide…to keep tails wagging for as long as possible.”
ENLIGHTENMENT
Short Squeez Picks
DAILY VISUAL
Share of Companies Nearshoring Their Supply Chains Tripled This Year
Share of supply chain leaders who say their company took actions to nearshore production
Source: Axios
DAILY ACUMEN
No Worries
Mark Twain, the witty guy he was, said, “I am an old man and have known a great many troubles, but most of them never happened.” Pretty insightful, huh?
A study from Cornell University dropped a truth bomb: 85% of what people worried about never actually happened. That’s a whole lot of stress for nothing. But, here’s the silver lining: of the worries that did come true, 79% weren't nearly as bad as folks feared. They handled those issues way better than expected!
Let’s crunch some numbers: ((100%-85%) x (100%-79%)) = 3%. That means only 3% of our worries are as dreadful as we imagine. Tiny, right?
Twain put it perfectly: worrying is like paying a debt you don’t owe. So, what say we stop making payments on imaginary debts? Life’s too short, and we’ve got better things to do with our time and energy.
If this hit home for you, pass it along to a friend. We could all use a little less worry and a lot more living, don’t you think? Cheers to focusing on the real stuff 🥂
MEME-A-PALOOZA
Memes of the Day
Join the conversation